jeffmerk wrote:I wouldn't expect Lawrie to have more value than Headley until 2015, at the earliest.
Somebody needs a regression lesson. Headley hit 4 HR in 2/3 of a season in 2011, a year that Lawrie hit 9 HR in a late season callup as a 21 year old. Headley plays on a terrible team in a horrible park for hitters. Up until the second half of last season he was barely a lock for double digit homeruns and almost a guarantee to be a sinkhole for R and RBI. Lawrie is a superstar in the making, surrounded by 4 extremely gifted hitters at the top of an excellent lineup, in an excellent hitters park. You're putting way too much stock into a 2 month sample amongst an otherwise mediocre 5 year career bereft of an OPS starting with a number other than 7.
Lawrie might one day become a stud but it's not likely to happen right away. Headley' could easily be traded to a better hitting situation.
Its not like Headley cant produce or hasnt, look at his road splits over his career. And in actuality his road OPS was higher then Miggy's last year, the dude can hit, hes just been stuck in Petco. Fences in, and in all honesty that lineup once Cabrera and Forsythe came up last year was a hell of a lot better, 100 games of Quentin and Grandal behind him isnt bad, and Alonso also started to hit down the stretch, then there's Maybin and Venorfia platoon, the lineup is better then most believe.
ZiPS has Headley at a 268/350/428 slash line. Lawrie at 275/332/461. Not a huge difference. And with all the roiding up the Padres have been doing, maybe Headley's monstrous breakout is sustainable, as long as he's able to maintain his supply. Apparently he pays for better stuff than the aforementioned Everth and Yasmani.
And yes, if he gets out of Petco obviously that's a huge boost for him. But I wouldn't count on that happening, and if it does, it will probably be 2/3 of the way through the season anyway, so you're only looking at maybe a 50/50 chance that 16% of his games are played in a different ballpark which may or may not be hitter friendly.
Tough choice, a question of how much Headley regresses versus how much Lawrie improves. I personally have Headley 8th and Lawrie 9th on my 3B rankings, but for me it's a toss-up. For now I'll go Headley, I do expect power regression, but overall I think he still edges out Lawrie this year. I play in a couple OBP leagues, and in those it's no contest for me. I also agree with Ender in that I think I'll be avoiding both of them. Both going a bit high for my tastes.
Yeah, I'm not likely drafting either Lawrie or Headley...I'll grab someone before or after them...usually if I'm left with this decision I'll just go to another position and wait a couple more rounds on 3B.