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Lawrie or Headley

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Re: Lawrie or Headley

Postby Padsin05 » Thu Feb 21, 2013 10:07 pm

jeffmerk wrote:
Skin Blues wrote:
jeffmerk wrote:I wouldn't expect Lawrie to have more value than Headley until 2015, at the earliest.

Somebody needs a regression lesson. Headley hit 4 HR in 2/3 of a season in 2011, a year that Lawrie hit 9 HR in a late season callup as a 21 year old. Headley plays on a terrible team in a horrible park for hitters. Up until the second half of last season he was barely a lock for double digit homeruns and almost a guarantee to be a sinkhole for R and RBI. Lawrie is a superstar in the making, surrounded by 4 extremely gifted hitters at the top of an excellent lineup, in an excellent hitters park. You're putting way too much stock into a 2 month sample amongst an otherwise mediocre 5 year career bereft of an OPS starting with a number other than 7.

Lawrie might one day become a stud but it's not likely to happen right away. Headley' could easily be traded to a better hitting situation.


Its not like Headley cant produce or hasnt, look at his road splits over his career. And in actuality his road OPS was higher then Miggy's last year, the dude can hit, hes just been stuck in Petco. Fences in, and in all honesty that lineup once Cabrera and Forsythe came up last year was a hell of a lot better, 100 games of Quentin and Grandal behind him isnt bad, and Alonso also started to hit down the stretch, then there's Maybin and Venorfia platoon, the lineup is better then most believe.

You dont drive in 115 runs in a bad lineup
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Re: Lawrie or Headley

Postby Skin Blues » Fri Feb 22, 2013 1:57 am

ZiPS has Headley at a 268/350/428 slash line. Lawrie at 275/332/461. Not a huge difference. And with all the roiding up the Padres have been doing, maybe Headley's monstrous breakout is sustainable, as long as he's able to maintain his supply. Apparently he pays for better stuff than the aforementioned Everth and Yasmani.

And yes, if he gets out of Petco obviously that's a huge boost for him. But I wouldn't count on that happening, and if it does, it will probably be 2/3 of the way through the season anyway, so you're only looking at maybe a 50/50 chance that 16% of his games are played in a different ballpark which may or may not be hitter friendly.
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Re: Lawrie or Headley

Postby Scooter1027 » Sun Feb 24, 2013 1:45 am

Tough choice, a question of how much Headley regresses versus how much Lawrie improves. I personally have Headley 8th and Lawrie 9th on my 3B rankings, but for me it's a toss-up. For now I'll go Headley, I do expect power regression, but overall I think he still edges out Lawrie this year. I play in a couple OBP leagues, and in those it's no contest for me. I also agree with Ender in that I think I'll be avoiding both of them. Both going a bit high for my tastes.
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Re: Lawrie or Headley

Postby Ender » Wed Feb 27, 2013 12:32 pm

I was actually hit with this in a mock draft where they both fell and I ended up going with Headley so I guess I have changed opinions.
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Re: Lawrie or Headley

Postby Izenhart » Wed Feb 27, 2013 2:17 pm

Ender wrote:I was actually hit with this in a mock draft where they both fell and I ended up going with Headley so I guess I have changed opinions.


I lean toward Headley myself. I won't lose sleep over picking Lawrie instead though.
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Re: Lawrie or Headley

Postby rookies and cream » Wed Feb 27, 2013 2:30 pm

Izenhart wrote:
Ender wrote:I was actually hit with this in a mock draft where they both fell and I ended up going with Headley so I guess I have changed opinions.


I lean toward Headley myself. I won't lose sleep over picking Lawrie instead though.


Most, including myself, would pick Headley>Lawrie. But the more relevant question is, would you rather pick Headley in the 4th round or Lawrie 1-2 rounds later?
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Re: Lawrie or Headley

Postby Ender » Wed Feb 27, 2013 4:57 pm

The answer is one of the next tier 3B that go like 6+ rounds after both of them.
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Re: Lawrie or Headley

Postby RocketsDWM » Wed Feb 27, 2013 8:20 pm

I usually find myself in mocks with the decision of Lawrie or Sandoval.
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Re: Lawrie or Headley

Postby jeffmerk » Wed Feb 27, 2013 8:56 pm

RocketsDWM wrote:I usually find myself in mocks with the decision of Lawrie or Sandoval.

I'd go with Sandoval. I don't think that this will be Lawrie's breakout season.
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Re: Lawrie or Headley

Postby J35J » Wed Feb 27, 2013 11:23 pm

Yeah, I'm not likely drafting either Lawrie or Headley...I'll grab someone before or after them...usually if I'm left with this decision I'll just go to another position and wait a couple more rounds on 3B.
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