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Lawrie or Headley

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Re: Lawrie or Headley

Postby HighHeater » Wed Feb 20, 2013 12:55 pm

Padsin05 wrote:
Mookie4ever wrote:I'm not touching Headley with a ten foot pole. His slugging % 2009 .392, 2010 .375, 2011 .399 and then last year the guy blasts up to .498. Even worse it was around .400 for the first half and then .573 in the second half of the season.
Who goes up .200 slugging that suddenly and adds that much muscle at the age of 28 and how do you get this muscle?
Dude should be giving urine samples every 20 minutes.

Lawrie is a stud who will score 125 runs this year while going at least 20/20


Ill take that bet.

125 runs??

btw Headley hit 21 HR's as a AA prospect when he was 21. He has the power. He adjusted his game to Petco over the years, and finally put it all together. He has been a more valuable player then David Wright over the last 3 seasons, who everyone loves.

Now I wont touch either of them in the first 5 rounds personally, but as a 27 yr old who put together a huge year, it reminds me of a time when 27 was the breakout season, for a lot of guys, and 27-32 are peak performance years, I expect top 6 numbers out of Chase at the hot corner.


this thread is the perfect example of hype, i agree with your assessment. Not too many really think Headley was ever this good as a spec but they fail to have either followed him or checked his minor #'s. i might seem like an advocate of Headley here but in reality im not, just a realist. I love Lawrie, he would be my pick over just about everyone at the hot corner if i was starting up a dyno league long term, however people get caught up in this stuff all the time, i heard the same stuff with Alvarez, Moustakas... until he even puts up a "Kyle Seager" year then there's not much an argument to take a chance on him over a young in his prime hitter such as Headley. The odds are incredibly stacked against Lawrie out-producing Headley this year, im not saying its IMPOSSIBLE but its not a gamble id make personally for this year.
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Re: Lawrie or Headley

Postby jeffmerk » Wed Feb 20, 2013 1:16 pm

I wouldn't expect Lawrie to have more value than Headley until 2015, at the earliest.
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Re: Lawrie or Headley

Postby ensanimal » Wed Feb 20, 2013 9:30 pm

I smell a sig bet coming!!
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Re: Lawrie or Headley

Postby Mookie4ever » Wed Feb 20, 2013 9:57 pm

ensanimal wrote:I smell a sig bet coming!!


Nah. That's my Eau de Chacin that you smell.
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Re: Lawrie or Headley

Postby Skin Blues » Wed Feb 20, 2013 9:59 pm

jeffmerk wrote:I wouldn't expect Lawrie to have more value than Headley until 2015, at the earliest.

Somebody needs a regression lesson. Headley hit 4 HR in 2/3 of a season in 2011, a year that Lawrie hit 9 HR in a late season callup as a 21 year old. Headley plays on a terrible team in a horrible park for hitters. Up until the second half of last season he was barely a lock for double digit homeruns and almost a guarantee to be a sinkhole for R and RBI. Lawrie is a superstar in the making, surrounded by 4 extremely gifted hitters at the top of an excellent lineup, in an excellent hitters park. You're putting way too much stock into a 2 month sample amongst an otherwise mediocre 5 year career bereft of an OPS starting with a number other than 7.
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Re: Lawrie or Headley

Postby OBPlover » Thu Feb 21, 2013 2:44 am

Skin Blues wrote:
jeffmerk wrote:I wouldn't expect Lawrie to have more value than Headley until 2015, at the earliest.

Somebody needs a regression lesson. Headley hit 4 HR in 2/3 of a season in 2011, a year that Lawrie hit 9 HR in a late season callup as a 21 year old. Headley plays on a terrible team in a horrible park for hitters. Up until the second half of last season he was barely a lock for double digit homeruns and almost a guarantee to be a sinkhole for R and RBI. Lawrie is a superstar in the making, surrounded by 4 extremely gifted hitters at the top of an excellent lineup, in an excellent hitters park. You're putting way too much stock into a 2 month sample amongst an otherwise mediocre 5 year career bereft of an OPS starting with a number other than 7.


Lawrie isn't exactly "surrounded by hitters". He's projected to bat 6th in this year's lineup. That alone will put a ceiling on his run/RBI counting stats. Rely upon JP arencibia and Colby Rasmus to drive you in?

Also, Rogers Centre park factor regressed to be only 15th overall and PEtco is moving in the fences. The stadium difference isn't as great as you think.
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Re: Lawrie or Headley

Postby AussieDodger » Thu Feb 21, 2013 2:58 am

Skin Blues wrote:
jeffmerk wrote:I wouldn't expect Lawrie to have more value than Headley until 2015, at the earliest.

Somebody needs a regression lesson. Headley hit 4 HR in 2/3 of a season in 2011, a year that Lawrie hit 9 HR in a late season callup as a 21 year old. Headley plays on a terrible team in a horrible park for hitters. Up until the second half of last season he was barely a lock for double digit homeruns and almost a guarantee to be a sinkhole for R and RBI. Lawrie is a superstar in the making, surrounded by 4 extremely gifted hitters at the top of an excellent lineup, in an excellent hitters park. You're putting way too much stock into a 2 month sample amongst an otherwise mediocre 5 year career bereft of an OPS starting with a number other than 7.


Players aren't robots.
When I see someone have a year like Headley's 2012, it makes me think he's probably learnt some new hitting strategy or technique and there's a good chance SOME of that power will make it to the next season.
It feels like some of us saber-inclined guys see half a season of improvement and automatically assume "ZOMG ANOMALY! DOES NOT COMPUTE! FORMER STAT LEVELS WILL RESUME SHORTLY"... and I hate that.

It's not like Headley waited till September and blasted all the rookies and AAAA pitchers either....April was pretty good (83 ABs, 10 XBH, 19/25 BB/K, .217 ISO) and in both August AND September he had an ISO of over .300.... .300!

Here's my guesstimate: Headley will produce at his April 2012 level over the course of the 2013 season (if healthy of course).
So (6x April) 498 AB, 60 XBH, 24 HRs, 114/150 BB/K, .217 ISO, 12 SB.

Will Lawrie get somewhere near that in 2013? It's always possible, but I doubt it.
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Re: Lawrie or Headley

Postby HighHeater » Thu Feb 21, 2013 7:58 am

AussieDodger wrote:
Skin Blues wrote:
jeffmerk wrote:I wouldn't expect Lawrie to have more value than Headley until 2015, at the earliest.

Somebody needs a regression lesson. Headley hit 4 HR in 2/3 of a season in 2011, a year that Lawrie hit 9 HR in a late season callup as a 21 year old. Headley plays on a terrible team in a horrible park for hitters. Up until the second half of last season he was barely a lock for double digit homeruns and almost a guarantee to be a sinkhole for R and RBI. Lawrie is a superstar in the making, surrounded by 4 extremely gifted hitters at the top of an excellent lineup, in an excellent hitters park. You're putting way too much stock into a 2 month sample amongst an otherwise mediocre 5 year career bereft of an OPS starting with a number other than 7.


Players aren't robots.
When I see someone have a year like Headley's 2012, it makes me think he's probably learnt some new hitting strategy or technique and there's a good chance SOME of that power will make it to the next season.
It feels like some of us saber-inclined guys see half a season of improvement and automatically assume "ZOMG ANOMALY! DOES NOT COMPUTE! FORMER STAT LEVELS WILL RESUME SHORTLY"... and I hate that.

It's not like Headley waited till September and blasted all the rookies and AAAA pitchers either....April was pretty good (83 ABs, 10 XBH, 19/25 BB/K, .217 ISO) and in both August AND September he had an ISO of over .300.... .300!

Here's my guesstimate: Headley will produce at his April 2012 level over the course of the 2013 season (if healthy of course).
So (6x April) 498 AB, 60 XBH, 24 HRs, 114/150 BB/K, .217 ISO, 12 SB.

Will Lawrie get somewhere near that in 2013? It's always possible, but I doubt it.


this is exactly my feeling too aussie, i don't get how people think holy crap he will regress ALL the way back either. its very possible with a full healthy year Headley will produce his norm BA with 20-25HR and about 12SB... now how likely is it we see Lawrie produce that? Are we all forgetting this kid flopped last year too? it's going to be incredibly risky for us to predict that this year imo.
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Re: Lawrie or Headley

Postby Ender » Thu Feb 21, 2013 10:18 am

this is exactly my feeling too aussie, i don't get how people think holy crap he will regress ALL the way back either. its very possible with a full healthy year Headley will produce his norm BA with 20-25HR and about 12SB... now how likely is it we see Lawrie produce that? Are we all forgetting this kid flopped last year too? it's going to be incredibly risky for us to predict that this year imo.


I don't disagree with you at all on Headley. I do expect him to hit 20 HR. I just think those stats should be expected out of Lawrie as well if he is healthy. Headley's 2nd half just screams unsustainable though. The way he stopped hitting doubles and spiked so much in HR while his overall skills stayed pretty flat except for the HR. I worry more about Lawrie's health than I do his talent. Personally I'm just avoiding them both. It really won't surprise me if a Todd Frazier, Martin Prado or Kevin Youkilis type matches either of these guys in value at the end of the year and those guys are all basically free.
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Re: Lawrie or Headley

Postby jeffmerk » Thu Feb 21, 2013 5:50 pm

Skin Blues wrote:
jeffmerk wrote:I wouldn't expect Lawrie to have more value than Headley until 2015, at the earliest.

Somebody needs a regression lesson. Headley hit 4 HR in 2/3 of a season in 2011, a year that Lawrie hit 9 HR in a late season callup as a 21 year old. Headley plays on a terrible team in a horrible park for hitters. Up until the second half of last season he was barely a lock for double digit homeruns and almost a guarantee to be a sinkhole for R and RBI. Lawrie is a superstar in the making, surrounded by 4 extremely gifted hitters at the top of an excellent lineup, in an excellent hitters park. You're putting way too much stock into a 2 month sample amongst an otherwise mediocre 5 year career bereft of an OPS starting with a number other than 7.

Lawrie might one day become a stud but it's not likely to happen right away. Headley' could easily be traded to a better hitting situation.
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