Where have we seen a proven Headley though? In 5 full seasons in the majors we've seen one 2 month stretch really worth taking in the first 10 rounds. The other 20 months or whatever have been late round flier material. He seems like one of the flukier guys out there.
Ender wrote:Where have we seen a proven Headley though? In 5 full seasons in the majors we've seen one 2 month stretch really worth taking in the first 10 rounds. The other 20 months or whatever have been late round flier material. He seems like one of the flukier guys out there.
Yeah I dont see Headley being on any of my teams unless he really falls.
Ender wrote:Where have we seen a proven Headley though? In 5 full seasons in the majors we've seen one 2 month stretch really worth taking in the first 10 rounds. The other 20 months or whatever have been late round flier material. He seems like one of the flukier guys out there.
Even with regressed numbers from last year Headley is still better then what Lawrie will give you as his ceiling this year. Its not like Headley will just drop off the face of the earth, hes not goi g to hit 30hr but he could reach 20-25 with the usual speed and high walks plus decent average. If you think Lawrie will do that this year by all means hes yours, just know your gambling on Lawrie for top value at a risk that way.
Ender wrote:Where have we seen a proven Headley though? In 5 full seasons in the majors we've seen one 2 month stretch really worth taking in the first 10 rounds. The other 20 months or whatever have been late round flier material. He seems like one of the flukier guys out there.
Even with regressed numbers from last year Headley is still better then what Lawrie will give you as his ceiling this year. Its not like Headley will just drop off the face of the earth, hes not goi g to hit 30hr but he could reach 20-25 with the usual speed and high walks plus decent average. If you think Lawrie will do that this year by all means hes yours, just know your gambling on Lawrie for top value at a risk that way.
Weaker lineup, slower runner, potentially lower HR even at 20. Lawrie's ceiling is miles ahead of Headley's. I could easily see Headley putting up a .275 AVG, 15 HR, 15 SB year with like 75 R, 80 RBI. Basically a Kyle Seager stat line. Nobody should be comfortable drafting Headley where he is going, you are taking a huge risk at that point.
What can you say - both are high risk/high reward picks. That being said, when uncertain, I don't assume. Headley is the guy who had the big 2012 and Lawrie was the flop. Headley is the guy who was at least healthy all of last year and Lawrie's Gung -Ho style makes him a constant injury risk. Plus they are moving in the fences at Petco.
Mathematically, what is more likely, Headley to flop huge and Lawrie to make a huge jump or both to keep doing what they did last year?
Ender wrote:Where have we seen a proven Headley though? In 5 full seasons in the majors we've seen one 2 month stretch really worth taking in the first 10 rounds. The other 20 months or whatever have been late round flier material. He seems like one of the flukier guys out there.
Even with regressed numbers from last year Headley is still better then what Lawrie will give you as his ceiling this year. Its not like Headley will just drop off the face of the earth, hes not goi g to hit 30hr but he could reach 20-25 with the usual speed and high walks plus decent average. If you think Lawrie will do that this year by all means hes yours, just know your gambling on Lawrie for top value at a risk that way.
Weaker lineup, slower runner, potentially lower HR even at 20. Lawrie's ceiling is miles ahead of Headley's. I could easily see Headley putting up a .275 AVG, 15 HR, 15 SB year with like 75 R, 80 RBI. Basically a Kyle Seager stat line. Nobody should be comfortable drafting Headley where he is going, you are taking a huge risk at that point.
I'm not seeing it, Headley is not as slow as you think and you are giving a kid who has shown nothing at the MLB level too much credit. Healdey is not going to regress that much to where you are saying unless he gets injured, that's almost halving his entire season last year, even pessimistically that's going over board. You take the kid who has flopped this year ill take the guy who put up a top 3B year in his prime that has proven himself for year 2013. Until Lawrie even proves to me he can put up a Kyle Seager year then ill be more optimistic. It's not like Headley never had talent or power his minor league #'s were very good he just had to have time to adjust in the bigs, something Lawrie will need to do.
Mathematically, what is more likely, Headley to flop huge and Lawrie to make a huge jump or both to keep doing what they did last year?
Probably Headley to flop given the track records including the minors and the context of the park and lineups.
totaly disagree, you would have to have one huge man-crush on Lawrie to think that way, regression is a given for Headley but to think he will regress to the point thats laughable is in itself laughable. someone needs a reminder what Headley did in the minors in my opinion.
I'm not touching Headley with a ten foot pole. His slugging % 2009 .392, 2010 .375, 2011 .399 and then last year the guy blasts up to .498. Even worse it was around .400 for the first half and then .573 in the second half of the season. Who goes up .200 slugging that suddenly and adds that much muscle at the age of 28 and how do you get this muscle? Dude should be giving urine samples every 20 minutes.
Lawrie is a stud who will score 125 runs this year while going at least 20/20
Mookie4ever wrote:I'm not touching Headley with a ten foot pole. His slugging % 2009 .392, 2010 .375, 2011 .399 and then last year the guy blasts up to .498. Even worse it was around .400 for the first half and then .573 in the second half of the season. Who goes up .200 slugging that suddenly and adds that much muscle at the age of 28 and how do you get this muscle? Dude should be giving urine samples every 20 minutes.
Lawrie is a stud who will score 125 runs this year while going at least 20/20
Ill take that bet.
125 runs??
btw Headley hit 21 HR's as a AA prospect when he was 21. He has the power. He adjusted his game to Petco over the years, and finally put it all together. He has been a more valuable player then David Wright over the last 3 seasons, who everyone loves.
Now I wont touch either of them in the first 5 rounds personally, but as a 27 yr old who put together a huge year, it reminds me of a time when 27 was the breakout season, for a lot of guys, and 27-32 are peak performance years, I expect top 6 numbers out of Chase at the hot corner.
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by Ender » Mon Feb 18, 2013 2:14 am 
