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Lawrie or Headley

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Lawrie or Headley

Postby goldtop » Sat Feb 16, 2013 12:49 pm

Which do you have more faith in?
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Re: Lawrie or Headley

Postby Montana168 » Sat Feb 16, 2013 1:06 pm

For me its Lawrie. Higher upside, younger, in a much better lineup, and in a much better hitter's park. Personally, I'm not buying Headley this year. 19 of his 31 HR came in the last 2 months last year, so I'm not buying a repeat of that HR/FB ratio until he proves he can produce 30+ HR again. Although I can see the argument that Lawrie has not produced a 20+ HR season so he would be inferior, however, I'll still lean toward the upside of Lawrie becoming the next David Wright.
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Re: Lawrie or Headley

Postby chargerss24 » Sat Feb 16, 2013 2:23 pm

goldtop wrote:Which do you have more faith in?


I too and sticking with the upside of Lawrie. Headley more than doubled his previous career high (12) which is one less than Lawrie had in his first full season despite playing 125 games. Headley's season seems fluky to me.
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Re: Lawrie or Headley

Postby Ender » Sat Feb 16, 2013 3:00 pm

I don't like either of them where they are being picked but I would go Lawrie as well.
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Re: Lawrie or Headley

Postby AussieDodger » Sat Feb 16, 2013 10:06 pm

If you're talking just what they did in 2012, Headley by far. They're not even on the same planet.

AB/XBH: Headley 9.44 (top echelon), Lawrie 12.35 (below average)
BB/K: Headley 0.55 (top echelon), Lawrie 0.38 (below average)

Lawrie was allowed to run slightly more then Headley...
AB/SBO: Lawrie 23.52 (top echelon), Headley 26.26 (top echelon)
....but Lawrie only has the advantage of two more opportunities per 500 ABs

If it's a re-draft I'm picking Headley and not even thinking about it.
If it's a keeper/dynasty, Lawrie just starting his age-23 season brings him a lot closer.....but I still pick Headley at his stage because he has the elite season on the board. He's also a huge chance of being traded to a better park this year or next.
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Re: Lawrie or Headley

Postby Padsin05 » Sat Feb 16, 2013 10:33 pm

they also moved in the fences at Petco, which should help Headley as well.

I expect a 25 hr 100+ rbi 15 sb year outta Chase.

Lawrie might get that, but Im not too sure yet.

both should hit around .280
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Re: Lawrie or Headley

Postby Element » Sat Feb 16, 2013 11:13 pm

AussieDodger wrote:If you're talking just what they did in 2012, Headley by far. They're not even on the same planet.

AB/XBH: Headley 9.44 (top echelon), Lawrie 12.35 (below average)
BB/K: Headley 0.55 (top echelon), Lawrie 0.38 (below average)

Lawrie was allowed to run slightly more then Headley...
AB/SBO: Lawrie 23.52 (top echelon), Headley 26.26 (top echelon)
....but Lawrie only has the advantage of two more opportunities per 500 ABs

If it's a re-draft I'm picking Headley and not even thinking about it.
If it's a keeper/dynasty, Lawrie just starting his age-23 season brings him a lot closer.....but I still pick Headley at his stage because he has the elite season on the board. He's also a huge chance of being traded to a better park this year or next.


;-D

Headley's 21.4% HR/FB is the only number that appears to be unsustainable. 20-25 HR, instead of 30+, but the other numbers should be roughly the same. Lawrie isn't there yet.
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Re: Lawrie or Headley

Postby Ender » Sat Feb 16, 2013 11:15 pm

I would be more surprised by 30 HR than I would by 20 HR to be honest. I have about as much faith in him repeating last year as I had in Ellsbury repeating his big year.
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Re: Lawrie or Headley

Postby fsbarren » Sat Feb 16, 2013 11:25 pm

Montana168 wrote:For me its Lawrie. Higher upside, younger, in a much better lineup, and in a much better hitter's park. Personally, I'm not buying Headley this year. 19 of his 31 HR came in the last 2 months last year, so I'm not buying a repeat of that HR/FB ratio until he proves he can produce 30+ HR again. Although I can see the argument that Lawrie has not produced a 20+ HR season so he would be inferior, however, I'll still lean toward the upside of Lawrie becoming the next David Wright.


I'm not sure about David Wright, but I'd still go with Lawrie. I guess I still have some Kool Aid left in my cup.
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Re: Lawrie or Headley

Postby HighHeater » Sun Feb 17, 2013 11:43 pm

There's absolutely no way im taking Lawrie over a proven Headley in a redraft... at all. Until Lawrie shows he can hang in the bigs there no need to suggest he will do what Headley did last year even with regressed numbers... (which would be lawries ceiling this year) Now in a keeper thats different.
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