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Curtis Granderson...

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Re: Curtis Granderson...

Postby ayebatter » Sun Feb 17, 2013 11:50 pm

Ender wrote:
ou are indeed a man of your word. You took Granderson 15th in the Cafe's Slow Mock. I was then intrigued/surprised to see that you took 5 OF with your first 5 picks:


His first 4 picks in the latest draft I'm in with him were Bautista, Granderson, Teix, BJ Upton so yeah he definitely practices what he preaches! Might be 2200 AB of sub .250 AVG right there. I on the other hand passed on Upton and Zobrist because I drafted Bruce and didn't want 2 AVG anchor's. I can't say I fully agree with ignoring AVG early, I think AVG and R are usually the underrated stats of fantasy baseball and the easier places to game the system on offense.



ayebatter wrote:Nobody's fantasy team ever end's up with as good or as bad a batting average as they project. I'm gonna own Granderson in every league I can after the 14th pick.


And if you look at that draft as a whole I stated that I'd have been satisfied with anything projected over .270 and ended up at .275 (my projections), and GF had me at .277 with his. Go back to your leagues last year and tell me that .275-.277 wouldn't have been at least middle to upper reaches of batting average for your league.
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Re: Curtis Granderson...

Postby GiantsFan14 » Mon Feb 18, 2013 12:38 am

Batting average is pretty easily the least predictable stat. Homeruns are pretty easily the most predictable. Those guys are falling further than they should because of age bias and that people are scared by low averages. Ayebatters draft looks pretty good to me.
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Re: Curtis Granderson...

Postby ayebatter » Mon Feb 18, 2013 12:55 am

GiantsFan14 wrote:Batting average is pretty easily the least predictable stat. Homeruns are pretty easily the most predictable. Those guys are falling further than they should because of age bias and that people are scared by low averages. Ayebatters draft looks pretty good to me.


And I/we thank all of you "high batting average" drafters. ;-D
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Re: Curtis Granderson...

Postby Ender » Mon Feb 18, 2013 1:48 am

Batting average is pretty easily the least predictable stat


This is a fallacy. It might have a wider range but it still ranges around a static point. While you may draft a true .250 team and get a .270 AVG you are just as likely to get a .230 and get a 1 in that category. Fielder ranges from 83 to 141 RBI in back to back years with the same lineup around him. Trying to predict anything is worthless, you are projecting and that means you don't really have any clue what will happen over a single season sample.
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Re: Curtis Granderson...

Postby Izenhart » Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:23 am

I don't care if he hits 50 home runs, if he hits .232 again and steals 10 bases I don't like his current draft position. Since both of those were career lows you are either in the school that believes he is fading due to age, or you think he will improve upon those numbers and keep his 35-40 HR power.

I'm in the second school of thought, and I'm expecting numbers around .250-95-35-100-10, but looking at who went after him in that draft (Cargo, Hamilton, Upton, A Jones) I don't think Granderson was great pick there. The next four OF's here could realistically put up those numbers and have a better BA. Granderson gets points for durability over CarGo and Hamilton, and Upton isn't very consistent, but at least these guys won't hurt you at all in BA and pitch in double digit SBs.

BA is as predictable as any stat. As ender said player's typically go up/down from a static point and last year Granderson was clearly down from his. As a .260 career hitter, I'd say his appetite for the longball has pushed his expected AVG down a bit. He had his highest K rate of his career last year, ran less and got dumped to the 6 hole in the lineup. This isn't someone I'm reaching for or expecting big improvement from, and to justify a pick inside the top 20 OA, he'd have to improve on last year's numbers or you will end up with a three category player early in round 2.
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Re: Curtis Granderson...

Postby Frenchiegangsta9 » Sun Feb 24, 2013 5:15 pm

better start revising those numbers...

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/02/a ... ioles.html
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Re: Curtis Granderson...

Postby JMB05 » Sun Feb 24, 2013 5:20 pm

It looked bad.

I knew it the second he got hit, he tried to shake it off and it wasn't happening.

Wrist injuries are notorious for sapping power, and it looks like the Yanks are in big trouble.
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Re: Curtis Granderson...

Postby ayebatter » Sun Feb 24, 2013 5:40 pm

Looks like a broken forearm out around 10 weeks.
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