Jackson coming off his best year of his career. Tigers recently hire a "base running couch" for jackson. What you guys think. Is old man leyland going to let him steal this year? Why would they hire a base running couch if they didnt have big sb plans for jackson?
Quackman wrote:Jackson coming off his best year of his career. Tigers recently hire a "base running couch" for jackson. What you guys think. Is old man leyland going to let him steal this year? Why would they hire a base running couch if they didnt have big sb plans for jackson?
The success rate needed to give stealing in front of Fielder and MCab a positive value has got to be pretty high. His career rate is pretty bad and it was the worst it's ever been last year. He clearly needs some work, but I doubt they're just gonna let him run wild. I'd put him between 15-20 steals for next year.
Ya maybe they hired the base running couch only bc he is so bad. I mean he has the speed i really think he does. Little exciting just thinking of the possibility of Jackson being a sb guy. I think your 15-20 is most likely but im crossing my fingers for 30+.
If you look at Jackson's splits last season, he started out strong and slowly and consistently tapered off as the season went along. (hit .400 in may, .317 in june, .304 in july, .263 in August...you get the point) This makes me wonder if pitchers were figuring him out a little more as the season went along which would require some adjustments on his part in 2013. However, his runs, BB, and SO stayed consistent all year.
He also was 0-4 in 2012 attempting to steal on lefties and didn't reach on a single bunt. This would lead me to believe that he has to have a big lead to steal a base, hinting that he: a. doesn't get good jumps, b. doesn't really have the base running speed everybody hoped he would.
All that said, I think his floor of production for 2013 is: 98 R, 14 HR, 56 RBI, 10 SB, .270 BA and the ceiling for his production for 2013 is: 110 R, 18 HR, 78 RBI, 16 SB, .305 BA
In most fantasy leagues, he'll get drafted higher than his numbers would suggest he should. He really only does 1 thing really good and that's score runs and I predict he'll show that again this year.
Quackman wrote:2 drafts so far drafted him in 7th and 6th round. Pretty early i thought.
Exactly, he seems to be over-hyped by most everybody. Sporting News' Mock Draft has him going in the 10th round #116. I would say that is closer to a realistic slot but won't spend too much time looking at him because somebody will take him before he needs to go.
Quackman wrote:2 drafts so far drafted him in 7th and 6th round. Pretty early i thought.
Exactly, he seems to be over-hyped by most everybody. Sporting News' Mock Draft has him going in the 10th round #116. I would say that is closer to a realistic slot but won't spend too much time looking at him because somebody will take him before he needs to go.
The base running coach seems to be the big thing. They really dont run him often at all and maybe that will change this year. Suddenly hiring a personal coach like that is not very common thing to do at all. Estimating 15sb or something is basiclaly saying there will be no difference in stats. Im not so sure
Quackman wrote:2 drafts so far drafted him in 7th and 6th round. Pretty early i thought.
Exactly, he seems to be over-hyped by most everybody. Sporting News' Mock Draft has him going in the 10th round #116. I would say that is closer to a realistic slot but won't spend too much time looking at him because somebody will take him before he needs to go.
The base running coach seems to be the big thing. They really dont run him often at all and maybe that will change this year. Suddenly hiring a personal coach like that is not very common thing to do at all. Estimating 15sb or something is basiclaly saying there will be no difference in stats. Im not so sure
I doubt the base running coach will make that big of a difference.
Note that as his power production increased his speed production decreased. He is getting slower, base running coach won't fix that. The fact that he only ran 4 times on lefties in 2012 and got caught all 4 times says he needs a larger lead to swipe bags. (another indication that he is getting slower) If the new base running coach can help him produce 25% more bases (15 Total Steals compared to 12) in 2013 than in 2012 the Tigers would call that a success.
askretzinger wrote: Exactly, he seems to be over-hyped by most everybody. Sporting News' Mock Draft has him going in the 10th round #116. I would say that is closer to a realistic slot but won't spend too much time looking at him because somebody will take him before he needs to go.
The base running coach seems to be the big thing. They really dont run him often at all and maybe that will change this year. Suddenly hiring a personal coach like that is not very common thing to do at all. Estimating 15sb or something is basiclaly saying there will be no difference in stats. Im not so sure
I doubt the base running coach will make that big of a difference.
Note that as his power production increased his speed production decreased. He is getting slower, base running coach won't fix that. The fact that he only ran 4 times on lefties in 2012 and got caught all 4 times says he needs a larger lead to swipe bags. (another indication that he is getting slower) If the new base running coach can help him produce 25% more bases (15 Total Steals compared to 12) in 2013 than in 2012 the Tigers would call that a success.
good points. last year was just really bad for sb if you look at those years. Id love the 27 from 2010. I dont see how he could be getting slower since hes only 26. Id think its more of a technique thing and maybe that can be corrected. maybe its wishful thinking i know that.
remember also his strikeouts when down and walks went up in those same 3 years. That means alot for a leadoff hitter.
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by Quackman » Thu Feb 14, 2013 3:24 am 
