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Yu Darvish apparently a fantasy ace?

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Yu Darvish apparently a fantasy ace?

Postby Ender » Thu Feb 14, 2013 1:59 am

This is one of those things I just don't get at all. I like Yu Darvish, I expect him to have a good year. I just think where he is being drafted in many leagues is insane. Paul Sporer who I admire greatly and who sells his own pitching handbook and I suggest you buy it, drafted him over Cole Hamels in a LABR draft recently. http://www.rtsports.com/LABR-Mixed-Draft.

Lets take a real look at Darvish here.

I will start this off by saying it is just as likely that the league adjusts to him as he adjusts to the league so assuming there will be a giant step one way or the other is probably being overly optimistic or pessimistic. He gave up a wOBA of .293 or higher every month last year except September. Basically Sept saved him from being a big disappointment for most. His stats last year were 3.90/1.28, 16 W, 221 K.

Hamels gave up wOBA of .293 or higher 2 months. His stats were 3.05/1.12, 17 W, 216 K. So he beat Darvish in every single stat except K which was close while being more consistent and having a longer track record of success.

I got pumped up about the big Sept of Darvish too but lets not read too much into this. He is going at an insane draft position in most drafts. He is going over guys like Cain, Hamels, Wainright and Bumgarner who all have longer track records and were better than him last year. You never want to draft a guy where he HAS to break out to be worth his pick, that just isn't value. Even if Darvish breaks out most of those who are drafting him this early aren't gaining any value.
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Re: Yu Darvish apparently a fantasy ace?

Postby AussieDodger » Thu Feb 14, 2013 2:23 am

Yeah Darvish isn't anywhere near that top level of Hamels/Verlander/Felix

He is one skill away from getting there, his BB/9 of 4.19 wasn't up to scratch.
His K/9 (10.4) and limiting of XBH were ace-like, so if he can repeat those and weigh in with a BB/9 of around 2.5......... $$$$
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Re: Yu Darvish apparently a fantasy ace?

Postby fsbarren » Thu Feb 14, 2013 5:45 am

I can definitely see Darvish as a top 20 pitcher, maybe better, but at this point I just can't believe he is being drafted above Cain and Hamels. Wow...
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Re: Yu Darvish apparently a fantasy ace?

Postby Skin Blues » Thu Feb 14, 2013 12:07 pm

He could very easily be better than Hamels but I wouldn't pay for the upside when we already know what Hamels can do. We know Darvish can strike out MLB hitters at a very high rate (2nd in the majors in K% by a wide margin), and we know that he had elite+ control in Japan, but he hasn't put it all together yet so I'd be hesitant. The upside is very tempting. Playing half his games in Arlington certainly makes me even more skeptical, though. at least he'll get a bunch of games against the Astros, heh.
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Re: Yu Darvish apparently a fantasy ace?

Postby converge241 » Thu Feb 14, 2013 12:21 pm

in that draft you reference maybe the guy was just worried about this cole hamels possible injury news?

I could see people taking him over wainwright or bumgarner (not saying thats "correct" or not but could see folks doing it)

Cain is an odd case, hes so good but theses past 2-3 years in many drafts and auctions I get a good deal on him, much cheaper than many names i consider lower, so theres some different type of public perception so to speak around him? Example last year just one auction Haren 34$ I got Cain for $6. Jered $40, Halladay $60 Darvish $25 Lincecum $64 now a lot of that has to do with when a player is thrown etc but even if halladay had a great year or Lincecum they arent worth 50 plus more dollars

There's no way I personally would go Darvish>Cain but maybe thats in play (the cain value that I see happen in some leagues)

Im pretty sure as of today there's no way I would do cole over Darvish BUT when the next actual draft comes id have to really read through most current stuff on him, postive news, setback etc
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Re: Yu Darvish apparently a fantasy ace?

Postby converge241 » Thu Feb 14, 2013 12:22 pm

sidenote - I have been reading a few things that some "experts" think he will make that progression rather than regress as MLB figures him out

Not sure how I feel on that but sharing it.

He will likely go for higher than I would pay in almost every league but can keep him as a 21st rounder in one (drafted him before he posted).
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Re: Yu Darvish apparently a fantasy ace?

Postby GiantsFan14 » Thu Feb 14, 2013 1:22 pm

I'd be fine with him as my #1. His FIP, xFIP, and xERA were all quite a bit lower than his actual ERA. He has elite K numbers and plays on a good team. I wouldn't take him over Hamels but I've still got him as my 12th SP overall.
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Re: Yu Darvish apparently a fantasy ace?

Postby Ender » Thu Feb 14, 2013 1:33 pm

GiantsFan14 wrote:I'd be fine with him as my #1. His FIP, xFIP, and xERA were all quite a bit lower than his actual ERA. He has elite K numbers and plays on a good team. I wouldn't take him over Hamels but I've still got him as my 12th SP overall.


Yeah I don't have a problem at all with him as my #1 so the title is a bit misleading I guess~. I just don't think he should be going as high as he has been. His NFBC ranking at pick #63 isn't too bad compared to the other pitchers. Dickey, Sale, Wainwright going right after him, 3 guys with the same type of upside but with question marks as well.
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Re: Yu Darvish apparently a fantasy ace?

Postby Pogotheostrich » Thu Feb 14, 2013 1:39 pm

Darvish seems to be creeping up a lot of rankings. I love him but over Hamels is insane. Around Wainwright and Bumgarner seems about right to me. Right around the 15th SP.
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Re: Yu Darvish apparently a fantasy ace?

Postby bayside » Fri Feb 15, 2013 1:35 am

I dont know about other sites but on Yahoo his current ADP is ~60, as the 16th SP off the board. Seems perfectly fine to me.
That is right in between Wainwright/Gio and Halladay Sale.

Thats more like solid #2 than fantasy ace.
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