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2013's "Jose Bautista"

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2013's "Jose Bautista"

Postby SpecialFNK » Wed Feb 13, 2013 8:12 pm

Jose Bautista broke out in a big way back in 2010 with 54 HR/124 RBI, after only having 13 HR/40 RBI in 2009.
there was some evidence that Bautista was going to break out when he had 8 HR in September of 2009.
my question is this, which player or players (if any) will break out in the same way Bautista did in 2010? maybe there are one or more players that had good/great numbers in September of last season to show potential for a break out in 2013.
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Re: 2013's "Jose Bautista"

Postby OBPlover » Wed Feb 13, 2013 8:50 pm

Stop right there, don't use strong Septembers as a sign that a player is going to breakout the next year.

Most major league players have streaks where they look awesome at some point during a long, long, season. IF they streak in September, people just assume they have hit a new level and will be great the next year.

Didn't Derek Lee have a great Sept 2009 only to fall apart the next year?
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Re: 2013's "Jose Bautista"

Postby Havok1517 » Wed Feb 13, 2013 9:35 pm

OBPlover wrote:Stop right there, don't use strong Septembers as a sign that a player is going to breakout the next year.

Most major league players have streaks where they look awesome at some point during a long, long, season. IF they streak in September, people just assume they have hit a new level and will be great the next year.

Didn't Derek Lee have a great Sept 2009 only to fall apart the next year?


I think the theory is as good as the age 27 for hitters or age 29 for pitchers and age 32 for catcher theory.

I believe Homer Bailey would fit your criteria and he carried is through to the post-season.
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Re: 2013's

Postby bayside » Wed Feb 13, 2013 9:51 pm

The chances of another 2010 Bautista type season are really remote.
He was never a top prospect and never considered an elite talent that had that huge breakout potential.
Interesting reading: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2010/6/3 ... e-bautista
And as HGH/PED testing becomes more stringent the likelihood decreases even more (not saying that Bautista was a user).
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Re: 2013's "Jose Bautista"

Postby SpecialFNK » Wed Feb 13, 2013 9:53 pm

OBPlover wrote:Stop right there, don't use strong Septembers as a sign that a player is going to breakout the next year.

Most major league players have streaks where they look awesome at some point during a long, long, season. IF they streak in September, people just assume they have hit a new level and will be great the next year.

Didn't Derek Lee have a great Sept 2009 only to fall apart the next year?



I remember back after Bautista's 2010 season debating whether he could repeat it, one of the things people would mention is that Bautista made a change in his swing or something back in September of the previous season.

I was hoping to find that player who could break out, that might be someone coming out of nowhere. not the typical player being hyped up for a break out season. not many would have predicted a breakout for Bautista.
maybe Chris Davis is another example, someone who broke out in 2012.
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Re: 2013's "Jose Bautista"

Postby ayebatter » Wed Feb 13, 2013 11:21 pm

SpecialFNK wrote: Bautista made a change in his swing



Correct, but I don't have another for you this year. Two guys that could reach 40+ this year are Ike Davis and Jay Bruce, but that's just a feeling.
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Re: 2013's "Jose Bautista"

Postby Ender » Wed Feb 13, 2013 11:34 pm

Yeah this is a pretty poor way to search for the next big guy. By the way the age 27 year thing is a complete myth. What you generally want to do is target players in their 3rd or 4th full season. Go look through players at random and notice that most of them see some sort of spike in production in their 3rd or 4th year. It just happens for most players that is their age 26-28 seasons.

As for hidden power guys I'd look at guys like Justin Maxwell. Gets the ball in the air a lot, has very good power, can take a walk, but needs to make more contact to put it all together.
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Re: 2013's "Jose Bautista"

Postby OBPlover » Wed Feb 13, 2013 11:51 pm

The thing is that Jose Bautista in 2009 had a really nice walk rate. That's critical.

Look for players that have good HR/PA rates in limited time AND a good BB%. to find your next Bautista.

If a guy is a patient hitter I'll gamble on him at any time.

One guy that might fit the bill is Chris Carter. he has great power and had a pretty good BB% rate last year in limited time. But now you have to expect he gets every day playing time with Houston.

As far as top prospects, just remember at one point Mike Piazza was basically unwanted. Evaluate stats and not scouting reports.
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Re: 2013's "Jose Bautista"

Postby bayside » Thu Feb 14, 2013 12:32 am

OBPlover wrote:
As far as top prospects, just remember at one point Mike Piazza was basically unwanted. Evaluate stats and not scouting reports.

Thats completely besides the point. in 1992 Piazza was one of the top prospects in all of baseball. He destroyed both AA and AAA. And then went on to crush MLB pitching in his rookie 1993 season.
Draft status =/= prospect status.
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Re: 2013's "Jose Bautista"

Postby Ender » Thu Feb 14, 2013 12:59 am

bayside wrote:
OBPlover wrote:
As far as top prospects, just remember at one point Mike Piazza was basically unwanted. Evaluate stats and not scouting reports.

Thats completely besides the point. in 1992 Piazza was one of the top prospects in all of baseball. He destroyed both AA and AAA. And then went on to crush MLB pitching in his rookie 1993 season.
Draft status =/= prospect status.

Piazza was unwanted as a 1B. It took him changing to C in the minors to make him a real prospect.
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