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Verlander or Kershaw?

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Verlander or Kershaw?

Postby theghostwriter » Wed Feb 13, 2013 1:13 pm

Hey guys,

14 team H2H points based league where pitching (and especially innings, quality starts, and wins) is weighted very heavily. I have the first overall pick. It's a keeper league but you can't keep top three picks. Due to the offense I inherited from my previous owner, I'm thinking I'm going with a pitcher first overall.

The question: Verlander or Kershaw for 2013 alone? I know we're nitpicking at this point, but with the first overall pick I want to get it right. They're already similarly valued players; I'm just wondering if anyone thinks that Kershaw could kick it into the next gear this year, or if Verlander's track record would make him a better No. 1 pick.
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Re: Verlander or Kershaw?

Postby Brainstorm » Wed Feb 13, 2013 1:51 pm

If you can't keep top 3 picks, I would think a Braun or Miggy is out there. No matter how good your hitting keepers are, I couldn't take either pitcher over these guys.

If you have to take a pitcher, I'd go Verlander. Not that I devalue Kershaw much, but he did have that hip issue late last season. Take the "safer" guy.
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Re: Verlander or Kershaw?

Postby theghostwriter » Wed Feb 13, 2013 2:07 pm

It's not so much "have to take a pitcher" but the fact that pitchers generally get upgraded roughly by roughly 20 percent due to how many points innings, quality starts, and wins get.

Verlander is definitely safer, but I have to wonder about Kershaw versus National League hitting, as well as Kershaw's still unscraped ceiling.
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Re: Verlander or Kershaw?

Postby lambo1203 » Wed Feb 13, 2013 3:49 pm

Agree with Brainstorm, no matter how inflated pitchers' points are, I think it's insane to take a pitcher #1, especially in a league that deep. I'd say Cabrera first pick...he plays everyday rather than every 5 games, putting less of a "risk/reward" player on your team, expecting points from Cabrera each week instead of hoping the best from a pitcher (even a great one) just once/twice a week.

But if you had to pick one, I'd go Verlander in a still not-so-great AL Central. Sure KC and Cle upgraded, but hardly any of the new players have seen Verlander before and Kershaw has the Giants to worry about, not to mention Coors Field and a shortened PetCo.

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Re: Verlander or Kershaw?

Postby MrT » Wed Feb 13, 2013 5:21 pm

If you are going with a pitcher you probably won't be winning so pick either one.
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Re: Verlander or Kershaw?

Postby theghostwriter » Wed Feb 13, 2013 5:47 pm

I've researched the draft history and half the first round is typically comprised of pitchers. The guys who win the league generally have an ace that they've picked round one or two, and my argument is that if I need an ace to compete in this league, and they'll be gone by pick 28, and I have the luxury of keeping Giancarlo Stanton in the 23rd round, why not just grab the best pitcher out there?
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Re: Verlander or Kershaw?

Postby GiantsFan14 » Wed Feb 13, 2013 6:29 pm

theghostwriter wrote:I've researched the draft history and half the first round is typically comprised of pitchers. The guys who win the league generally have an ace that they've picked round one or two, and my argument is that if I need an ace to compete in this league, and they'll be gone by pick 28, and I have the luxury of keeping Giancarlo Stanton in the 23rd round, why not just grab the best pitcher out there?


Three reasons:
1. Even with a 20% boost, the best pitchers are not as valuable as the best hitters.
2. Pitchers are inherently riskier (injuries/variance/etc).
3. Pitching is incredibly deep.

With all that in mind, it really doesn't make sense to draft a pitcher when you have the option to draft a guy like Braun. Rather than follow what the rest of the league does, you can exploit it to your benefit.
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Re: Verlander or Kershaw?

Postby theghostwriter » Wed Feb 13, 2013 7:10 pm

Five of the top six scorers last year were pitchers.
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Re: Verlander or Kershaw?

Postby rmessne » Wed Feb 13, 2013 7:18 pm

theghostwriter wrote:Five of the top six scorers last year were pitchers.


I think one thing you should remember is that in points leagues basically all pitchers may score more points, but there is a bigger discrepancy between the best and mediocre hitters. So naturally they are worth more.
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Re: Verlander or Kershaw?

Postby eric31216 » Wed Feb 13, 2013 7:28 pm

i'm not fond of taking pitchers in the first, but if you absolutely must, then i personally prefer kershaw
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