Which trade for Cueto?

[Ragoczy]

NL only 10 team 5x5 roty keeper with $260. Won the title last season and now it is rebuild time. Everyone wants my $8 J Cueto who can be kept this year and next. Mulling two offers-

A- A Rizzo $10 this year, $15 in '14 & '15 plus the #2 minor pick for Cueto and #3 minor pick.

B- N Arenado, T Skaggs, #7 pick and late 1st rounder in 2014 for Cueto and 2nd rounder in 2014.

Arenado and Skaggs are both minor leaguers still. Top minors available to be drafted are J Fernandez Mia, T D'Arnaud NYM, J Gyorko SD & J Soler Chi.

I expect to be competitive next year with a real chance to win in 2015. What deal is better?

Thanks!

[HOOTIE]

A
Cueto is a bit overrated.
I love Rizzo, and you then get either Fernandez or Darnaud.

[OBPlover]

Comments:

1) You got Cueto for only $8 in a 10 team NL only keeper league???

2) If you won last year, why are you rebuilding?

3) Cueto is not overrated. Worst case scenario, his ERA jumps somewhat. But with the Reds' team, I can't see how he isn't a lock for 15+ wins provided he's healthy. K/IP isn't everything.

Remember everyone thinking he was overrated is what bagged you him for pennies in the first place.

4) Rizzo is pretty good. But I'd ask for RIzzo and a decent quality established pitcher with upside as my price.

[HOOTIE]

You can't predict W at all.
Cueto has one over 12 games once.
In the last 2 years, he's gotten lucky with a low hr/fb ratio.

Rizzo plus the upgraded pick, is a lock to me.

[Pogotheostrich]

I still don't trust Cueto. I'd make the A deal.

[plamb23]

Rizzo plus

[ATLbraves]

Well to start, Cueto is not over rated IMO. He has established himself as a top 20 SP and he definitely deserves that ranking, IMO.
Cueto's FIP suggests that he can have a very similar year in 2013 as he did in 2012. I trust him, and I will gladly draft him again this year since he is always being drafted later then he should be.

Also another interesting stat I saw for Cueto:

First pitch strike % through Cueto's career (59.4%, 56.5%, 55.3%, 55.6%, 62.7%)



BUT, I do like Rizzo a lot this year. Especially in Chicago. So I think option A is a great deal for you.

[HOOTIE]

FIP ignores hr/fb ratio. xFIP is much better.

[kcbrett5]

I would go with "A". Rizzo and the upgrade in pick. D'arnaud would be a nice pick there.

[MadDog36]

A.....