2013 CLOSERS THREAD - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2015 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

2013 CLOSERS THREAD

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD

Postby Skin Blues » Thu May 09, 2013 10:31 am

Ender wrote:
Skin Blues wrote:
Ender wrote:It would be insanely stupid for the Dodgers to go with Jansen as the closer over League. But baseball in general misuses the bullpen so I'd expect most teams to waste their best RP in the closer role which is a lower leverage role than the setup one so they probably will end up going that way.

A quick look at 2012 (I'm on my phone, kinda tough) shows that essentially every team's highest leverage reliever was their closer. I can't find any exceptions. So why would it be "insanely stupid" for the Dodgers to use their best reliever as their closer, and therefore in the highest leverage situations?


If you look at gmLI which is the average LI when a pitcher enters the game over 50% of the top 30 from last year were setup guys. The point is that managers are grossly misusing their bullpens and by sticking your best RP in the setup role you actually end up using it more intelligently than the average manager even if it is on accident~.

That's an awfully creative way of looking at it. Only the Indians who had Vinnie Pestano and his 2.57 ERA (versus Chris Perez and his 3.59 ERA) used their setup man in higher leverage situations than their closer, and it seems like that was a good decision. That's not to say that bullpen usage is ideal, but in it's certainly not "insanely stupid" for a team to use their best relief pitcher as their closer.
Skin Blues
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 3082
(Past Year: 109)
Joined: 11 Apr 2010
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD

Postby eneric » Thu May 09, 2013 11:00 am

Skin Blues wrote:
Ender wrote:
Skin Blues wrote:A quick look at 2012 (I'm on my phone, kinda tough) shows that essentially every team's highest leverage reliever was their closer. I can't find any exceptions. So why would it be "insanely stupid" for the Dodgers to use their best reliever as their closer, and therefore in the highest leverage situations?


If you look at gmLI which is the average LI when a pitcher enters the game over 50% of the top 30 from last year were setup guys. The point is that managers are grossly misusing their bullpens and by sticking your best RP in the setup role you actually end up using it more intelligently than the average manager even if it is on accident~.

That's an awfully creative way of looking at it. Only the Indians who had Vinnie Pestano and his 2.57 ERA (versus Chris Perez and his 3.59 ERA) used their setup man in higher leverage situations than their closer, and it seems like that was a good decision. That's not to say that bullpen usage is ideal, but in it's certainly not "insanely stupid" for a team to use their best relief pitcher as their closer.


Image
Last edited by eneric on Thu May 09, 2013 1:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
eneric
College Coach
College Coach

User avatar

Posts: 341
(Past Year: 32)
Joined: 3 Jun 2008
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD

Postby Ender » Thu May 09, 2013 11:22 am

Skin Blues wrote:That's an awfully creative way of looking at it. Only the Indians who had Vinnie Pestano and his 2.57 ERA (versus Chris Perez and his 3.59 ERA) used their setup man in higher leverage situations than their closer, and it seems like that was a good decision. That's not to say that bullpen usage is ideal, but in it's certainly not "insanely stupid" for a team to use their best relief pitcher as their closer.


You can call it creative, I call it correct. The LI when the pitcher enters the game is what is most important, not what the LI is after they have finished the game. As an example, if I come in with a 3 run lead and walk the bases loaded, give up 2 runs and shut it down my LI will actually come out higher than if I come in with a 1 run lead and just strike out the side. The LI when the pitcher enters the game is what is most important to me for usage.

LI by itself just gives way too much credit to it being the 9th inning as well imo. Most of this comes down to usage patterns anyway. A manager will go to his closer in the 9th with a 3 run lead but they won't generally waste a setup guy with a 3 run lead in the 8th which in itself is just silly. Managing around the save stat is just awful.
Ender
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

CafeholicFantasy Expert
Posts: 7733
Joined: 30 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD

Postby Skin Blues » Thu May 09, 2013 11:54 am

Ender wrote:
Skin Blues wrote:That's an awfully creative way of looking at it. Only the Indians who had Vinnie Pestano and his 2.57 ERA (versus Chris Perez and his 3.59 ERA) used their setup man in higher leverage situations than their closer, and it seems like that was a good decision. That's not to say that bullpen usage is ideal, but in it's certainly not "insanely stupid" for a team to use their best relief pitcher as their closer.


You can call it creative, I call it correct. The LI when the pitcher enters the game is what is most important, not what the LI is after they have finished the game. As an example, if I come in with a 3 run lead and walk the bases loaded, give up 2 runs and shut it down my LI will actually come out higher than if I come in with a 1 run lead and just strike out the side. The LI when the pitcher enters the game is what is most important to me for usage.

LI by itself just gives way too much credit to it being the 9th inning as well imo. Most of this comes down to usage patterns anyway. A manager will go to his closer in the 9th with a 3 run lead but they won't generally waste a setup guy with a 3 run lead in the 8th which in itself is just silly. Managing around the save stat is just awful.

The creativitity I was referring to was simply counting how many setup men were in the top 30. If you go team-by-team, only the Indians used somebody other than their closer in highest leverage situations, based on gmLI. The Cubs were arguably in the same situation with 2 or 3 relievers sharing save opportunities throughout the year, although Marmol did have the job most of the season, and James Russell finished with the highest gmLI. Russell also finished with a better ERA and SIERA than Marmol, just like Pestano who had a better ERA and SIERA than Chris Perez. This is not an endorsement from me for pitching to the save rule, but it shows that closers almost always enter the game in the highest leverage situations of any pitcher on the team over the course of a season. And in the rare case when they don't, the setup man was better, at least based on 2012 data. Jansen is currently 4th on the team in gmLI compared to Brandon League who is 1st. It is almost a certainty that if Jansen and League switched roles, Jansen would be pitching in higher leverage situations. To me, they'd be insanly stupid to keep the bullpen usage the status quo rather than give the closer to job to Kenley Jansen.
Skin Blues
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 3082
(Past Year: 109)
Joined: 11 Apr 2010
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD

Postby Ender » Thu May 09, 2013 12:42 pm

Casilla was higher than Romo.
Clippard was the highest on the Nats.
Cook higher than Balfour

In most cases the setup guys are neck and neck with the closers in that list and the closers have the 9th inning gets a higher LI advantage and again I think the innings part is overstated. If you look at something like WPA/LI it is full of setup guys too. The smartest usage of bullpen guys is to not stick your best RP into a must pitch the 9th anytime the game is within 3 runs role.
Ender
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

CafeholicFantasy Expert
Posts: 7733
Joined: 30 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD

Postby Skin Blues » Thu May 09, 2013 1:40 pm

Ender wrote:Casilla was higher than Romo.
Clippard was the highest on the Nats.
Cook higher than Balfour

You realize all three of those guys were closers last year, right? Casilla had 25 saves, Clippard had 32 saves, and Cook had 14 saves.

Again... this is in no way an endorsement of pitching to the save rule. Using your bullpen ace in the 8th inning in a game that is tied or you're up by 1 makes more sense than using him in the 9th inning of a game that you're up by 3. But the closer is still by far the most high leverage of any relief role, even if it isn't done perfectly.

Of course, all of this is irrelevant if managers don't realize who their best reliever is. Don Mattingly doesn't seem to care that Kenley Jansen is his best relief pitcher (Paco Rodriguez has been pretty damn good too) and that Brandon League is not very good. How bad does League have to be to lose the job? He's only blown one save even though he's been terrible. He'll probably need to actually blow some saves to give a closer change any attention. It's hard to remove a guy like league who is technically doing what you've asked him to do, even if his performance doesn't bode well for the future. The mistake was naming him the closer in the first place.
Skin Blues
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 3082
(Past Year: 109)
Joined: 11 Apr 2010
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD

Postby SpecialFNK » Thu May 09, 2013 4:04 pm

Red Sox transferred RHP Joel Hanrhan from the 15-day disabled list to the 60-day disabled list.
Hanrahan is off to see Dr. James Andrews in Birmighahm, Alabama for a full examination of his strained right forearm. It's possible that he will require surgery.


he just went on the DL May 4th. so he is going to be out for awhile.
Bailey is injury prone yes? so Tazawa could be increasing value even more going forward, if he is the one they would use to close.
SpecialFNK
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy Expert
Posts: 5004
(Past Year: 72)
Joined: 21 Mar 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD

Postby CBMGreatOne » Thu May 09, 2013 5:06 pm

Whoever they use to close in Boston should be very valuable. I still see Bailey taking control of the job when healthy.
CBMGreatOne
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 3166
(Past Year: 89)
Joined: 30 May 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD

Postby khm7x » Thu May 09, 2013 7:03 pm

So....Bell or Tazawa going forward?
khm7x
Little League Legend
Little League Legend


Posts: 22
Joined: 24 Mar 2008
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD

Postby eneric » Thu May 09, 2013 9:25 pm

khm7x wrote:So....Bell or Tazawa going forward?


I would go with Tazawa because I don't trust Bell to hold down the closer role too long
eneric
College Coach
College Coach

User avatar

Posts: 341
(Past Year: 32)
Joined: 3 Jun 2008
Home Cafe: Baseball

PreviousNext

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: unioreimi and 6 guests

cron
Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Get Ready...
The 2015 MLB season starts in 15:43 hours
(and 91 days)

  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact