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2013 CLOSERS THREAD

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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD (PRE-SEASON)

Postby Ender » Thu Feb 28, 2013 12:43 pm

I do expect him to keep the job most likely but I think drafting his backup makes a lot of sense because he is one of those cases where they will cut bait early if he gets off to a really bad start. Same reason I'm targeting Hanrahan's backups since if he comes out and looks like the guy who finished 2012 he won't last through April in Boston.
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD (PRE-SEASON)

Postby Frenchiegangsta9 » Thu Feb 28, 2013 1:24 pm

Ender wrote:I do expect him to keep the job most likely but I think drafting his backup makes a lot of sense because he is one of those cases where they will cut bait early if he gets off to a really bad start. Same reason I'm targeting Hanrahan's backups since if he comes out and looks like the guy who finished 2012 he won't last through April in Boston.


the 2nd guys on Bostons and Pittsburghs official depth charts are Bailey and Melancon, respectively. :-o

Uehara is 3rd on the list for Boston. He pitches really well every year and it would be interesting to see him close out games...
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD (PRE-SEASON)

Postby Ender » Thu Feb 28, 2013 3:54 pm

Yeah it is more drafting a guy just for April and then dropping them if the normal starter looks good. They aren't meant to be long term plays, more speculative. Uehara is a long term play though, he is worth owning even if he never gets the job.
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD (PRE-SEASON)

Postby Frenchiegangsta9 » Thu Feb 28, 2013 4:34 pm

Ender wrote:Yeah it is more drafting a guy just for April and then dropping them if the normal starter looks good. They aren't meant to be long term plays, more speculative. Uehara is a long term play though, he is worth owning even if he never gets the job.


It seems like there will be lots of that type of speculation this year.
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD (PRE-SEASON)

Postby AHF » Thu Feb 28, 2013 6:40 pm

I know we have several knowledgeable Royals fans on here. How secure do you view Greg Holland in KC? He seems to be viewed by a lot of raters as a middle of the pack closer which would imply reasonable security to me but I remember from seasons past that KC has had a lot of talented arms in their bullpen that had closer potential.

Thanks for any thoughts!
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD (PRE-SEASON)

Postby bigh0rt » Thu Feb 28, 2013 7:58 pm

AHF wrote:I know we have several knowledgeable Royals fans on here. How secure do you view Greg Holland in KC? He seems to be viewed by a lot of raters as a middle of the pack closer which would imply reasonable security to me but I remember from seasons past that KC has had a lot of talented arms in their bullpen that had closer potential.

Thanks for any thoughts!

In seasons past there was never any reason to give any of them a look, because Joakim Soria was busy being one of the most reliable closers in baseball. I think Holland has as much security as anyone else who is cemented into the role. If he blows up, he'll eventually be replaced, but I think he's far from walking a tightrope.
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD (PRE-SEASON)

Postby AussieDodger » Fri Mar 01, 2013 1:19 am

AHF wrote:I know we have several knowledgeable Royals fans on here. How secure do you view Greg Holland in KC? He seems to be viewed by a lot of raters as a middle of the pack closer which would imply reasonable security to me but I remember from seasons past that KC has had a lot of talented arms in their bullpen that had closer potential.

Thanks for any thoughts!


I think Greg Holland has the goods to become an elite closer in 2013.

In 2012:
He hurt himself in April because his mechanics were wrong. The Royals tweaked what he was doing a bit.
In May/June he was learning his new delivery/mechanics, so his walk-rate went a bit haywire.
From July onward he was phenomenal, which coincided with him getting the closing gig.

July/August/September: 40.2 IP, 1 HR, 16 BB, 52 Ks.
That walk rate looks a little high, but 4 of those were actually intentional walks.

I would be buying G.Holland wherever I can, while he isn't a "big name".
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD (PRE-SEASON)

Postby Ender » Fri Mar 01, 2013 1:20 am

Holland is a bad start away from losing the job just like a lot of guys. I expect him to keep it but that is one of the best bullpens in baseball and he is really easy to replace if he should struggle early. He definitely has the skills to keep the job though. The big issue with backing him up is that they have 3 or 4 guys who are closer worthy so hard to pick who to take.
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD (PRE-SEASON)

Postby AKhomebrewer » Fri Mar 01, 2013 2:44 am

Element wrote:
Skin Blues wrote:Kenley Jansen had 40 save chances, not 33, and had 7 blown saves (83%). Brandon League had 29 chances and blew 6 of them (79%). If you want to look at shutdowns/meltdowns, Jansen had 26/9 and League had 21/9. We all know Jansen is much better, it's just a matter of how long it takes League to suck. That team has spent enough money and set the expectations so high that he will not have a long leash, especially with such a dominant reliever waiting in the wings. As for Jansen's velocity, he averaged 94+ MPH in six different outings in 2012, which includes each of his final four appearances. Judging by that I'd say he was throwing just fine at the end of the season.


Where do you see that he had 40 save chances? He converted 25 saves and blew 7. I admit my math was off (32 opportunities; not 33).

Ahh ... the save opp/blown save can be a tricky stat. Jansen was setting up Guerra until nearly mid-May. Some of those "save opps" actually came in the eighth inning (or possibly even seventh; I don't have the game-by-game breakdown). In any case, he entered the game with his team holding the lead in the late innings 40 times, and succeeded holding that lead 33 times. Technically, Skin Blues is correct here.
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD (PRE-SEASON)

Postby rookies and cream » Fri Mar 01, 2013 3:40 pm

Chris Perez will not appear in Cactus League games for the next 3-4 weeks after being diagnosed with a strain of the subscapularis muscle in his right shoulder.

The closer will be shut down for the next 7-10 days and obviously will no longer pitch for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic. While he technically could have time to make it back for Opening Day, this almost surely means he'll begin the season on the disabled list. Vinnie Pestano should handle the ninth inning while Perez is out.
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