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2013 CLOSERS THREAD

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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD

Postby Skin Blues » Tue Jun 18, 2013 5:12 pm

SpecialFNK wrote:if any closer is not blowing any/many saves, then why remove that closer from the role? the bottom line is getting saves. in the end that's what matters, winning games, and getting saves.

Because we're interested in what players WILL do, not what they HAVE done. Sometimes there's a correlation between the two, but not always. I don't want to drag this on, there's not much more to explore here.

SpecialFNK wrote:there are many good relievers with great non closing numbers, but then when they get the chance to become a closer they can't get the job done. it's a different environment.

If you have real evidence to support this, please share it. It would be interesting to read an actual study because there very well could be something to it, but I've never seen anything other than anecdotes. Many of the anecdotes are then proven wrong when guys like Betancourt and Madson become closers. Its the classic "something is true until it isn't" situation. There's no real science to it, it's just a narrative used by sports radio and baseball announcers.
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD

Postby SpecialFNK » Tue Jun 18, 2013 6:38 pm

Skin Blues wrote:
SpecialFNK wrote:there are many good relievers with great non closing numbers, but then when they get the chance to become a closer they can't get the job done. it's a different environment.

If you have real evidence to support this, please share it. It would be interesting to read an actual study because there very well could be something to it, but I've never seen anything other than anecdotes. Many of the anecdotes are then proven wrong when guys like Betancourt and Madson become closers. Its the classic "something is true until it isn't" situation. There's no real science to it, it's just a narrative used by sports radio and baseball announcers.


this would take too much time to look up right now for numbers. I've just seen it mentioned before on websites as well as what managers have talked about. there's more pressure in the 9th closing out a game.
just off the top of my head, didn't Mujica struggle as a closer with the Marlins when given the chance?

CM52 wrote:
SpecialFNK wrote:if any closer is not blowing any/many saves, then why remove that closer from the role? the bottom line is getting saves. in the end that's what matters, winning games, and getting saves.
there are many good relievers with great non closing numbers, but then when they get the chance to become a closer they can't get the job done. it's a different environment.


But the fact is that, on top of:

(a) his declining production over the years
(b) his poor peripherals, and
(c) the eye test verifying he's just throwing junk with no movement over the plate and getting hit hard as a result

He blew vital saves for them last year, and he is continuing to blow saves this year. There is no reason for them to continue down this path.


except (c) isn't happening. he has 12.0 LD% on the season. so batters are not driving the ball hard.
in fact, batters are actually driving the ball less in June.
March/April- 14.3 LD%, 42.9 GB%, 42.9 FB%, 0.0 HR/FB
May- 14.8 LD%, 40.7 GB%, 44.4 FB% , 16.7 HR/FB
June- 6.3 LD%, 43.8 GB%, 50.0 FB%, 37.5 HR/FB

that FB% will come down, and I have to imagine that HR/FB will come down whether the FB% comes down or not.

I agree with declining production. from great to good.
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD

Postby SpecialFNK » Tue Jun 18, 2013 7:34 pm

from what I remember Valverde didn't lose his job during the 2012 season. he was bad in the playoffs, no doubt. then he was a free agent, and based on that nobody would sign him.

I wouldn't expect his current LD% rate to continue. the same as I don't expect FB and HR/FB to continue either.
I wouldn't have a terrible problem if they wanted to give him a break, a break from closing. take a step back, regroup, and then get the job back. pitch him in some lesser pressure situations.
he has had a bad stretch for sure. but I would expect him to be able to get back to being good enough.
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD

Postby SpecialFNK » Tue Jun 18, 2013 8:29 pm

for what seems like awhile now the fans and media have been saying Valerde sucks, Valerde sucks, Valerde sucks, Valerde sucks, Valerde sucks.. even though I don't think he has been bad enough to lose his job. so if Valverde has been letting this new pressure get to him, you give him a break. the manager says fine fans/media, Valerde is out. Benoit (or other) is allowed to close until the manager (Leyland) decides Valverde has improve.
from what I remember early in the season he was making good pitches and had good stuff on his pitches. I remember comments about his velocity then. maybe being used less often he can get that "stuff" back. maybe at his age (35) he can't be used so often. that would be up to the manager to limit his usage. maybe using Valverde and Benoit each elss often can make them both really good. if Leyland doesn't want Benoit going on back to back days, maybe the same can be done/said about Valverde.
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD

Postby Skin Blues » Tue Jun 18, 2013 9:12 pm

I don't know where this idea that Benoit is no good on back-to-back days comes from. He's done so 92 times in his career (and 5 times so far this year) and his numbers in those games (2.23 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 88+ IP) are much better than with any other amount of rest. He's also by far Detroit's best reliever. I think Leyland is just stubborn and is creating a problem that doesn't exist.
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD

Postby SpecialFNK » Tue Jun 18, 2013 10:35 pm

Andrew Bailey just blew the save for Boston. that's 5 HR now on the season allowed for Bailey. (same as another closer who has been talked about). Bailey has been terrible lately. blown save tonight with 1 ER. 2 ER in his last appearance on the 15th, plus 2 ER back on the 10th. they must need someone new in Boston. so I have to ask, Uehara or Tazawa??

EDIT: rotoworld.
Red Sox manager John Farrell said Andrew Bailey remains the team's closer for now, "but there's work to do."

Bailey blew his third save of the season Tuesday and has allowed five runs over his last four appearances. He has a little more leash, but his owners would be wise to pick up Junichi Tazawa as insurance.
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD

Postby Skin Blues » Tue Jun 18, 2013 11:27 pm

Yep, Bailey has been bad since he returned and his velocity has noticeably spiked down. A sign that he's still injured. I think Tazawa would get the first shot. Uehara is another "can't go on back to back days" guy. I think it's to prevent injury, but just like Benoit, he's at his best on 0 days rest. In 34 career appearances in such situations (6 this season), he has never allowed an earned run and has a 0.48 WHIP to go with a 12.4 K/9.
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD

Postby Bozo » Tue Jun 18, 2013 11:33 pm

I'd grab Tazawa ahead of Uehara as well. Farrell was ready to go with Tazawa last month when Bailey was hurt and I assume he hasn't changed his opinion.
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD

Postby cardsfan » Wed Jun 19, 2013 2:24 am

Any help with the Seattle pen. Wilhelmsen got hit again tonight and I'm beginning to wonder if something is wrong. Capps isn't the answer. Perez can do it situationally; what's up with Medina? Think he gets a chance?
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD

Postby NZ Eff » Wed Jun 19, 2013 2:37 am

cardsfan wrote:Any help with the Seattle pen. what's up with Medina? Think he gets a chance?


He got a chance tonight and nailed it. His walk rate is as bad as Wilhelmsen's but it looks like he is the guy the Mariners have turned the 9th to. Oliver Perez pitched the 7th with Seattle ahead by 1 so I'm thinking he will only be used when match-ups dictate. Grab Medina if you need saves.
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