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Auction. tips and stategy?

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Re: Auction. tips and stategy?

Postby RotoValue » Sat Feb 16, 2013 6:10 pm

Izenhart wrote:This is exactly why I like auction drafts instead of snake. You get to cherry pick the value based on what you think. Snake drafts are great when deciding who is the best NEXT pick, but auctions are where you separate the sheep from the pack. If you want a team that has the potential to dominate, auctions drafts are the way to go.


In my opinion the only reason to prefer a draft is because it's faster than an auction. An auction is much fairer, especially for sports like basketball where two players are much better than everyone else. It's not quite so bad in MLB, where the dropoff from elite players is not as steep, but even so when you're picking 10th or so you walk into a draft knowing there are several players you have no chance at owning. An auction is fairer: everyone starts with the same salary cap, and so the same theoretical chance at any one player. And because it's a market for price, talent gaps can be reflected by price differences.

Well, there's one other minor difference: an auction is a little more forgiving if you forget about a good player. If you forget about someone during your preparation, you have some time during the bidding to adjust and make up for it, whereas in a draft if you've forgotten someone you'll never pick him. But that's minor. Auctions are overall much better.
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Re: Auction. tips and stategy?

Postby OBPlover » Sat Feb 16, 2013 7:42 pm

RotoValue wrote:
Izenhart wrote:This is exactly why I like auction drafts instead of snake. You get to cherry pick the value based on what you think. Snake drafts are great when deciding who is the best NEXT pick, but auctions are where you separate the sheep from the pack. If you want a team that has the potential to dominate, auctions drafts are the way to go.



Well, there's one other minor difference: an auction is a little more forgiving if you forget about a good player. If you forget about someone during your preparation, you have some time during the bidding to adjust and make up for it, whereas in a draft if you've forgotten someone you'll never pick him. But that's minor. Auctions are overall much better.



HMM..I respectfully disagree Roto.

Auctions only give the Illusion of control. In many ways, you have less control than even a draft. Suppose you really like Miguel Cabrera and you decided you want to own him. Of course a popular superstar is going to command a premium and you may have to get into a bidding war. While *True* you can get into a bidding war and buy Miggy for $50, $60 or as crazy as it seems $70 (which I have seen on occassion), doing so would totally handicap your ability to compete from that point onwards.

And speaking towards your earlier point about nominating good sleeper picks. Once more, auction format penalizes you. If you have that super sneaky pick that you think everyone forgot about, you can save him for the later rounds. In auctions, so long as one reasonably smart player has some money left over than you aren't getting your sleeper pick all THAT cheap.
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Re: Auction. tips and stategy?

Postby SpecialFNK » Sun Feb 17, 2013 1:12 am

I can see a disadvantage in auction for sleepers. in a snake draft you can target a sleeper (one or more) and based on ADP draft him before his ADP so you know you can get him before anyone else who might have also been targeting him. in an auction you can't do that. multiple people have interest in the same "sleeper", creates bidding war, now that sleeper with potential for more is bought for more than what he is really worth.
since I've never done an auction I have no idea if this is good or not. but maybe one should be targeting the safe consistent players where you know what to expect. they might not be the "sexy" picks capable of breaking out, but they're not high risk.
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Re: Auction. tips and stategy?

Postby BigLebowski » Sun Feb 17, 2013 2:08 am

MashinSpuds wrote:
stevethumb wrote:I play in a 12 NL only auction league and all the years albert pujols dominated, the roto team who bought him at auction never won our league title

Well, this may be due to bad drafting, bad roster management, bad trades, etc. I suppose the message is that one player won't win a league, so be smart about the rest of your team.


Stevethumb..you know I'm an NL only guy as well. I've won my money league 7 times in the last 16 years and 3 with Pujols on my roster, as the highest salary player in the league. Every auction has its own quirks and you can't have hard an fast rules to league titles. It just comes down to you being a bit smarter than your league-mates. Or luckier as well.

If you have 3 teams going for 2nd tier guys, they can end up spending the same amount on the 2nd tier guys as you did on the first. Or missing out on the top 2 tiers completely and ending up with scrubs and money left over at the end of the draft and spending $16 on Wiki Gonzalez to fill out their roster.

The only way to win in auction leagues is to get very lucky or play for a long time. Nothing can beat experience, other than luck that is. ;-D
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Re: Auction. tips and stategy?

Postby RotoValue » Sun Feb 17, 2013 9:16 am

OBPlover wrote:HMM..I respectfully disagree Roto.

Auctions only give the Illusion of control. ...

And speaking towards your earlier point about nominating good sleeper picks. Once more, auction format penalizes you. If you have that super sneaky pick that you think everyone forgot about, you can save him for the later rounds. In auctions, so long as one reasonably smart player has some money left over than you aren't getting your sleeper pick all THAT cheap.


I appreciate the respect, and reciprocate. But I still disagree. To me it's about fairness. You're right that it just takes two crazy owners who really want Cabrera to drive his price to the moon, and sane bidders will drop out before then. But whoever wins him then has much less money to spend elsewhere, and is handicapped from it, so there is that compensating benefit to owners who don't win him.

And hey, maybe this year *you* want to be that crazy owner who gets Cabrera. In a draft format, you're out of luck unless you get an early pick. In an auction, well, you're in it. Not to mention that the simple act of auctions for top players is more exciting and fun than simply seeing somebody take the obvious pick. Okay, watching someone waste an early pick by reaching is fun, too, but not nearly as much (to me at least) as a hotly contested auction.

The point on sleeper picks is noted, but at least in my experience it's rare that there are genuine sleepers that only one owner knows about. Maybe I'm in relatively strong leagues (we've been in the same basic group for over two decades now), but we're usually joking about how there are no sleepers. As you note, it just takes one person with some money late to cause a little bidding war. But then maybe that guy steals your sleeper 2 picks before your turn in a draft anyhow.

Taking a sleeper too early is similar to overbidding, so in the rare case that you really do have a sleeper that nobody else knows about, you're better off in an auction, as you buy the player for a minimum price. In a draft, you're worried someone else may take him, in which case you probably take him earlier than you need to, giving up a little value in the process.

Both formats have their own strategies, but I find an auction allows a finer grained valuation of players because the prices vary, whereas a draft is taking the best from an ordered list, or deciding when to deviate based on team need. In my experience, drafts are faster, and that's their main advantage. Auctions are more fun, and much fairer.
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Re: Auction. tips and stategy?

Postby SpecialFNK » Wed Feb 20, 2013 10:52 pm

is there a website out there that has good dollar values for players?
I was looking at razzball.com but it looks confused to me.
http://razzball.com/playerrater-preseason-yahoomlb12
you get to certain players, and they have - value. I don't think I understand. how can a player have - number? how do I know what to bid?
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Re: Auction. tips and stategy?

Postby Izenhart » Thu Feb 21, 2013 2:19 am

SpecialFNK wrote:is there a website out there that has good dollar values for players?
I was looking at razzball.com but it looks confused to me.
http://razzball.com/playerrater-preseason-yahoomlb12
you get to certain players, and they have - value. I don't think I understand. how can a player have - number? how do I know what to bid?


A negative number makes sense if you think about a player like Adam Dunn. He may give you positive value in runs, HR and rbi but his overall value wont go much higher than a few bucks because he gives you heavily negative value in BA. Other players who produce few runs and rbi (think of a soft #8 hitter in a NL lineup) give negative value for many categories and thus his overall value becomes a negative number.
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Re: Auction. tips and stategy?

Postby GiantsFan14 » Thu Feb 21, 2013 2:31 am

SpecialFNK wrote:is there a website out there that has good dollar values for players?
I was looking at razzball.com but it looks confused to me.
http://razzball.com/playerrater-preseason-yahoomlb12
you get to certain players, and they have - value. I don't think I understand. how can a player have - number? how do I know what to bid?


Which players have negative value will depend on how deep your league is. If you're in a 12 team league that starts 14 hitters then 168 hitters will have positive value. Replacement guys (the best free agents) will be worth close to $0 and guys worse than that will have negative value. Theoretically you shouldn't be bidding on guys with negative value.
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Re: Auction. tips and stategy?

Postby OBPlover » Thu Feb 21, 2013 2:50 am

GiantsFan14 wrote:
SpecialFNK wrote:is there a website out there that has good dollar values for players?
I was looking at razzball.com but it looks confused to me.
http://razzball.com/playerrater-preseason-yahoomlb12
you get to certain players, and they have - value. I don't think I understand. how can a player have - number? how do I know what to bid?


If you scroll down from that huge list, there are some explanations on how the dollar values are calculated.
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Re: Auction. tips and stategy?

Postby SpecialFNK » Thu Feb 21, 2013 9:18 am

I found this one from ESPN.
http://g.espncdn.com/s/flbdraftkit/13/M ... _mixed_xxx

the link from razzball has David Ortiz at 0.9 and Adam LaRoche at 0.5. the ESPN link above has Ortiz at 9 and LaRoche at 6.
even to nominate a player you start with a $1 bid.

rotochamp also has what look like better dollar values.
http://rotochamp.com/Baseball/PlayerRankings.aspx
(rotochamp also has projections under a players name from Composite, RotoChamp, Steamer-Razzball, FanGraphs Fans, ZIPS, CAIRO)
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