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Auction. tips and stategy?

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Re: Auction. tips and stategy?

Postby TheRock » Fri Feb 15, 2013 3:02 am

Quackman wrote:surprising to read some of the opinions here. saving your money is so oh um. Not a great strat. You cant find trout/braun/miggy talent 2 rounds later. Once they are gone they are gone forever. When i see people save their money i think omg let me play with this guy every league.


Believe it or not it is possible to win your league without Trout, Braun or Miggy. If you've ever calculated player values before, you know it is possible to quantify what a player contributes and assign a dollar value to that. If Trout has a great year and produces $45 worth of stats he's great to have on your team. But if you paid $55 to get him, you're probably losing to someone who bought a whole roster full of $20 players for $10 each.
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Re: Auction. tips and stategy?

Postby OBPlover » Fri Feb 15, 2013 4:07 am

Quackman wrote:surprising to read some of the opinions here. saving your money is so oh um. Not a great strat. You cant find trout/braun/miggy talent 2 rounds later. Once they are gone they are gone forever. When i see people save their money i think omg let me play with this guy every league.


yeah, once they are gone, they are gone for good....but so is your money.

Hindsight is easy. But I've read in last year's Fantasy baseball guide (presented by the late-great "Baseball weekly") that fewer than 50% of top 15 players retain their status from year to year. What if you spend a lot of money on Braun and he goes down for 50 games with a fresh PED suspension or injury? What if Miggy gets injured? What if pitchers finally solve Mike Trout?

If you spend a ton of money on just a few elite players and one of them gets injured, you are in DEEP trouble especially in a "deep league" where warm bodies are essential and all that spending meant you needed to take a few fringe players.
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Re: Auction. tips and stategy?

Postby stevethumb » Fri Feb 15, 2013 8:45 am

TheRock wrote:
Quackman wrote:surprising to read some of the opinions here. saving your money is so oh um. Not a great strat. You cant find trout/braun/miggy talent 2 rounds later. Once they are gone they are gone forever. When i see people save their money i think omg let me play with this guy every league.


Believe it or not it is possible to win your league without Trout, Braun or Miggy. If you've ever calculated player values before, you know it is possible to quantify what a player contributes and assign a dollar value to that. If Trout has a great year and produces $45 worth of stats he's great to have on your team. But if you paid $55 to get him, you're probably losing to someone who bought a whole roster full of $20 players for $10 each.


I play in a 12 NL only auction league and all the years albert pujols dominated, the roto team who bought him at auction never won our league title
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Re: Auction. tips and stategy?

Postby Niffoc4 » Fri Feb 15, 2013 11:00 am

IMO it really depends on the depth of the league. In a 10 or 12 team mixed league, I think stars and scrubs makes more sense because replacements that can be found on the waiver wire are actually pretty good, so you can fill holes relatively easily.

OTOH, in "Only" leagues there are practically no hitters on the waiver wire. So if you spent big on Troy Tulowitzki, you might have been stuck choosing between Marwin Gonzalez and Alexi Amarista to replace him.
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Re: Auction. tips and stategy?

Postby Element » Fri Feb 15, 2013 3:19 pm

TheRock wrote:
Quackman wrote:surprising to read some of the opinions here. saving your money is so oh um. Not a great strat. You cant find trout/braun/miggy talent 2 rounds later. Once they are gone they are gone forever. When i see people save their money i think omg let me play with this guy every league.


Believe it or not it is possible to win your league without Trout, Braun or Miggy. If you've ever calculated player values before, you know it is possible to quantify what a player contributes and assign a dollar value to that. If Trout has a great year and produces $45 worth of stats he's great to have on your team. But if you paid $55 to get him, you're probably losing to someone who bought a whole roster full of $20 players for $10 each.


Yup. Rule of thumb is to walk away from your $260 auction with $300+ worth of value. The studs and scrubs theory works in shallow(er) leagues, but once the rosters get deeper or the level of competition increases you will want flexibility in the middle of your draft. 9 times out of 10 that is where you will find your value.
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Re: Auction. tips and stategy?

Postby Ender » Fri Feb 15, 2013 8:13 pm

Quackman wrote:surprising to read some of the opinions here. saving your money is so oh um. Not a great strat. You cant find trout/braun/miggy talent 2 rounds later. Once they are gone they are gone forever. When i see people save their money i think omg let me play with this guy every league.


These guys are pure downside players at the prices they usually go. You pay for more than their normal production due to inflation and they really don't have any room at all for profit. Your best bet is to load up on 2nd tier players and spread the risk through your entire lineup. You don't want to walk out of the draft with nobody over $20 but you also don't want to be the guy with $100 left after 3 players and then one of those gets hurt and you are done.
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Re: Auction. tips and stategy?

Postby jeffmerk » Sat Feb 16, 2013 11:58 am

xbakkesasx wrote:How would you say a keeper league would change the auction values?

I have done auction drafts before, but never for a keeper league. It is a 12 team AL only league with 15 keepers. I have a feeling that people will overpay big time for young talent so I feel like avoiding overpaying for players would be the best approach. However, I am worried that because it is an AL only league I will be left with tons of money and not enough players worth keeping.

Does anyone know a good place to find auction values for a keeper league? All the values I have found so far are for standard redraft leagues.


Thanks for the help!

If your leaguemates insist on overpaying for possible future potential, you should grab boring reliable veterans at reasonable prices and play for the present. There should still be youngsters left at the end of the auction that will likely increase in value down the line.
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Re: Auction. tips and stategy?

Postby MashinSpuds » Sat Feb 16, 2013 4:24 pm

stevethumb wrote:I play in a 12 NL only auction league and all the years albert pujols dominated, the roto team who bought him at auction never won our league title

Well, this may be due to bad drafting, bad roster management, bad trades, etc. I suppose the message is that one player won't win a league, so be smart about the rest of your team.
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Re: Auction. tips and stategy?

Postby RotoValue » Sat Feb 16, 2013 4:34 pm

TheRock wrote:Above all, you must have reasonably accurate dollar values for your league configuration. Don't just rely on your gut to tell you to bid $22 on Jimmy Rollins when in reality he's only worth $6. Go visit lastplayerpicked. Use these as a baseline only. You can bid a little higher to get the players you want, but keep in mind that you don't win your league by buying players at or above their projected value. You win by buying players at less than what you project them to be worth.
...


This is very true. How many teams you have, the roster sizes, what positions you need to fill, and your categories all affect what prices should be. Lastplayerpicked looks like a nice site for getting values.

And note that even a good pricing model is still limited by the stats you feed into it. I did a post (http://blog.rotovalue.com/revised-projected-rotovalue-comparison/) comparing a few projection systems in my own pricing model for different league configurations. Steamer - http://steamerprojections.com - did quite well last year overall compared to some of the other freely available stat projection systems.

Good luck!
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Re: Auction. tips and stategy?

Postby Izenhart » Sat Feb 16, 2013 5:40 pm

RotoValue wrote:
TheRock wrote:Above all, you must have reasonably accurate dollar values for your league configuration. Don't just rely on your gut to tell you to bid $22 on Jimmy Rollins when in reality he's only worth $6. Go visit lastplayerpicked. Use these as a baseline only. You can bid a little higher to get the players you want, but keep in mind that you don't win your league by buying players at or above their projected value. You win by buying players at less than what you project them to be worth.
...


This is very true. How many teams you have, the roster sizes, what positions you need to fill, and your categories all affect what prices should be. Lastplayerpicked looks like a nice site for getting values.

And note that even a good pricing model is still limited by the stats you feed into it. I did a post (http://blog.rotovalue.com/revised-projected-rotovalue-comparison/) comparing a few projection systems in my own pricing model for different league configurations. Steamer - http://steamerprojections.com - did quite well last year overall compared to some of the other freely available stat projection systems.

Good luck!


This is exactly why I like auction drafts instead of snake. You get to cherry pick the value based on what you think. Snake drafts are great when deciding who is the best NEXT pick, but auctions are where you separate the sheep from the pack. If you want a team that has the potential to dominate, auctions drafts are the way to go.
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