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General fantasy thoughts

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Re: General fantasy thoughts

Postby Ender » Fri Feb 22, 2013 7:06 pm

but Kemp/Tullo/Longo... Ellsbury a previous year


3 of those 4 are bad early picks though~ Kemp makes sense for sure though. Pitchers just control less of their game than hitters do and it is much easier to work around holes in pitching than hitting since you can play matchups etc. SP really only give you 1 stat in Roto in the 1st place and that is W. You can match the K, ERA and WHIP with good MR. On top of all of that you need roughly 50% more hitters than pitchers which again drives up the price on the hitters.
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Re: General fantasy thoughts

Postby jfg » Fri Feb 22, 2013 7:23 pm

Loving the 7 point posts, lots to talk about in them.

I have always taken the philosophy of drafting my pitching in the middle rounds, and every year I end up in the middle of the pack or worse in pitching. The teams that win (in my leagues at least) almost always have 2 aces on their staff and normally they are aces you could forecast. Yes, pitching is risky, but you have to get very lucky with those middle of the pack pitchers and hope that a couple of them don't choke. That's what I've always been burned by. 4-5 of the pitchers pan out ok, nothing great but enough to get the points I was looking for and then a couple of them just completely bomb and they kill my entire season with the month or two I give them before pulling the plug. I would argue that drafting pitching early isn't a sucker play, but rather a conservative play. You probably aren't going to blow the league out of the water, but you have a greater chance of staying in the hunt throughout the season.
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Re: General fantasy thoughts

Postby Ender » Fri Feb 22, 2013 7:58 pm

I like to draft one of the tail end of the stud guys like a Cole Hamels. I think Hamels in the 4th round is a much better investment than Verlander in the 1st. Both are very safe, both put up extremely good numbers and it won't shock me at all if Hamels earns as much as Verlander. I'm not a big fan of skipping pitching completely until the mid rounds, I just don't like drafting it in the 1st or early 2nd.

An example from the Pond Scum league I have Hamels and Gallardo after 7 rounds. If you just sit Gallardo against the Cardinals he is an ace level pitcher and he has upside. Hamels can easily match up with any other pitcher any given year. Pitching to me is about depth, you lose it more by having bad pitchers than win it by having good ones.
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Re: General fantasy thoughts

Postby Fenris-77 » Fri Feb 22, 2013 8:13 pm

Yeah, I just can't get behind drafting pitchers early. It's really tough to make up the gap in the counting stats on the hitting side, while it's not nearly as tough to be clever closing the gap on the pitching side. I think the main point of difference is the fact that pitching counts two ratios and a non-starter category. That leaves a lot of different draft strategies open that just can't be matched on the hitting side.

To keep up the Pond Scum byline, I have a lot of really good hitting and still have Greinke and Latos after 8 picks. That leaves a lot of wiggle room on the pitching side and I only spent a 4th and 7th round pick to get it done. I don't think I'd trade my hitting to upgrade to Kershaw and whomever.

As far as positional scarcity goes I don't exactly agree that it's about identifying the point at which all the other options are terrible. I think it's more about identifying the plateaus in other, deeper, positions. If the corner guys (or OFs, or whatever) are leveling off and there will be decent options available for a couple of rounds, but there are only a couple of reliable 2B left, I'll fill 2B and leave the corner for next round. My goal is to not punt any positions except catcher unless absolutely necessary. That might sound like I'm splitting hairs, but the difference is important.
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Re: General fantasy thoughts

Postby OBPlover » Fri Feb 22, 2013 8:14 pm

I like the post as well.

However, most of what you're saying is..as always, addressed by a firm "It depends".

There's no hard set of rules for any complex game or any contest combining skill and luck.

For example: "Positional Scarcity". It wasn't too long ago that it was kind of a given that a team's SS and 2b and maybe catcher were there primarily for defense. Over time and the increased used of Sabremetrics most GMs have come to the realization that it's pretty hard for a Shortstop's defense to every justify his playing time if comined with say a .600 OPS. On the other hand, in recent years, there seems to be more lackluster 1B and OF. Not too long ago, there always seemed to a dozen or so bankable 1B. Now so many of them come with risk of either a) declining with age (Ryan Howard) b) inconsistency (Eric Hosmer). Either that or they just can't flat out produce in any fantasy category (James Loney). On the other hand, over the past few years, there are a large number of good (but not great) SS and 2B that can be acquired cheaply. This could change rather quickly though.

Whether it means taking a player who is positionally scarce or a SP..once again you just have to "go with what they give you". If you are in a draft and saddled with the n# 12 pick and all the best hitters are gone...you might as well go with 2 Elite SP and dominate there and then hope for the best when taking offense in the middle rounds.

No hard set of rules. In my big office auction draft last year, my goal was to fill up the weak positions. I paid dearly for Longo and Tulo. But it didn't put me off the idea that what I did was right. I got lucky and picked up some superstars (Headley, Medlen) and luckily won the pool. But if Longo and Tulo actually produced? It wouldn't have been close.

Any strategy can win. Be flexible and "go with what they give you".
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Re: General fantasy thoughts

Postby jfg » Fri Feb 22, 2013 8:21 pm

Ok, the normal "Don't draft pitchers early" line of thinking is wait until the first couple tiers are gone, normally around the 6th round. Load up on bats while others are taking pitching in those first 5 rounds and get your middle of the road guys later. The LIMA plan for example. Drafting a pitcher in the 1st or 2nd? Yeah I agree, that's not a great move, but I've seen it work.
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Re: General fantasy thoughts

Postby Ender » Fri Feb 22, 2013 9:29 pm

Every draft is different but what I usually see happen is everyone waits on pitching and you are left with stud pitchers and hitters that could potential be a stud but for some big flaw in their game to choose from and at that point I take my stud.

I agree with the other views given on positional scarcity. I don't see it as a spot you pick and say that is where the mark for scarcity is. I see it as a more fluid thing where at a certain point you are much less happy with the options. To use SS this year as an example, I don't want the top 3 SS even a tiny bit. The middle tier guys I really like though (except for Andrus) and then you get to the old mediocre vet tier of guys like Jeter who I'm not interested at all in and then another tier of upside unproven guys. So if I'm sitting in the rd 3-6 range and I see one of those middle tier guys at a good spot I tend to take them because I know there is a big gap before SS that I'm happy with and that I'm likely going to go with a pure upside guy if I don't take a SS in that range. I'd rather have that upside guy as my MI if I can arrange it.

What scarcity is not about is just picking the 18th SS on the board and saying whatever his value is somehow determines the value of all other SS. That is a flawed view on the subject imo.
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Re: General fantasy thoughts

Postby OBPlover » Fri Feb 22, 2013 11:22 pm

Ender wrote:To use SS this year as an example, I don't want the top 3 SS even a tiny bit.


Oh I beg to differ..I think you want them. What would probably be more accurate to say is "I don't want them for the cost needed to get them". That's true. Why take a Jose Reyes or a Starlin Castro in the first 3 rounds when you can probably wait a few more rounds and get an Eric Aybar type who will probably put up decent BA/SB numbers?

That being said, you are posting generic Fantasy rules applicable to this season but would not be as useful in times past and may not be as useful in the future. Look at the late 1990's/early 2000's for example. You had a few really amazing fantasy shortstops like A-Rod and Nomar and then there was generally a big stink off.
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Re: General fantasy thoughts

Postby ggs » Fri Feb 22, 2013 11:44 pm

OBPlover wrote:That being said, you are posting generic Fantasy rules applicable to this season but would not be as useful in times past and may not be as useful in the future. Look at the late 1990's/early 2000's for example. You had a few really amazing fantasy shortstops like A-Rod and Nomar and then there was generally a big stink off.


That's why it's absolutely important to have a flexible strategy heading into a draft and be prepared to take what it gives you. My number one rule in drafts is don't pass up value - doesn't matter if you had no intention of drafting a pitcher in the 3rd round, if they are available there I don't leave value on the board. Grab the guy and adapt your strategy.
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Re: General fantasy thoughts

Postby Ender » Sat Feb 23, 2013 12:22 am

Oh I beg to differ..I think you want them. What would probably be more accurate to say is "I don't want them for the cost needed to get them". That's true. Why take a Jose Reyes or a Starlin Castro in the first 3 rounds when you can probably wait a few more rounds and get an Eric Aybar type who will probably put up decent BA/SB numbers?


I actually like Castro where he is being drafted. I don't want Tulo, Reyes or Hanley in the 1st 2 rounds so I know I won't get them because they are drafted there in every draft. Castro is exactly the type of player I like to target though. Has put up really good numbers and is still young enough to see a big jump in production. I won't draft a SS in round 1 or 2. Cabrera, Castro, Zobrist, Rollins and to a much lesser extent Desmond are the types I will target where they are going. Andrus is the guy I won't touch in that group. After that guys like Aybar are the ones I avoid. You can get Aybar's skillset in the later rounds very easily, no reason to go after someone like him. Aybar has next to no value unless he sticks hitting #2 in that order.
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