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Draft Discussion

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Re: Draft Discussion

Postby Ender » Wed Mar 13, 2013 2:31 pm

I came to that same basic conclusion a few years ago. When I do my projections I do them in wide bands instead of detailed numbers. I only project by 25 AB increments and I mostly round off my numbers. I never project a guy for 92 R, it is 90 or 95 etc. Then I build my tiers and I use them as actual tiers and not a bunch of players in order. If I need AVG I'll gladly grab someone low in the list of the tier instead of the high guy etc. People obsess over 'value' and sleepers etc but the actual margin of value on players is way too wide to worry about that stuff. The difference between the 80th player in your ratings and the 100th player is one good game.
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Re: Draft Discussion

Postby Mookie4ever » Wed Mar 13, 2013 2:56 pm

I stunned that there isn't a consensus that my team is far and away the best in the league.
Projections be damned, I've got a great team. B-)
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Re: Draft Discussion

Postby Pogotheostrich » Wed Mar 13, 2013 3:10 pm

Mookie4ever wrote:I stunned that there isn't a consensus that my team is far and away the best in the league.
Projections be damned, I've got a great team. B-)


I can't really get my head around your team. The first 3 picks were like they were made by a different owner. Trout, Harper and Strasburg going so young, then it is like a who's who of guys I try to avoid. Let's call these normal Mookie picks. I really don't like Weaver and would much rather gamble on an ace that can throw 90 mph. I kind of like Lawrie and hope A. Hill has a good year cause I have him in my NL only league but he scares the crap out of me. Then you completely derail for me, travel back in time 5 years and pick Jeter and Howard. I didn't like another pick until Harvey in round 15 and Pierre in the 17th. It isn't my kind of team so chances are you stomp me in the standing but it is far and away the weirdest team in the league. :-D
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Re: Draft Discussion

Postby GardnerRunsRampant » Wed Mar 13, 2013 3:14 pm

I use the projections mainly to gauge how my overall team is doing in each category, but something I place a large amount of importance to is team/circumstance factors (batting/rotation order, playing time, quality of lineup/defenders, etc.). While baseball is a sport where individual talent is critical, the situation a player finds himself in can influence his season line dramatically. I believe stats and projections hold value and won't dismiss them as meaningless, but certainly you also have to use the eye test/research to fully evaluate a player. Even then, people evolve for better and worse and good/bad luck happens. That's what makes it a game and fun.

@Mookie - I've got you pegged for a 6th place finish, although I've got your player's value overall pegged for 3rd, so perhaps trades are in your future.
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Re: Draft Discussion

Postby Mookie4ever » Thu Mar 14, 2013 10:17 am

I have not done projections but spending a good 90 seconds going through the rosters, here is how I rank the teams.

1 - Mookie - all around excellence
3 - Gardner - not bad, not bad
4 - rj - a lot of my favourite players on this team but I can't rank a team with Marmol higher than this
4- jfg - some good value picks. can't really fault much beyond Walker and the catchers
5- Chris8 - Morrow 2013 AL Cy young. a steal in the 9th
5 - DasHizz - Michael Saunders is a good Canadian boy
6 - jackiehayes - if he picks up some cheap saves could be a contender
7 - Ender - a lot of relievers on this team. Don't know where the wins, Ks or sb are going to come from
8 - Mashin spuds - a lot of guys need bounce back years: Halladay, Werth, Hanley etc
9 - Pogo - wasted his early picks. Worst picks in the first 3 rounds, just horrific
10 - Cubsfan - meh. I like Altuve
11 - ayebatter - holy lima time
12 - lane - awesome catchers!
16 - fenris - ....maybe they can play basketball?
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Re: Draft Discussion

Postby Ender » Thu Mar 14, 2013 10:25 am

Ender - a lot of relievers on this team. Don't know where the wins, Ks or sb are going to come from


Yeah I plan on picking up SB during the season at some point. Hart will be replaced with a SB guy, when Quentin gets hurt he'll be replaced with SB and if Roberts goes down or isn't productive he'll be replaced with a SB guy. SB are easy to get in season. As for starters, that won't be a problem during the season. Once someone wins the Tor job and looks healthy that last slot will be a starter and if all 3 closers keep their jobs I can always trade one. If one of them (I'm looking at you League) gets replaced I'll just put in another starter. No reason to be starter heavy to start the season.
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Re: Draft Discussion

Postby Pogotheostrich » Thu Mar 14, 2013 10:28 am

Mookie4ever wrote:9 - Pogo - wasted his early picks. Worst picks in the first 3 rounds, just horrific

Cano, Wright and Holliday. I'd make the same picks today. B-)
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Re: Draft Discussion

Postby Fenris-77 » Thu Mar 14, 2013 10:32 am

Mookie4ever wrote:1 - Mookie - all around excellence
...
16 - fenris - ....maybe they can play basketball?

ZING! :-D I don't know about your overall roster, but I'm loving Trout and Harper on the same team, that's going to be fun. ;-D
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Re: Draft Discussion

Postby Mookie4ever » Thu Mar 14, 2013 10:34 am

Ender wrote:
Ender - a lot of relievers on this team. Don't know where the wins, Ks or sb are going to come from


Yeah I plan on picking up SB during the season at some point. Hart will be replaced with a SB guy, when Quentin gets hurt he'll be replaced with SB and if Roberts goes down or isn't productive he'll be replaced with a SB guy. SB are easy to get in season. As for starters, that won't be a problem during the season. Once someone wins the Tor job and looks healthy that last slot will be a starter and if all 3 closers keep their jobs I can always trade one. If one of them (I'm looking at you League) gets replaced I'll just put in another starter. No reason to be starter heavy to start the season.


Those "sb guy"s will likely hurt you in the power cats.
Are you talking about the last starting spot in Tor? That's Romero and you don't want him on your team. You would think that Dickey, Buhrle and JJ coming over would lessen the pressure on him but if anything it has increased since Happ is complaining about starting the year in Buffalo and Rickey still can't find the strike zone.
Jannsen is starting the year on the DL and Santos is starting off with the job. The real dark horse is Delabar. His stuff is filthy and of the 3 of them I would most want him on my team but this is one closing situation that I don't want any part of. Janssen did the job last year, Santos has the big contract to do the job and Delabar is the best. Might be a committee.
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Re: Draft Discussion

Postby Ender » Thu Mar 14, 2013 10:46 am

No I meant the closer role. Janssen is supposed to be back by opening day. Once one of them clearly has the job I can drop the other. Early starters are erratic anyway so I'm not going to lose sleep over not having a 6th starter for the first couple of weeks.

As for SB sure it will hurt power but so did Pierre or Cabrera etc and it won't hurt power if someone like say Brandon Hicks comes up and I get him etc. Almost all young players come with SB, even the CI types. If Roberts does stay healthy I have 125 SB or so plus whatever I scrape together. If I'm going to be behind on any offensive stat going into the season I want it to be SB every time, much easier to pick up SB than anything else. I have 11 players I project at 20+ HR on my team so I can take a power hit if need be for a little while.

Your assessment wasn't wrong though, it is just my team is built like that partially by design. I mean I could also say my 2nd C is a mess but again that is by design, there are going to be 5 or 6 good C that aren't on rosters right now and they will either find their way on my team or the guys who get dropped for them will, so it is one of those things that aren't as weak as they look. I went out of my way to pick certain slots last because they are easier to fix mid season.
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