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Draft Discussion

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Re: Draft Discussion

Postby chris8 » Wed Mar 13, 2013 9:31 am

League is activated! Best of luck everyone ;-D
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Re: Draft Discussion

Postby Pogotheostrich » Wed Mar 13, 2013 9:50 am

Here's what I got using rotochamps composite projections.

HR - 262
R - 1039
RBI - 1031
SB - 156
BA -.273

IP - 1246
W - 78
SV - 75
K - 1226
ERA - 3.73
WHIP - 1.27

Basically I looked at last year's league and some yahoo totals from razzball and set some marks I want to hit in each category. I drafted off my rankings so I don't like using my own projections for this. I just looking to see if I'm lacking in any category.
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Re: Draft Discussion

Postby Ender » Wed Mar 13, 2013 10:11 am

262 looks to be the low end for HR would be my only issue with those numbers. That could be fine though if a few of those guys were projected low on playing time.
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Re: Draft Discussion

Postby rjforlife » Wed Mar 13, 2013 10:27 am

Ender wrote:262 looks to be the low end for HR would be my only issue with those numbers. That could be fine though if a few of those guys were projected low on playing time.



Those projections are terrible, they are quite low for everything, and it makes no sense. A small example would be IP projections.


Kershaw the last 3 seasons- 2010- 204, 2011- 233, 2012- 227. Why would they project only 209 this year?

Verlander the last 3 seasons- 2010- 224, 2011- 251, 2012- 238. Why would they project only 223 this year?

Felix Hernandez the last 3 seasons- 2010- 249, 2011- 233, 2012- 232. Why would they project only 220 this year?

Point being, I would use a different projections site.
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Re: Draft Discussion

Postby Pogotheostrich » Wed Mar 13, 2013 10:34 am

262 isn't going to come close to winning HR but I think it will put me in the upper half. And of course I like my HR totals more than the composite projections.
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Re: Draft Discussion

Postby Ender » Wed Mar 13, 2013 10:51 am

rjforlife wrote:
Ender wrote:262 looks to be the low end for HR would be my only issue with those numbers. That could be fine though if a few of those guys were projected low on playing time.



Those projections are terrible, they are quite low for everything, and it makes no sense. A small example would be IP projections.


Kershaw the last 3 seasons- 2010- 204, 2011- 233, 2012- 227. Why would they project only 209 this year?

Verlander the last 3 seasons- 2010- 224, 2011- 251, 2012- 238. Why would they project only 223 this year?

Felix Hernandez the last 3 seasons- 2010- 249, 2011- 233, 2012- 232. Why would they project only 220 this year?

Point being, I would use a different projections site.


Regression is more likely than repeating those innings totals. Nothing wrong at all with those numbers.
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Re: Draft Discussion

Postby rjforlife » Wed Mar 13, 2013 11:11 am

Every single pitcher that pitched a full year last season is likely to pitch 10-20 less IP this season? That seems outlandish to me.


Verlander will lead the league with just 17 wins? And Kershaw will be alone in second with 16? The league leader in K's will only have 218?


I can understand being conservative, but these projections just don't add up.
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Re: Draft Discussion

Postby Pogotheostrich » Wed Mar 13, 2013 11:18 am

rjforlife wrote:Every single pitcher that pitched a full year last season is likely to pitch 10-20 less IP this season? That seems outlandish to me.


Verlander will lead the league with just 17 wins? And Kershaw will be alone in second with 16? The league leader in K's will only have 218?


I can understand being conservative, but these projections just don't add up.


I don't care if they are being conservative as long as it is consistant across the board. People focus to much on the actual numbers for projections. I just want to use them for comparisions between players
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Re: Draft Discussion

Postby Ender » Wed Mar 13, 2013 11:26 am

rjforlife wrote:Every single pitcher that pitched a full year last season is likely to pitch 10-20 less IP this season? That seems outlandish to me.


Verlander will lead the league with just 17 wins? And Kershaw will be alone in second with 16? The league leader in K's will only have 218?


I can understand being conservative, but these projections just don't add up.


They are projections, they aren't predictions. Some pitcher will win more than 17 but no pitcher should be projected to do it. Verlander might win 22, he might win 16, the projection has to be the middle ground. No pitcher in baseball has had back to back 20 win seasons since 2004/2005 it just doesn't happen very often. Very few pitchers post 220+ IP for more than 3 or 4 years in a row. Just look at CC last year breaking up his string of 220+ IP with a 200 IP year. Projections are usually the average of a range of likely outcomes. Verlander is as likely to miss a couple starts as he is to pitch 250 innings again.

The key here is you don't want to mix projections with predictions, as long as you use one or the other your dollar values will come out right. But if you are saying Verlander is just going to repeat last year you are making a prediction because no good projection is going to say that. It is much more likely he takes a step back than repeating last year.
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Re: Draft Discussion

Postby rjforlife » Wed Mar 13, 2013 11:36 am

Ender wrote:Some pitcher will win more than 17 but no pitcher should be projected to do it. Verlander might win 22, he might win 16, the projection has to be the middle ground.



ESPN projects Verlander to win 20, CBS 19, MLB.com 20, Razzball 20.


Are they all foolish for projecting this many wins for him?
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