mzu wrote:He hit 31 last year + the fences being moved in don't see him hitting less than 30 again.
He had 27 combined in 1700 PA before last year. He actually hit less fly balls but his HR/FB jumped from a career rate of around 6% to 21.4%. Not many people can sustain a rate like that (it was the 10th highest in all of baseball last year). I'd say there's a much better chance that he hits around 20 than that hits around 30.