King Felix extended for 7 years, $175M

[GiantsFan14]

It just seems crazy that this is what it takes to lock up a pitcher two years away from free agency. How much could he have gotten on the open market?

Greinke and Lee got almost the same AAV (for 6 and 5 yrs) despite being A) worse and older and B) being quite old. It's crazy to think how much Felix would have gotten on the open market.

Cain's contract is looking pretty good at this point.

[Skin Blues]

It should be noted that Greinke and Lee are guaranteed 24.5 and 24 per year (Lee has a $15M vesting option). Felix is getting 27 per year from his extension. Greinke and Lee were also FAs whereas Felix is two years away. The Mariners are gambling not only that Felix's arm is OK now, after losing a full tick off his fastball two seasons in a row, but that it will still be OK two years from now when the extension kicks in. That cannot be understated. When you factor in the cost of the added risk of being 2 years away form the contract kicking in, this is for far more than $27M. By the time 2015 rolls around, his arm could have gone full-LIncecum by then. You never go full-Lincecum. If I was a Mariners fan I'd have been happy to ride out the final two years at $20M each and say adios. It sucks that they were terrible for what would have been his entire tenure as a Mariner, but that's the way it is sometimes.

[Element]

velocity might be down but K's are increasing and BB's decreasing every season - maybe the velocity is still there but he knows that he doesn't need it?

This gets overlooked a lot, IMO. Greinke and Kershaw both have the ability to throw 96-97 when they want to. Felix still has 98 in his back pocket for when he absolutely needs it. He's learn how to pitch.

[HOOTIE]

I don't like over 4 years for pitchers, but other then Kershaw, Felix would be my 2nd choice for a long contract.

[Skin Blues]

velocity might be down but K's are increasing and BB's decreasing every season - maybe the velocity is still there but he knows that he doesn't need it?

This gets overlooked a lot, IMO. Greinke and Kershaw both have the ability to throw 96-97 when they want to. Felix still has 98 in his back pocket for when he absolutely needs it. He's learn how to pitch.

This is simply creating a narrative to support your beliefs. Head in the sand kind of stuff. Are you saying in 2009 and 2010 when he had a combined ERA of 2.38 and finished second and then first in CY voting, that he didn't yet know how to pitch? But now that he's lost a significant amount of velocity over the span of 2 seasons and seen a marked rise in his ERA, that he's had a revelation that he doesn't need to throw hard? Just like Lincecum learned how to pitch by throwing softer and not using his slider any more.

I hope this works out for Seattle because it's great to see a team willing to spend money, but I really get the feeling that it will be an albatross preventing them from competing down the road 4-5 years from now and it was a completely unnecessary move to make at this point with 2 years left.

[HOOTIE]

Felix xFIP the last 2 years, was better then in 09-10.
His K/9 has also increased every year.
Lincecum K/9 was dropping every year.
I don't buy Timmy comparisions.
Felix has a much better delivery then Timmy, and body frame.

[Ender]

Oh yeah I don't buy the Lincecum comparison either. I think Felix is a good bet for the next 2-3 years, I worry about the stuff they tacked on and they could have waited a year to do it.

[Element]

velocity might be down but K's are increasing and BB's decreasing every season - maybe the velocity is still there but he knows that he doesn't need it?

This gets overlooked a lot, IMO. Greinke and Kershaw both have the ability to throw 96-97 when they want to. Felix still has 98 in his back pocket for when he absolutely needs it. He's learn how to pitch.

This is simply creating a narrative to support your beliefs. Head in the sand kind of stuff. Are you saying in 2009 and 2010 when he had a combined ERA of 2.38 and finished second and then first in CY voting, that he didn't yet know how to pitch? But now that he's lost a significant amount of velocity over the span of 2 seasons and seen a marked rise in his ERA, that he's had a revelation that he doesn't need to throw hard? Just like Lincecum learned how to pitch by throwing softer and not using his slider any more.

I hope this works out for Seattle because it's great to see a team willing to spend money, but I really get the feeling that it will be an albatross preventing them from competing down the road 4-5 years from now and it was a completely unnecessary move to make at this point with 2 years left.

Are you saying that pitchers can't become smarter and more economical as they gain experience? Perhaps it doesn't add to his fantasy appeal, but it still doesn't mean that he can't ramp it up when/if he chooses. Fangraph's data doesn't separate his 2-seamer from his 4-seamer. They just classify as fastball. There is a 2-4 mph difference between the two. He throws a lot more 2-seamers now than he did when he broke in. He still has that high 90's 4-seamer when he wants to throw high fastball by someone. IMO, Felix ranks #2 in pure stuff behind only Verlander.

[Skin Blues]

I don't know what you're looking at but it seems you're calling a 2-seamer is classified as a sinker or changeup. Regardless, they are all classified separately. And yeah it's possible that he's purposely dropping 2 MPH on his fastball but that doesn't make too much sense considering the success he was having. More likely it's the slowly breaking down that every pitchers arm faces when they throw so many innings. Even without this drop in velocity, it just makes no sense to do this with 2 seasons of control left. It's not like they got a discount in return for assuming so much risk. They basically gave him the Cain deal with an extra 35% AAV for a guy that was a full year further from free agency.

[GiantsFan14]

Ya, I don't think anyone is saying this can't work out for the mariners. Just that if
you're extendingk a guy that is still 2 full years from free agency you'd expect to get some sort of discount. Now it's possible that he get an even bigger contract in two years but this is still a lot of risk to take on while still paying a premium.