Brett Lawrie 2012 OBP .324 Career avg OBP .336; 11 HR in 494 At bats in 2012. 73 runs, 48 RBI
Josh Willingham 2012 OBP .366 Career avg OBP .362; 35 HR in 519 AB in 2012. 85 runs, 110 RBI
Perhaps I am missing something? I understand that Willingham is going to strike out about twice as much as Lawrie, but come on- someone is going to have to explain to me why Lawrie in the 11th is a better pick than Willingham in the 16th in a league that counts OBP.
kaiser wrote:Brett Lawrie 2012 OBP .324 Career avg OBP .336; 11 HR in 494 At bats in 2012. 73 runs, 48 RBI
Josh Willingham 2012 OBP .366 Career avg OBP .362; 35 HR in 519 AB in 2012. 85 runs, 110 RBI
Perhaps I am missing something? I understand that Willingham is going to strike out about twice as much as Lawrie, but come on- someone is going to have to explain to me why Lawrie in the 11th is a better pick than Willingham in the 16th in a league that counts OBP.
Because Willingham will be 34 at season start, tends to miss time with nagging injuries (which won't get better as he gets older, doesnt steal many bases and plays in a position , OF, where there are several players like him available, like Carlos Quentin or Garrett Jones
Lawrie is a 3B which doesn't have the talent load that OF does, he is also only 23, has a higher ceiling, now has a stacked lineup around him, double digits in steals, and does project to have more power a good example player is Chase Headley from 2009-2011 hit 12,11,4 hr's respectivly with a so/so OBP then hit 31 in 2012,
ESPN also Ranks Lawrie as the #10 best 3B going into 2013, and Willingham as the #29 ranked OF going into 2013 Lawrie is more likely to improve in 2013, whereas Willingham is more likely to regress
At first glance I would take Willingham's 29 HR because power is harder to come by in a typical draft than speed. Lawrie is attractive with a higher BA and SB and a possible higher upside. I personally think Lawrie was over-hyped due to a hitter friendly minors. Until Lawrie hits .300 in the majors I'm not buying in on him. You can find similar stats to his projected stats all across the board, not too many 30 HR hitters. Your other 4 keepers might play a roll in this too. Which stats are you more concerned with BA and SB or HR and RBI. My vote would be Willingham. His power looked consistent in the "prove it" year last season.
I get that Willingham is 33, and that Lawrie has all the buzz about "upside," primarily since we've been hearing that buzz for a couple seasons now.
I fully agree that Lawrie could be a much value at 11 than Willingham at 16, if he puts it all together. But I'm not going to use position scarcity, age or "nagging injuries" as my deciding factors. After all, even with his nagging injuries and advanced age, Willingham was able to get 25 more at bats than Lawrie last year. In the end, I'm going to go with the greater value: the guy who has actually put up the numbers, at a price five rounds lower.
kaiser wrote:I get that Willingham is 33, and that Lawrie has all the buzz about "upside," primarily since we've been hearing that buzz for a couple seasons now.
I fully agree that Lawrie could be a much value at 11 than Willingham at 16, if he puts it all together. But I'm not going to use position scarcity, age or "nagging injuries" as my deciding factors. After all, even with his nagging injuries and advanced age, Willingham was able to get 25 more at bats than Lawrie last year. In the end, I'm going to go with the greater value: the guy who has actually put up the numbers, at a price five rounds lower.
Position Scarcity is everything if you are trying to build a well rounded team, especially in a Keeper league where most people will keep potential, Willingham is a 25-30hr hitter, which is good but not uncommon among OF.
Possible 3B Candidates after RD7 in most drafts, Jeff Keppinger, Albert Callaspo, Jordan Pacheco Possible OF Candidates after RD 13 in most drafts, Dexter Fowler, Nick Swisher, Alfonso Soriano, Jayson werth, Michael Cuddyer, Garrett Jones, Drew Stubbs, Matt Joyce, Cody Ross, Tyler Colvin
Position Scarcity is everything if you are trying to build a well rounded team, especially in a Keeper league where most people will keep potential[/quote]
I strongly disagree that position scarcity is everything.
In my opinion, value, i. e. getting best return on your investment, is far more important.
Again, I understand fully why someone would want Lawrie in a keeper. His potential value is significant. But in this perticular scenario, I believe Willingham's markedly better OBP is a better value than Lawrie's potential at 11.
Willingham has a career OBP around .360, Lawrie was in his 1st full season, the half season before he had a.394 OBP, also Lawrie minor league numbers suggest that his OBP should be around .360 at the MLB level, Willingham career averages in HR's is about 25 Lawrie's ceiling is about 20-25 hrs and throw in double digit steals, things would be way different if Willingham stll had catcher eligibility
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