2013 Royals - Contending or disappointing fail?

[OBPlover]

Royals suck.

As a good rule of thumb I tend to avoid Royals in my fantasy leagues and I sleep well at night. Yeah you get the occassional gem like Billy Butler but I just avoid. It's just a team that keeps finding new ways to suck. Someone is suppose to emerge and be great ...and then bamn..out of nowhere they just suck.

They have the overrated James Shields and a lot of question marks in their rotation. Their lineup consists mostly of guys that don't walk and are inconsistent at the best of times. Cain..Escobar. Don't walk. A gordon walks so much but is one of the streakiest hitters around. Good old Billy but he's not enough. Sal Perez..could be great..but still high risk. MOO sucks. Francouer Sucks. Hosmer might come around but for now he sucks.

And yeah, in The AL East and West there are some legit good teams and no way to win the Central with the tigers.

[lane_anasazi2]

Royals suck.

As a good rule of thumb I tend to avoid Royals in my fantasy leagues and I sleep well at night. Yeah you get the occassional gem like Billy Butler but I just avoid. It's just a team that keeps finding new ways to suck. Someone is suppose to emerge and be great ...and then bamn..out of nowhere they just suck.

Really well-thought-out analysis there.

You know, I'm a Mariners fan, and whenever I hear some casual crack about how they're going to be 4th in the AL West for the next 15 years because 'they have no home run bats,' it's frustrating. You want to hate on a team, fine, but you'd better have a more coherent argument than that.

[OBPlover]

Can I not be a little bit whimsical and colorful? Is every analysis to be based on charts lifted off of Fangraphs.com?

Ok then...

They have poor hitting.

They have poor pitching.

Therefore, they won't win many games.

Yes I agree, my personal disdain for the Royals is not based completely on logic. It has been formulated through many frustrating draft picks over the years.

But yes, their team sucks statistically too.

[askretzinger]

http://www.mlbdepthcharts.com/2012/10/kansas-city-royals-2012-13-offseason.html

1 CF Lorenzo Cain
2 SS Alcides Escobar
3 LF Alex Gordon*
4 DH Billy Butler
5 3B Mike Moustakas*
6 C Salvador Perez
7 1B Eric Hosmer*
8 RF Jeff Francoeur
9 2B Chris Getz* vs RHP

Projected Starting Rotation
1 RHP James Shields
2 RHP Jeremy Guthrie
3 RHP Ervin Santana
4 RHP Wade Davis
5 LHP Bruce Chen

Projected Bullpen
CL RHP Greg Holland
SU RHP Kelvin Herrera BA#7 BP#9
SU RHP Aaron Crow
MID LHP Tim Collins
MID RHP Luke Hochevar
MID LHP Everett Teaford BA#26
LR RHP Luis Mendoza

I don't think they can do it. Their rotation beyond J.Shields (a top-10 SP in 2012) is woeful.
Guthrie, Santana, Hochevar and Chen were amongst the 30 worst SPs in 2012. W.Davis has a 5.9 K/9 and 4.22 ERA as a starter.
Sure, they have Gordon and Butler...but they also have Francoeur and Alcides providing negative value every time they bat.

I think what happens with Hosmer and Moustakas will decide if they even get near .500. Will Hosmer provide some power? Will Mous lift his walk rate/OBP?

I'm predicting they end up with 77-80 wins. What do you think?

Alcides hit .293 last season and a .331 OBP. I hardly think that qualifies as "negative value every time they bat."

2011 Francoeur stats: 77 runs, 20 HR, 87 RBi, 22 SB, .285....so he CAN do it, the question is which Francoeur you get.

I would agree the rotation isn't fantastic but before last season Santana has been a consistent starter, and even a "woeful" pitching staff is a step up from last year's 5+ starter's ERAs. If the starters shave a run off their ERA in 2012 from 2011 (very possible) you think the Royals can't get substantially better than the 72 wins they managed to obtain with last year's rotation? I agree they would need a lot of pieces to fall into place to compete with Detroit, but it's POSSIBLE.

[askretzinger]

2014 is more realistic for being a "contender." Chen and Hochevar are gone after 2013 freeing up approx. $10-11 Million. Hopefully Danny Duffy emerges by then too.

[lastingsgriller]

They'll probably contend for a while and then crash in an epic meltdown that breaks the hearts of Royals fans in a way that a 60-win season never could.

[Ender]

The obvious answer is neither. They wont' contend and no realistic fan expects them contend yet. They will attempt to finally break .500 while breaking in more young players.

[Tavish]

They'll probably contend for a while and then crash in an epic meltdown that breaks the hearts of Royals fans in a way that a 60-win season never could.

I think a ton of Royals fans would be ok with that.

[chargerss24]

Remember that Shields is a FA after '14. If they don't contend to the end this year and start poorly next, you can safely bet that Shields will be traded, possibly others as well, and you'll see the vicious cycle of rebuilding continue.

[Y`s Guy]

I can see the Royals being a nice story up until about August 1. Then better teams will rise to the top and kick this team back to reality...75 wins.

I am almost locked in on Shields as a must-have SP in the 3rd round or lower (due to Royals effect).