2013 Royals - Contending or disappointing fail?

[AussieDodger]

http://www.mlbdepthcharts.com/2012/10/kansas-city-royals-2012-13-offseason.html

1 CF Lorenzo Cain
2 SS Alcides Escobar
3 LF Alex Gordon*
4 DH Billy Butler
5 3B Mike Moustakas*
6 C Salvador Perez
7 1B Eric Hosmer*
8 RF Jeff Francoeur
9 2B Chris Getz* vs RHP

Projected Starting Rotation
1 RHP James Shields
2 RHP Jeremy Guthrie
3 RHP Ervin Santana
4 RHP Wade Davis
5 LHP Bruce Chen

Projected Bullpen
CL RHP Greg Holland
SU RHP Kelvin Herrera BA#7 BP#9
SU RHP Aaron Crow
MID LHP Tim Collins
MID RHP Luke Hochevar
MID LHP Everett Teaford BA#26
LR RHP Luis Mendoza

I don't think they can do it. Their rotation beyond J.Shields (a top-10 SP in 2012) is woeful.
Guthrie, Santana, Hochevar and Chen were amongst the 30 worst SPs in 2012. W.Davis has a 5.9 K/9 and 4.22 ERA as a starter.
Sure, they have Gordon and Butler...but they also have Francoeur and Alcides providing negative value every time they bat.

I think what happens with Hosmer and Moustakas will decide if they even get near .500. Will Hosmer provide some power? Will Mous lift his walk rate/OBP?

I'm predicting they end up with 77-80 wins. What do you think?

[Pogotheostrich]

Is .500 baseball a fail?
If Hosmer, Moustakas and Perez all improve like the Royals hope I still don't think it will be enough.

[GiantsFan14]

I think they'll stay close enough to make some bad decisions at the trade deadline, but only because the AL Central isn't very good.

[fast dogs]

I'm going to be a little more optimistic; 84-87 wins with a much better year from Hosmer and the emergence of Perez as a team leader on both sides of the ball. SP needs a little more luck & health than in '12 which isn't asking much. Santana is 16 games over 500 for his career, if he's over 500 in '13 I think the Royals are too. Tough opening 3 1/2 weeks with just 1 homestand, if they can come out of that in decent shape they can contend

[Tavish]

I don't think they can do it. Their rotation beyond J.Shields (a top-10 SP in 2012) is woeful.
Guthrie, Santana, Hochevar and Chen were amongst the 30 worst SPs in 2012. W.Davis has a 5.9 K/9 and 4.22 ERA as a starter.
Sure, they have Gordon and Butler...but they also have Francoeur and Alcides providing negative value every time they bat.

I think what happens with Hosmer and Moustakas will decide if they even get near .500. Will Hosmer provide some power? Will Mous lift his walk rate/OBP?

I'm predicting they end up with 77-80 wins. What do you think?

The staff is going to have to come up with a WAR somewhere in the area of 12+ for them to even stay close. There are a ton of wildcard arms in there, but the biggest concern for me is that the team will make decision based more on the contract status of the players instead of on the actual performance. Guthrie's numbers in KC were excellent, his 1.5 WAR in 14 starts is really obscured by his time in Baltimore. Between Guthrie and Shields the team should have at least half that 12+ WAR covered, its filling the rest of the innings with the best between Santana, Mendoza, Davis, Chen, Hochevar, Paulino, Duffy, and Smith that will be the keys for the staff. 170+ innings with a low 4 ERA out of at least two of that group and the team is in really good shape.

The bullpen might be one of the best (if not the best) in the AL again with shutdown arms in almost every spot. Holland struggled some last year before finding his groove, but the rotation just plain wore out most of the other arms by the end of the season.

Not sure why the hate on Escobar. He was pretty much an average hitting shortstop last season that has a ton of value on the bases. If he is the worst player on your team, you have a real good shot at winning any division in baseball. The problem is that they have no one that can play 2B at the ML level at this point, they are better off having no one play RF, and their middle of the order 1B looked like a little leaguer at the plate for most of last year.

I've got them pegged at around 84 wins but I don't think that will be anywhere close to the Tigers who I think will be close to 100 wins. Hosmer and the back end of the rotation could fall apart and have the team in the low 70s and I wouldn't be shocked. Or they could find a grove and push closer to 90 wins, but that would really surprise me.

[J35J]

I don't think they can do it. Their rotation beyond J.Shields (a top-10 SP in 2012) is woeful.
Guthrie, Santana, Hochevar and Chen were amongst the 30 worst SPs in 2012. W.Davis has a 5.9 K/9 and 4.22 ERA as a starter.
Sure, they have Gordon and Butler...but they also have Francoeur and Alcides providing negative value every time they bat.

I think what happens with Hosmer and Moustakas will decide if they even get near .500. Will Hosmer provide some power? Will Mous lift his walk rate/OBP?

I'm predicting they end up with 77-80 wins. What do you think?

The staff is going to have to come up with a WAR somewhere in the area of 12+ for them to even stay close. There are a ton of wildcard arms in there, but the biggest concern for me is that the team will make decision based more on the contract status of the players instead of on the actual performance. Guthrie's numbers in KC were excellent, his 1.5 WAR in 14 starts is really obscured by his time in Baltimore. Between Guthrie and Shields the team should have at least half that 12+ WAR covered, its filling the rest of the innings with the best between Santana, Mendoza, Davis, Chen, Hochevar, Paulino, Duffy, and Smith that will be the keys for the staff. 170+ innings with a low 4 ERA out of at least two of that group and the team is in really good shape.

The bullpen might be one of the best (if not the best) in the AL again with shutdown arms in almost every spot. Holland struggled some last year before finding his groove, but the rotation just plain wore out most of the other arms by the end of the season.

Not sure why the hate on Escobar. He was pretty much an average hitting shortstop last season that has a ton of value on the bases. If he is the worst player on your team, you have a real good shot at winning any division in baseball. The problem is that they have no one that can play 2B at the ML level at this point, they are better off having no one play RF, and their middle of the order 1B looked like a little leaguer at the plate for most of last year.

I've got them pegged at around 84 wins but I don't think that will be anywhere close to the Tigers who I think will be close to 100 wins. Hosmer and the back end of the rotation could fall apart and have the team in the low 70s and I wouldn't be shocked. Or they could find a grove and push closer to 90 wins, but that would really surprise me.

Pretty much sums it up.

[Skin Blues]

They should be expecting bounce-back years from a few players, but there's just too much that needs to go right all at the same time to have a shot at the playoffs. Maybe Hosmer and Moose have better years, but maybe Alcides has a dropoff. He had wRC+ of 62 and 71 in the two years before last season when he was damn near an average hitter. Shields is not an ace and will struggle after being removed from the Trop and there's just not a whole lot behind him other than a bunch of 4th/5th starters. There are black holes at RF/2B and really not any superstars anywhere else to push them past being a .500 team, let alone winning the 90+ games it will take to make the playoffs. But anything can happen, just look at the Orioles last season.

[Kimbos Beard]

If by contending you mean that they will be close enough at the trade deadline to be considered "in the mix". Maybe. Last year the Tigers got out to an awful start so the Central seemed more competitive than it really is. If the Tigers come out of the gate hot they should probably be able to bury the central early. On paper, there isn't any team in the central near the talent of the Tigers this year.

[Skin Blues]

Yeah, having Anibal all year, Victor Martinez returning and taking Delmon Young's 600 plate appearances, Omar Infante instead of Raburn/Worth/Santiago at 2B. Lots of improvements for a team that already finished 16 games above the Royals last year. Wild card is their chance, but between Angels/Rangers/A's and Yankees/Jays/Rays I think they'll have a very hard time getting close to that either.

[Ender]

Tigers had plenty of guys play better than expected last year too. They earned that record, it wasn't a fluke. They definitely should be better this year though.