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Justin Upton to the Braves

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Re: Justin Upton to the Braves

Postby OBPlover » Wed Jan 30, 2013 10:46 pm

Skin Blues wrote:
OBPlover wrote:Basically, here's why they signed Cody Ross and traded Upton. It has to do with management's belief that "grim and gritty" wins you ballgames more than actual talent, stats or other things people look for in the fantasy world.

That being said, in terms of immediately useful pieces, the trade is in effect, Cody Ross+Martin Prado+Randy Delgado for Justin Upton. From a fantasy perspective it sucks due to Jupton's enormous upside but from a practical level, it's not really all that bad.

They turned a cost controlled 3 years of a budding superstar into a vastly overpaid platoon OF, lottery ticket pitching prospect, and one year of Martin Prado. On a practical level it is really bad. They don't make their team that much worse this season (same can't be said for future seasons), but there's the lost opportunity cost of making it much, much better than this. Any decent GM should be able to turn Young, Bauer and Upton into much more than an expiring contract for a decent hitting 3B and a couple crappy shortstops.


But you already concluded, beyond all doubt, that Justin Upton is going to become the next big superstar. There's no doubt he has the ability to do so. But there are lingering issues such as his Home/Away splits and his mediocre 2012 overall performance. Yeah, if he's a superstar in 2013, it's a bad deal but if Justin Upton duplicates his overall stat line from 2012, than it probably works in Arizona's Favour.

I do agree with you that they traded Bauer for scraps though. I'm focusing on the Prado/Upton deal exclusively.
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Re: Justin Upton to the Braves

Postby kab21 » Wed Jan 30, 2013 11:04 pm

OBPlover wrote:But you already concluded, beyond all doubt, that Justin Upton is going to become the next big superstar. There's no doubt he has the ability to do so. But there are lingering issues such as his Home/Away splits and his mediocre 2012 overall performance. Yeah, if he's a superstar in 2013, it's a bad deal but if Justin Upton duplicates his overall stat line from 2012, than it probably works in Arizona's Favour.

I do agree with you that they traded Bauer for scraps though. I'm focusing on the Prado/Upton deal exclusively.


A - I never would have guessed that you are British.

B- If you want to play the same silly argument then what if Prado duplicates his 2011 stat line? Delgado has a solid chance to be a nice MOR arm but he's not that great. The rest of the prospects are spare parts.

C - Upton is an extremely frustrating player to cheer for. Part of this is due to the injuries and part of it is due to being potentially elite. yet even in his worst season he was still decent. We're not talking Delmon Young type of disappoinment.
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Re: Justin Upton to the Braves

Postby OBPlover » Wed Jan 30, 2013 11:52 pm

A - I never would have guessed that you are British.


I'm not. I am Canadian.
B- If you want to play the same silly argument then what if Prado duplicates his 2011 stat line? Delgado has a solid chance to be a nice MOR arm but he's not that great. The rest of the prospects are spare parts.


It's not a silly argument. The most recent season takes priority over previous seasons when evaluating players, does it not? Are you still rating Ricky Romero And Tim Lincecum as ace pitchers because of their 2011 seasons?

Anyways, even if he is does faulter on offense, his defense and positional flexibility will always hedge his value as a player in a way that stats will not fully reflect. Why can't you understand that?

C - Upton is an extremely frustrating player to cheer for. Part of this is due to the injuries and part of it is due to being potentially elite. yet even in his worst season he was still decent. We're not talking Delmon Young type of disappoinment.


He's decent. Nobody is saying he's not decent. Just that this trade is not as lopsided as you and many others seem to think. They already had Cody Ross. Yes signing him due to some inexplicable mental factor is somewhat foolish but once he's been signed, it reduces the impact on losing Upton. Then they get Prado who they truly needed. It's not the perfect round of maneuvers by KT but it's not as bad as you think.
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Re: Justin Upton to the Braves

Postby Ender » Thu Jan 31, 2013 12:38 am

Are you still rating Ricky Romero And Tim Lincecum as ace pitchers because of their 2011 seasons?


To be fair I'm not rating Romero as an ace pitcher from 2011 regardless of what he did in 2012 and Lincecum was only a soft ace at that point~. These were 2 completely predictable collapses just not to the degree at which they collapsed.
Last edited by Ender on Thu Jan 31, 2013 10:22 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Justin Upton to the Braves

Postby OBPlover » Thu Jan 31, 2013 1:35 am

I know they were headed downhill...it's just for the purposes of example.

Roy Halladay, Eric Hosmer, Chase Headley, AAron Hill, or any number of players whose' stats varied greatly from 2011 to 2012. Which year should be given more importance? 2011 or 2012?
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Re: Justin Upton to the Braves

Postby Skin Blues » Thu Jan 31, 2013 8:22 am

More importance =/= all of the importance. In Prado's career best season he was barely better hitter than Upton in the worst season of his career (.345 wOBA vs .341 wOBA). Whereas in 2011 Upton was at .385 and Prado was at .302. Looking at those numbers, you probably thought Upton was the next Pujols and Prado was the next Jerry Hairston based it solely on the most recent season.
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Re: Justin Upton to the Braves

Postby kab21 » Thu Jan 31, 2013 11:24 am

OBPlover wrote:It's not a silly argument. The most recent season takes priority over previous seasons when evaluating players, does it not? Are you still rating Ricky Romero And Tim Lincecum as ace pitchers because of their 2011 seasons?


I forgot that Canadians used to favour the british spellings.

The reason that it is silly is that most wouldn't use a single season to make a projection. I see Prado as a nice 3-4 WAR player while Upton is anywhere from a 3-6 WAR player. Sure Upton had a 2.5 WAR season but we're also talking about a player's age 26-28 seasons (his prime).
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Re: Justin Upton to the Braves

Postby OBPlover » Thu Jan 31, 2013 6:23 pm

I forgot that Canadians used to favour the british spellings.


We still do. But American influence means that most Canadians understand or use both forms of spelling.

The reason that it is silly is that most wouldn't use a single season to make a projection. I see Prado as a nice 3-4 WAR player while Upton is anywhere from a 3-6 WAR player. Sure Upton had a 2.5 WAR season but we're also talking about a player's age 26-28 seasons (his prime).


I look at previous seasons too. But I think you are skirting around some key issues here. 2012 stats take priority over 2011 and Prado's War was close to Uptons. Plus there are some limitations in the War statistic itself which is going to work against Prado. There is value in having Prado's positional flexibility. If he ends up playing 3rd base all year he will be compared with other 3rd baseman to determine WAR. But if he is capable of switching over to 2B or the Outfield and playing above average defense, than there is extra value there unmeasured by WAR. He is an insurance policy. WAR only measures what a player "has done" as opposed to what he "could have done" as the situation dictated.
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Re: Justin Upton to the Braves

Postby HOOTIE » Thu Jan 31, 2013 6:35 pm

Upton played with a bad finger all year.
I wouldn't put too much stock into his numbers last year.
It was a bad deal by AZ long term.
It might be a push this year at best for AZ.
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Re: Justin Upton to the Braves

Postby BigZ38 » Fri Feb 01, 2013 1:27 am

HOOTIE wrote:Upton played with a bad finger all year.
I wouldn't put too much stock into his numbers last year.
It was a bad deal by AZ long term.
It might be a push this year at best for AZ.


I want to believe injuries hampered JUpton but quite frankly, I'm concerned about his shoulder.
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