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Justin Upton to the Braves

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Re: Justin Upton to the Braves

Postby OBPlover » Fri Jan 25, 2013 9:41 pm

Montana168 wrote:Reminds me of the deal that sent James Shields to KC. That deal was heavily lopsided in favor of TB, and KC received a solid vet, but they are unlikely to contend this year so didn't make sense.

Similarly here, the Dbacks gave up a young Justin Upton for a solid vet in Prado but they are unlikely to contend so didn't make sense really.

Although I really think this deal was made in anticipation of another move: moving Prado at the deadline. If the Dbacks are out of contention at the trade deadline, I'd be shocked if Martin Prado was still wearing a Dbacks uniform at the end of the year. Makes sense to lock him up to a long term deal now so that when you trade him, the acquiring team is not just acquiring a rental player. So the D-backs shipped Upton for the best deal they could find, and got back a solid vet that should yield them a decent batch of prospects at the deadline. Prado would be a perfect fit for a team like the Dodgers (3b) or Cards (2b) or Angels (3b) at the deadline.


Personally, I think KT has some kind of behind the scenes discussion with Prado's agent before this deal and a long term deal will be worked out before opening day.

The Dbacks are playing to win. Prado will help them win. The Dbacks are a legit dark horse contender for a Wild Card spot.
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Re: Justin Upton to the Braves

Postby Ender » Sat Jan 26, 2013 12:49 am

MaudDib wrote:
IMO not quite the same ballpark as the KC trade. Maybe it is my biased opinion since I am a Royals fan and one of the few it seems that was ok with the deal. But KC gave up a top prospect who has done nothing in the majors. The Diamondbacks gave up a guy who was 5th in MVP voting in 2011 and had a very solid but unspectacular year last year. I also think Shields has more value especially with KC as they had little to no SP and they get Shields for two years instead of Prado for 1. At some point it might look bad for KC but if Myers turns into any number of failed prospects or any number of prospects that took much longer to produce than was originally expected, I don't think the deal will look bad for KC.

It already looks bad for the DBacks.


True. The KC deal was way way worse. The DBacks got a player back that actually has matched Upton in value for the past 3 seasons and who seems to want to sign with them long term for a not outrageous price. The Royals overpayed for a player who was being carried by the Rays park and defense and gave up way too much even if he somehow manages to repeat his previous seasons which he has almost no hope of doing.
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Re: Justin Upton to the Braves

Postby SpecialFNK » Sun Jan 27, 2013 4:45 pm

I don't know if this has been mentioned, but what type of effect does it have with Upton's home/away splits?

2012 home- .313/.390/.534/.924/ 11 HR
2012 away- .252/.326/.344/.670/ 6 HR

2011 home- .333/.411/.622/1.033/ 20 HR
2011 away- .246/.328/.439/.767/ 11 HR

2010 home- .282/.371/.436/.807/ 8 HR
2010 away- .264/.341/.449/.790/ 9 HR
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Re: Justin Upton to the Braves

Postby daullaz » Mon Jan 28, 2013 11:03 am

Luckily, he doesn't have to play 162 games on the road:

Career in ATL: .293/.388/.483

It's a small sample size, but that's usually against some pretty solid pitching. Factor in him getting to play next to his brother, and I don't see the home/away splits being an issue.
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Re: Justin Upton to the Braves

Postby kaiser » Mon Jan 28, 2013 11:05 am

daullaz wrote:Luckily, he doesn't have to play 162 games on the road:

Career in ATL: .293/.388/.483

It's a small sample size, but that's usually against some pretty solid pitching. Factor in him getting to play next to his brother, and I don't see the home/away splits being an issue.


Agreed. Turner Field generally tends to play as a fairly neutral ballpark for hitters. Not as good as Arizona, but not markedly worse, either.
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Re: Justin Upton to the Braves

Postby Pogotheostrich » Mon Jan 28, 2013 11:15 am

OBPlover wrote:The Dbacks are playing to win. Prado will help them win. The Dbacks are a legit dark horse contender for a Wild Card spot.

I don't see how turning J. Upton into Prado helps them win.
Anything can happen but I consider them a longshot. Just in there own division the Giants and Dodgers seems better to me. I'd put the Nats, Reds, Braves, Cards and Phillies ahead of them too.
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Re: Justin Upton to the Braves

Postby Kimbos Beard » Mon Jan 28, 2013 11:17 am

Also, I think I remember hearing/reading that his away splits were not that telling. I think he didn't hit well in AT&T park, hit extremely well in Petco and just average in Coors. The point being that his road stats didn't necessarily indicate that he could only hit in hitter friendly parks.
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Re: Justin Upton to the Braves

Postby Ender » Mon Jan 28, 2013 3:19 pm

I don't see how turning J. Upton into Prado helps them win.


Strictly speaking the DBacks probably gained wins in this trade when you consider the players they have covering the positions without the trade. They were going to have to sit a +1 WAR or better player and they had a hole at 3B. Delgado could certainly help them this year as well.
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Re: Justin Upton to the Braves

Postby Skin Blues » Mon Jan 28, 2013 7:21 pm

Right, but you don't evaluate a trade based on whether it makes you better for the current season. The Rangers could trade Mike Olt and Jurickson Profar for a couple of middle relievers and end up with a higher total WAR for 2013. It's kind of baffling to see what the D'Backs almost got from the Mariners, and then see what they actually ended up with from Atlanta. Wouldn't exactly have been the end of the world to have Eaton start the season in the minors and push his clock back a year, either. Or to simply have not signed Cody Ross for $26M. Quite a botch job done by KT, I must say.
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Re: Justin Upton to the Braves

Postby bigh0rt » Mon Jan 28, 2013 8:18 pm

Couldn't the Mets have beaten this offer? :~(
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