Then you probably have unreasonable expectations for Machado or are weighing age much too high in a league that only keeps 7.
According to the OP, there aren't restrictions on how long to keep players (unless there are and they aren't posted). So age is a major factor, and I also realize Sandoval is young too, just 26, so my reasoning is that I think Machado will be comparable this year and MUCH better long term.
Look at Sandoval's history; he's a major injury risk, he's missed 40+ games in two years in a row. Call it a fluke if you want, but generally guys built his size don't hold up well. Then his stats aren't amazing either; they are good, but not incredible by any means. His per 162 avgs in his 5 years are: 22 HRs, 88 RBIs, .303 BA, 79 runs. Machado, in his one partial season had a pace that's comparable to Sandoval's 5 seasons at: 22 HRs, 83 RBIs, .262 BA, 76 runs.
So age is a factor, but more in the sense that Machado should grow into a much more elite player than Sandoval.
Pretty small sample on Machado there, I would be shocked if he posted a line that good this season. Pablo will likely outproduce him in every category other than SB by a significant margin. Almost all of his missed time in the last two years has been to breaking the hamate bone in each of his hands. Since the hamate is removed when broken, that's a problem he'll never have to deal with again. He's still only 26 and in a league that only keeps 7, the players would have to be putting up incredibly similar numbers this year before I started considering age and long term stats. There's just too much variance in baseball to sacrifice stats in the current year for possible benefit down the line.
Last edited by GiantsFan14 on Wed Jan 23, 2013 11:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
GiantsFan14 wrote:Pretty small sample on Machado there, I would be shocked if he posted a line that good this season. Pablo will likely outproduce him in every category other than SB by a significant margin. Almost all of his missed time in the last two years has been to breaking the hamate bone in each of his hands. Since the hamate when broken, that's a problem he'll never have to deal with again. He's still only 26 and in a league that only keeps 7, the players would have to be putting up incredibly similar numbers this year before I started considering age and long term stats. There's just too much variance in baseball to sacrifice stats in the current year for possible benefit down the line.
Agree with all this. Too many people over estimate young players and rank them ahead of guys that have an established history. Happened last year with Lawrie and Hosmer. The year before with Heyward. And one big reason why I will stay away from Trout.
"In the beginning the Universe was created. This has made a lot of people very angry and has been widely regarded as a bad move."- Douglas Adams
GiantsFan14 wrote:JP Arencibia Michael Brantley Austin Jackson Brett Jackson Desmond Jennings Matt Kemp Ian Kinsler Manny Machado Daniel Murphy Mike Olt Hanley Ramirez Pablo Sandoval Alfonso Soriano Mark Trumbo Justin Upton
Mike Adams Joe Blanton Mark Buehrle Tyler Clippard Tyler Cloyd Zack Greinke Roy Halladay Kenley Jansen Wade Miley Tommy Milone Jonathon Niese David Robertson Jack Westbrook Vance Worley
Greinke, Kemp, Kinsler, Upton, and Hanley are no brainers. I think I prefer Olt to Jackson and the last spot could go to any number of guys. I have Pablo ranked the 75th hitter, Jackson the 80th, Trumbo 88th, and Jennings 89th. It really just comes down to personal preference at that point.
I agree with all this but would go with Jackson over Panda. Panda seems to get hurt every year.This may be the year he totally breaks.
GiantsFan14 wrote:Pretty small sample on Machado there, I would be shocked if he posted a line that good this season. Pablo will likely outproduce him in every category other than SB by a significant margin. Almost all of his missed time in the last two years has been to breaking the hamate bone in each of his hands. Since the hamate is removed when broken, that's a problem he'll never have to deal with again. He's still only 26 and in a league that only keeps 7, the players would have to be putting up incredibly similar numbers this year before I started considering age and long term stats. There's just too much variance in baseball to sacrifice stats in the current year for possible benefit down the line.
Almost all the time yes; but he also missed some time with a Hamstring injury, which is VERY concerning to me. I've owned him in a dynasty league for the last 4 years; I like him but I know what he does, and it's just kinda Meh to me. I may be overvaluing the hype of Machado, but he is considered by many to be an elite prospect. You say he won't repeat, but have no basis upon that. Most guys struggle when they come up, he did not. There is a better chance he can improve with more time than get worse.
I am not blinded by the Trout season; I don't expect a monster year, but I think it's worth it for one lesser year, to have him long term.
His hamstring injury came from the only game he played 1B all season when he did the splits to dig a ball out of the dirt. I'm not too worried about his health.
I do have a basis for suggesting that he won't be as good next year. He made the jump straight from AA where he performed well for his age, but still clearly needed more time for development. He posted a .293 BABIP despite a .243 xBABIP suggesting the average will come down. He didn't show much plate discipline last year and will likely be overmatched once the league adjusts to him this year. He's got plenty of talent, but he was rushed to the bigs when he probably wasn't ready and the underlying stats say he was lucky to do as well as he did last year. Taking him over a proven commodity (with upside) in Pablo is a mistake imo.
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