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Draft commentary

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Re: Draft commentary

Postby Saltydog » Thu Feb 07, 2013 4:26 pm

Iz was up all night waiting for me....
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Re: Draft commentary

Postby EL BURRO » Thu Feb 07, 2013 4:30 pm

TheRock wrote:
rjforlife wrote:... Drafting a mock and drafting a real league are entirely different because people take wild risks and intentionally don't draft players they are targeting in mocks because it somewhat defeats the purpose of seeing where they end up being chosen.


While we're in a lull for the next few hours...

This is entirely wrong and a complete cop-out IMO. But a lot of people do this so I'm not singling you out necessarily. If you're interested in seeing where a certain player will fall, then be the guy watching a mock, not the guy in the mock. Take Eaton for instance. I took him where I did because that's where I felt it was worth the gamble to take him. If I and the rest of us were employing your strategy, he would probably still be out there and we would be amazed that he was lasting so long. So is where I took him a reasonable expectation? Well according to your answer no, because you probably deliberately passed on him where you would normally take him and other players. The purpose of a mock is the give others in the greater community just what you said - a chance to see where players will fall. But if we as participants are deliberately NOT making selections we think are in the best interest of our team, then the mock loses value to everyone.

Agree with this take. Im drafting just like I would for a real draft. The lone exception is that we dont have a Bench. Therefore, you need to somewhat consider your risk / upside guys and their playing time. Notwithstanding, this is "generally" the way I draft - with the exception of some pitching. So, I have found the exercise very useful. My league is beyond competitive, so its good to know where other solid fantasy minds consider taking people. As stated above, it will likely help shape my big $ league selections in a month or so. Im much more interested in rounds 5-20, candidly as that is usually where drafts are won. So, my sleeper picks are the ones Im curious about where other people are targeting and drafting. That's the real value for me here. So, i encourage everyone to draft like they normally would rather than see where people 'fall" to. Will help everyone get better.

</soapbox>
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Re: Draft commentary

Postby Izenhart » Thu Feb 07, 2013 4:32 pm

Saltydog wrote:Iz was up all night waiting for me....


Yup I just sat there and hit refresh every 5 seconds until about 5 am. Alcohol may have been involved...
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Re: Draft commentary

Postby NikkiSixx » Thu Feb 07, 2013 5:01 pm

We totally haven't taken advantage of the whole send someone else you queue to keep the draft moving thing. At least we should be done before March lol.
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Re: Draft commentary

Postby rjforlife » Thu Feb 07, 2013 6:43 pm

TheRock wrote:
rjforlife wrote:... Drafting a mock and drafting a real league are entirely different because people take wild risks and intentionally don't draft players they are targeting in mocks because it somewhat defeats the purpose of seeing where they end up being chosen.


While we're in a lull for the next few hours...

This is entirely wrong and a complete cop-out IMO. But a lot of people do this so I'm not singling you out necessarily. If you're interested in seeing where a certain player will fall, then be the guy watching a mock, not the guy in the mock. Take Eaton for instance. I took him where I did because that's where I felt it was worth the gamble to take him. If I and the rest of us were employing your strategy, he would probably still be out there and we would be amazed that he was lasting so long. So is where I took him a reasonable expectation? Well according to your answer no, because you probably deliberately passed on him where you would normally take him and other players. The purpose of a mock is the give others in the greater community just what you said - a chance to see where players will fall. But if we as participants are deliberately NOT making selections we think are in the best interest of our team, then the mock loses value to everyone.

</soapbox>


I can understand your position, I just wanted to be up front about mine. To me, watching a mock is useless, I could just look at player rankings and figure things out. I wanted to be in a mock like NikkiSix said, to see what kind of team I can assemble. Being a part of the mock is the only way to truly see this, in my opinion.

I suppose I could have not let guys slip to see where they were drafted, but I also didn't eliminate them from my board entirely. I had Wade Miley way higher than everyone else, so when he continually fell, I had to take him. That's really what I mean by not taking your targets, I don't want to jump the gun on a guy if I could get him much later, so I pass on him and see if he will slide. If it were a true league, I may not have led Miley slide, but now because of passing on him the first time in the mock, I get the sense that I have him ranked high and can get him later than I originally thought.

As for people taking wild risks:

Goldschmidt 3.4
Harper 3.5
Jennings 4.6
Rizzo 5.5
Marte 9.1

Those are definitely risky picks, and I have to say that I do not see Goldschmidt going #32 overall in any drafts. I think Wingman could have taken another player and gotten Goldschmidt at #53, or he should at least have passed on Goldy to see if he could wait that long.

Anyways, sorry if there was a misunderstanding or you guys still hate the way I'm doing this mock, and thanks for letting me know about it. And I'm going to bid up everyone in the mock auction Saturday, I've been watching too much Storage Wars.
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Re: Draft commentary

Postby rotoquest » Thu Feb 07, 2013 7:16 pm

NikkiSixx wrote:We totally haven't taken advantage of the whole send someone else you queue to keep the draft moving thing. At least we should be done before March lol.


I concur with your diagnosis doctor.
Hey Rock can you make a selection for GP so we can jump start this thing a little. I just hope burro left some picks with someone.
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Re: Draft commentary

Postby EL BURRO » Thu Feb 07, 2013 7:41 pm

im still here. flight is at 11;55 PM PST --- like i said, i'm gonna be live as much as possible the next 4 days, even from mexico.
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Draft commentary

Postby wingman3110 » Thu Feb 07, 2013 10:22 pm

rjforlife wrote:
TheRock wrote:
rjforlife wrote:... Drafting a mock and drafting a real league are entirely different because people take wild risks and intentionally don't draft players they are targeting in mocks because it somewhat defeats the purpose of seeing where they end up being chosen.


While we're in a lull for the next few hours...

This is entirely wrong and a complete cop-out IMO. But a lot of people do this so I'm not singling you out necessarily. If you're interested in seeing where a certain player will fall, then be the guy watching a mock, not the guy in the mock. Take Eaton for instance. I took him where I did because that's where I felt it was worth the gamble to take him. If I and the rest of us were employing your strategy, he would probably still be out there and we would be amazed that he was lasting so long. So is where I took him a reasonable expectation? Well according to your answer no, because you probably deliberately passed on him where you would normally take him and other players. The purpose of a mock is the give others in the greater community just what you said - a chance to see where players will fall. But if we as participants are deliberately NOT making selections we think are in the best interest of our team, then the mock loses value to everyone.

</soapbox>


I can understand your position, I just wanted to be up front about mine. To me, watching a mock is useless, I could just look at player rankings and figure things out. I wanted to be in a mock like NikkiSix said, to see what kind of team I can assemble. Being a part of the mock is the only way to truly see this, in my opinion.

I suppose I could have not let guys slip to see where they were drafted, but I also didn't eliminate them from my board entirely. I had Wade Miley way higher than everyone else, so when he continually fell, I had to take him. That's really what I mean by not taking your targets, I don't want to jump the gun on a guy if I could get him much later, so I pass on him and see if he will slide. If it were a true league, I may not have led Miley slide, but now because of passing on him the first time in the mock, I get the sense that I have him ranked high and can get him later than I originally thought.

As for people taking wild risks:

Goldschmidt 3.4
Harper 3.5
Jennings 4.6
Rizzo 5.5
Marte 9.1

Those are definitely risky picks, and I have to say that I do not see Goldschmidt going #32 overall in any drafts. I think Wingman could have taken another player and gotten Goldschmidt at #53, or he should at least have passed on Goldy to see if he could wait that long.

Anyways, sorry if there was a misunderstanding or you guys still hate the way I'm doing this mock, and thanks for letting me know about it. And I'm going to bid up everyone in the mock auction Saturday, I've been watching too much Storage Wars.


What's your projections on Goldschmidt?
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Re: Draft commentary

Postby rjforlife » Fri Feb 08, 2013 6:20 am

.277 AVG, 23 HR, 88 RBI, 85 Runs, 14 SB. Those numbers are pretty nice across the board but not spectacular. Projections for Billy Butler, taken 7 picks later, I have
.311 AVG, 28 HR, 102 RBI, 75 Runs, and 2 SB. Those numbers for Butler are down a shade on everything but runs, and still he crushes Goldy in average, has a clear power edge in HR/RBI, loses a bit in runs and 10 or so SB. All told I have Butler slightly ahead of Goldy. Those are just my projections so they really mean nothing, I just think it was a risky pick taking him there. To be honest, I'm conservative with Goldy projections and I think you could end up with a great pick there, I just think you might have been able to wait a round to take him.
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Re: Draft commentary

Postby NikkiSixx » Fri Feb 08, 2013 10:59 am

I'll agree that it isn't ideal to take Goldschmidt in early round 3, but he for sure wouldn't have made it back to him on late round 4 in a 14 team league. Sometimes you have to reach for the guys you want. I personally think Goldschmidt will be more like 30/10 than 20/20. For most of his career he should be a 30 home run guy with a few steals. I don't buy into him as a legitimate base stealer. Even Adam Dunn stole 19 bases in a season during his younger years.... I'll just need to see another season of him stealing 15+ before I draft him expecting 15-20 steals. This year I'm expecting 10 steals from Goldschmidt if that, but I do think he will hit .290, 30 HR, 90+ RBI. So he is still a target of mine.
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