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Draft commentary

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Re: Draft commentary

Postby EL BURRO » Thu Jan 31, 2013 2:49 am

fangraphs has all of Bill James projections, check there. they're also free

i make my own projections, but don't want to seem overly biased based on my roster - so I'll defer to a known baseball mind like Bill James. I'm a bit more bullish on a few of my guys, but think posting projections like Bill's can only help us in this type of mock...
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Re: Draft commentary

Postby Izenhart » Thu Jan 31, 2013 3:01 am

Thanks. gonna go see if Bill likes my picks so far ;-D
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Re: Draft commentary

Postby rotoquest » Thu Jan 31, 2013 7:46 am

EL BURRO wrote:fangraphs has all of Bill James projections, check there. they're also free

I make my own projections, but don't want to seem overly biased based on my roster - so I'll defer to a known baseball mind like Bill James. I'm a bit more bullish on a few of my guys, but think posting projections like Bill's can only help us in this type of mock...


I’m having a little trouble trusting those projections at fangraphs. I also do my own projections because it seems all projections are deluded by some kind of bias, and if I’m going to be deluded, it’s going to come from my own numbers. For instance, look at the Harper, Goldschmidt, Hosmer, and Granderson Fangraph projections. (In this order: HR, RUNS, RBI, SB, AVG.)

Bryce Harper 29 97 102 23 0.285
Paul Goldschmidt 29 95 108 15 0.284
Curtis Granderson 36 88 99 13 0.247
Eric Hosmer 22 88 94 15 0.279

So Goldschmidt is going to get 9 more HR and 26 more RBI’s this year in a lineup that is going to be weaker? Moreover, Harper is suppose to hit 7 more HR and 46 more RBI’s. Projections like these feed the hype machine, and now harper is a top 10 hitter in all of mlb even though he has no history in mlb of ever accomplishing these numbers before. But then Granderson who has over the last two years in yankee stadium averaged 119 runs, 42 homeruns, 112 rbi’s, and 17 SB’s is suppose to drop significantly in all those stats. What is that based on?

I’d rather base my projections on the reality of what has been proven to have happened in the past, rather than on the supposition of what could happen in the future with no firm basis. Be careful when looking at projections.
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Re: Draft commentary

Postby Izenhart » Thu Jan 31, 2013 10:31 am

rotoquest wrote:Bryce Harper 29 97 102 23 0.285
Paul Goldschmidt 29 95 108 15 0.284
Curtis Granderson 36 88 99 13 0.247
Eric Hosmer 22 88 94 15 0.279

So Goldschmidt is going to get 9 more HR and 26 more RBI’s this year in a lineup that is going to be weaker? Moreover, Harper is suppose to hit 7 more HR and 46 more RBI’s. Projections like these feed the hype machine, and now harper is a top 10 hitter in all of mlb even though he has no history in mlb of ever accomplishing these numbers before. But then Granderson who has over the last two years in yankee stadium averaged 119 runs, 42 homeruns, 112 rbi’s, and 17 SB’s is suppose to drop significantly in all those stats. What is that based on?

I’d rather base my projections on the reality of what has been proven to have happened in the past, rather than on the supposition of what could happen in the future with no firm basis. Be careful when looking at projections.


I'd assume it's batting position, Harper should bat from the 3 hole this year in a lineup that will have two high OBP hitters in front of him, Granderson while batting #2 in the order two and threee years ago will now see most of his time in the 5 slot, meaning less AB's, less runs and probably less HRs as he is no spring chicken. I can;t argue with the Hosmer projections although for him to hit .280 he will have to figure out the shift which he has yet to do, and Goldschmidt adjusted to the league and did better in the second half than the first half - which leads people to project him to improve.

I do my own projections too and always draft based on them. It's more fun and it's worked out fine in the past so I trust myself more than anyone else - but it's always fun to look at what someone else thinks, and if their opinions differ greatly from yours its fun to figure out why and argue the point. I haven't looked over any projections yet but after looking at what James projects my picks out to be, they are similar numbers to what I project maybe slightly less than I'm hoping for, which is fine with me.
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Re: Draft commentary

Postby GiantsFan14 » Thu Jan 31, 2013 12:41 pm

oops. i swear i checked last night and didn't see him.
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Re: Draft commentary

Postby EL BURRO » Thu Jan 31, 2013 12:56 pm

I tend to agree with both of you. On one hand, I don't use Bill James as bible, but more as a guideline. I like to figure out his logic and why the projections are what they are. When I look at what Rotoquest breakdown of those 4 individual guys, I agree 100% with his take. In fact, I think Goldie is a bit over-rated for my blood this year. I can't see owning him at that price, nor can I see where he's going to produce #s like that from with the likes of Aaron Hill and Miguel Montero around him in the order. That's not really a slight on them, but more laced with the reality of no Upton. Bryce Harper may take that much of a step forward - regardless wether the data supports it or not. We are talking about the most hyped 19 year old since Ken Griffey Jr., plus the line-up is legit, the park plays well offensively and I can see him posting 2nd round value, which those #s seemingly equate to.

Moreover, the purposes of this mock is suppose to be educational for all of us, especially when you get 14 guys into an imaginary room and "draft" a deep league 2 months before season starts. It's intent is to see strategy, mindset and how your opponent's view various players before our real 'fake' drafts. I do think its good to have a set of projections everyone can pull from (for better or worse) just to see the make-up of your imaginary digital players stats. We all know that every set of projections is different, seen thru a biased lens. I get that. But, for our purposes, I'm ok posting Bill James take. You dont' have to agree with them (as I don't entirely either), but I think its helpful for the exercise.
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Re: Draft commentary

Postby TheRock » Thu Jan 31, 2013 1:01 pm

Izencat wrote:137 - 10.11 wingman3130 - Jeff Scrabblepointszdzja, SP, CHC


:-D
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Draft commentary

Postby wingman3110 » Thu Jan 31, 2013 1:12 pm

EL BURRO wrote:I tend to agree with both of you. On one hand, I don't use Bill James as bible, but more as a guideline. I like to figure out his logic and why the projections are what they are. When I look at what Rotoquest breakdown of those 4 individual guys, I agree 100% with his take. In fact, I think Goldie is a bit over-rated for my blood this year. I can't see owning him at that price, nor can I see where he's going to produce #s like that from with the likes of Aaron Hill and Miguel Montero around him in the order. That's not really a slight on them, but more laced with the reality of no Upton. Bryce Harper may take that much of a step forward - regardless wether the data supports it or not. We are talking about the most hyped 19 year old since Ken Griffey Jr., plus the line-up is legit, the park plays well offensively and I can see him posting 2nd round value, which those #s seemingly equate to.

Moreover, the purposes of this mock is suppose to be educational for all of us, especially when you get 14 guys into an imaginary room and "draft" a deep league 2 months before season starts. It's intent is to see strategy, mindset and how your opponent's view various players before our real 'fake' drafts. I do think its good to have a set of projections everyone can pull from (for better or worse) just to see the make-up of your imaginary digital players stats. We all know that every set of projections is different, seen thru a biased lens. I get that. But, for our purposes, I'm ok posting Bill James take. You dont' have to agree with them (as I don't entirely either), but I think its helpful for the exercise.


Basically what I do is take a look at Bill James', Ron Shandlers, and Razzball projections along with my thoughts and that is basically how I develop my projections. Been doing it like this for past 3 years and seems to work well for me.
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Re: Draft commentary

Postby EL BURRO » Thu Jan 31, 2013 1:34 pm

wingman3110 wrote:
EL BURRO wrote:I tend to agree with both of you. On one hand, I don't use Bill James as bible, but more as a guideline. I like to figure out his logic and why the projections are what they are. When I look at what Rotoquest breakdown of those 4 individual guys, I agree 100% with his take. In fact, I think Goldie is a bit over-rated for my blood this year. I can't see owning him at that price, nor can I see where he's going to produce #s like that from with the likes of Aaron Hill and Miguel Montero around him in the order. That's not really a slight on them, but more laced with the reality of no Upton. Bryce Harper may take that much of a step forward - regardless wether the data supports it or not. We are talking about the most hyped 19 year old since Ken Griffey Jr., plus the line-up is legit, the park plays well offensively and I can see him posting 2nd round value, which those #s seemingly equate to.

Moreover, the purposes of this mock is suppose to be educational for all of us, especially when you get 14 guys into an imaginary room and "draft" a deep league 2 months before season starts. It's intent is to see strategy, mindset and how your opponent's view various players before our real 'fake' drafts. I do think its good to have a set of projections everyone can pull from (for better or worse) just to see the make-up of your imaginary digital players stats. We all know that every set of projections is different, seen thru a biased lens. I get that. But, for our purposes, I'm ok posting Bill James take. You dont' have to agree with them (as I don't entirely either), but I think its helpful for the exercise.


Basically what I do is take a look at Bill James', Ron Shandlers, and Razzball projections along with my thoughts and that is basically how I develop my projections. Been doing it like this for past 3 years and seems to work well for me.


I think that's fine and very prudent. I just think you just need to understand their particular nuances. Take Grey for example at Razzball, I love the way he ranks guys and his projections are usually pretty spot on. However, he's allergic to taking SP early. One common thread we actually share -- he also believes in taking power pretty early and often. And he also has a large Mike Stanton tattoo on his back. So, if taking a SP early is your thing and you are partial to building your squad that way, I'd probably steer clear or at least understand that bats are his huckleberry. He suggests (and I agree) that their is a lot of SP depth, and you do not need to build your squad around aces - but rather a series of a few "high k" guys sprinkled throughout the middle/ latter rounds of the draft.

Largely, I think it's increasingly important to develop your own set of rankings and tiers with guys you like and draft them. Too often, people draft guys they don't like for whatever reason (we'll call them hunches) and go with some set of stat projections which combat their hunch only to see their "gut preferred pick" outshine their actual selection. Not sure what to call that except trust your instincts. For me, this is why i tend to draft the 3-5 year player, the "post-hype" guys at value as opposed to the rookie or the aging vet. That's just me -- (and Im tangental), but feel that's important to share.
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Draft commentary

Postby wingman3110 » Thu Jan 31, 2013 1:52 pm

Agreed. If I have the #3 pick overall I'm hoping Trout goes 1 or 2 overall just because he doesn't have the track record like Braun or Cabrera yet. Normally for rounds 1-4 I want guys that have proven over the last couple seasons or more.

Now that's not to say thatTrout cant out perform his numbers from last year but in just more of the cautious type early on.
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