by askretzinger » Fri Feb 22, 2013 4:30 pm
I like Elvis Andrus if you have some big bats in your lineup to compliment him. He will never hit for power, so drafting him as a 5 tool SS is probably a wasteful dream. Sporting News Magazine projected Andrus numbers to be fairly identical to Jose Reyes with the only difference being Reyes is projected at 7 more SB. I think there is only 2 stand out 20/20 Shortstops in MLB at the time (Hanley Ramirez, Starlin Castro....Tulo doesn't have the steals but is more of a 25/10 guy) I would put Andrus in the top half of the second tier at short but not in the elite. However, I would point out that Alcides Escobar had better numbers across the board including 15 more steals than Andrus in 2012.
Here's some stat projection's I've seen on Andrus:
Sporting News: 615 AB, 97 R, 4 HR, 60 RBI, 33 SB, .289
Fan Graphs Steamer: 698 AB, 87 R, 6 HR, 56 RBI, 19 SB, .279
Fan Graphs Bill James: 674 AB, 94 R, 5 HR, 59 RBI, 29 SB, .281
Fan Graphs Oliver: 659 AB, 82 R, 5 HR, 52 RBI, 29 SB, .284
I will also point out that last year was the first year he hit over .280 in the majors
Andrus is one of the 5 SS I am targeting in my keeper draft but I'm keeping 5 power hitters (Votto, Braun, Hamilton, A. Gonzalez, J. Bruce) and need the production on the base paths. I would project Andrus to be somewhere in the ballpark of:
95 R, 5 HR, 61 RBI, 24 SB, .275