he used to be one of the top elite pitchers in baseball. then in 2012, ugly. how far can he bounce back in 2012? or can he bounce back period? he wasn't as bad in the 2nd half (3.83/1.34) compared to a brutal 1st half (6.42/1.58). overall he was 10-15, 5.18 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 190 K in 186 IP.
his BABIP wasn't that off compared to his career. 2012 he had .309 BABIP compared to career .295 BABIP. his LOB was fairly low at 67.8%, compared to his career of 74.6%.
his walks have gone up each season since 2009. 2009- 2.72 2010- 3.22 2011- 3.57 2012- 4.35
Bill James for 2012 has him at 13-9, 3.47 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 211 K in 197 IP. I think that seems too good after what he did in 2012. I think he is closer to 4+ ERA. expectations?
I think this is going to be one of the most interesting topics discussed once people really start focusing on fantasy baseball.
I don't think Bill James predictions are that far off. The ERA might be a little low, but the WHIP K's and Wins seem about where I would project them. The K's were there last year even when he was brutal so I am not too concerned about that.
I think north of 3.5 ERA but not too far, but with Ks near 200 and low-to-mid double digit wins. I'd be very happy with 1.30 WHIP.
He could be much better if 2012 really was an aberration, but I'd pay for the stats above wherever thats puts him, but definitely choose him over others in that same stat range since he has the potential upside for much better.
Don't think he'll ever be an elite SP again. I believed when he first come up that he could be very good for a few years, until he gets around age 30. Then his stuff is going to go backward and he will be forced to become a reliever. I'm still sticking with that prediction.
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Since I just drafted him I'll say what I was thinking - firstly his ADP is around 125. If his ERA is 5 again he will be a huge bust no doubt. To go where he's going he would need comparable stats to Peavy, with more K's and a higher WHIP. So if he finishes around (My prediction) 3.80era, 13w, 200k, 1.30whip he will about earn his value. I picked him because I think the 1st half of last year is the abberation and the second half stats are more the norm. So he feels like a safe bet here with the added bonus that his ceiling is higher than that of any SP left. He is just 1 year removed from a 2.74era, 1.21whip, 13w and 220k. If he does go bad my team strength at the time of his pick is pitching, and he is my 4th starter. If I was staring at him and only had 1 starter I probably would have gone a safer route and picked someone else.
Team Izzy C Mauer 1 E5 2 Altuve 3 ARam S Cabrera CI LaRoche MI Drew O Melky, Cuddyer, Morse, Hunter, McClouth U Ortiz SP Lee, Fister, Miller, Fernandez, Lackey, RP Chapman Frieri Grilli Gregrsn Bnch 1 Hart 3 Mdlbrk 3 Rendon O Eaton P Lohse Nolasco Santana
Have any of you guys actually seen him pitch this ST?? I have watched his first two starts after his finger blister thingy. His velo was consistently around 92-93 that 1 mph away from where he was around his elite days. Last year he was around 90 when he was getting crushed. And that's in his first two starts of ST. His velo will rise when he actually gets his arm stronger, he had to rest his hand to get his blister problem to go away. IDK if any of u guys no real baseball, but jus a couple miles lost on a FB, when ur a FB/CH pitcher kills you. All of a sudden your FB isn't as fast so they can sit on ur out pitch and react to ur FB. Plus if you've ever talked to a mlbier, they all say the dif between 90 to 95 is insane. 90 looks like a CH, while 95 is jus a blur. Being he lost that much on his FB last yr, it's no wonder why his #'s were what they were. Boche has said many times this ST, he is as hungry as he's ever seen him. He came into this ST with a personal vengeance to prove all who think the "freak" show is over, wrong. Hence the haircut, all business now.. I was sold when I saw how on he was that early in ST and his velo is climbing back to norm. He has never been a great right out of the gates guy, so now that he is locked in already. Could be scary for those who doubted him, he's been doubted all his life and been proving peeps wrong all the time. I put 20 bucks on him in an auction draft, when his value was 14. That's how confident I am he is back and will get back to elite status or at least last yr to be a bit of a fluke. Gotta watch some baseball sometimes and stop looking at all those #'s guys...