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Post Hype Sleepers

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Re: Post Hype Sleepers

Postby OaktownSteve » Mon Mar 04, 2013 3:11 pm

AHF wrote:
OaktownSteve wrote:Brandon Belt


This was the name I was going to raise. How do the Giants fans on here feel about him for 2013? I expected much more out of him last year (something like .280, 20 HRs, and useful RBI/R numbers). I had high hopes for him given his good eye and great numbers in the minor leagues. I'll still consider a $1 flyer on him in my keeper league if I need a spot to fill but won't target him like I did last season.


There isn't a lot of evidence that the power is forthcoming, especially as a left-hander in ATT. But there's gap to gap with a possibility of 15-20 bags coming from a corner infield spot. Plus he'll likely get outfield eligibility. He's an interesting NL Only play with mixed league value if he hits .280+ and steals bases.
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Re: Post Hype Sleepers

Postby Fade2White12 » Mon Mar 04, 2013 3:32 pm

OaktownSteve wrote:
AHF wrote:
OaktownSteve wrote:Brandon Belt


This was the name I was going to raise. How do the Giants fans on here feel about him for 2013? I expected much more out of him last year (something like .280, 20 HRs, and useful RBI/R numbers). I had high hopes for him given his good eye and great numbers in the minor leagues. I'll still consider a $1 flyer on him in my keeper league if I need a spot to fill but won't target him like I did last season.


There isn't a lot of evidence that the power is forthcoming, especially as a left-hander in ATT. But there's gap to gap with a possibility of 15-20 bags coming from a corner infield spot. Plus he'll likely get outfield eligibility. He's an interesting NL Only play with mixed league value if he hits .280+ and steals bases.


I think .280 may be a just tad optimistic considering his K rate (23.9% MLB and 22.7% AAA), but I essentially agree with everything you said. He's likely never hitting more than in the low 20s of HRs while playing for SF, but his OBP skills and SB numbers are absolutely legitimate.

Where he hits in the lineup and how often he plays when Posey shifts to 1B will have a huge impact on his value. He's projected to hit 6th, which will likely end up wasting his plus OBP skills, hitting in front of the likes of Gregor Blanco. On days Posey plays 1B, is SF going to routinely put him in LF? Considering Belt isn't all that great defensively, while that's maybe Blanco's only positive attribute, it's hard to know exactly what roster they'll go with on those days.

If he gets a full 550-600 PAs, I think he could end up with a line like .274, 18 HR, 155 R/RBI, 12 SB. Definitely not bad for a CI with upside.
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Re: Post Hype Sleepers

Postby OaktownSteve » Wed Mar 06, 2013 1:06 am

I got a good one for y'all. Chisenhall. There's not a lot in his track record that pops right out at you, but he's only 24 and he's had a fair amount of MLB ABs. Looking for reasons for optimism in his minor league numbers I see that from 2009-2011 at AA and AAA he averaged around 8.5% BBs and 15% Ks which is a pretty good ratio. The last couple years bouncing between the Indians and AAA his walk rate took a dive, but last year it came back up to 5.3%, still not great but better. If there's another bump in the walk rate and the ks come down, his counters will go up.

Plus 3rd base is a tricky position to manage in fantasy, so he makes a good late round flier.

Also, I think he's probably happy to know the job is his. Makes a big difference in the confidence level.

Having a nice spring (FWIW...which is not much).
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Re: Post Hype Sleepers

Postby Ender » Wed Mar 06, 2013 1:42 am

Cameron Maybin will be a top 40 OF this year, he will be close to Austin Jackson in value who is going 150 picks before him (and like 60 picks too early to be honest).
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Re: Post Hype Sleepers

Postby AussieDodger » Wed Mar 06, 2013 2:06 am

Sounds like Domonic Brown is finally healthy, and has had a change in technique:

http://rotowire.com/baseball/player.htm?id=10292#newsoutlooks

Brown credits a tip from assistant hitting coach Wally Joyner for his hot start this spring, CSNPhilly.com reports. “It seemed like God maybe sent an angel down toward me,” Brown said of Joyner. “He showed me a little something then, boom, it clicked and I’ve been working hard every day.”


Dom has a 1.283 OPS so far in spring training, and his last HR was against a LHP.

One of those guys who failed a couple of times and decided to learn something new.....and his MDP is 297? Yes please.
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Re: Post Hype Sleepers

Postby Ender » Wed Mar 06, 2013 2:09 am

Brown still looks lost against breaking stuff and early spring training is still all about the fastball. I'm not convinced at all he plays every day. He is probably draft-able but I'm not targeting him early.
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Re: Post Hype Sleepers

Postby GiantsFan14 » Wed Mar 06, 2013 2:20 am

Belt is interesting this year. If Bochy is serious about giving him the playing time in first and putting him in left when Buster plays 1st, he could turn out to be a pretty solid sleeper. I think playing time is the issue. He had a very solid 2nd half last year which he attributed to changing his swing a bit to play better in AT&T. Not sure how much truth there is to that, but he did start hitting a lot more line drives in the second half. His OBP and defense will always mean he's a much better real life player than fantasy player, but he has the pop to turn into a 20-25 HR guy over time and has good base-running skills which could land him 10-15 SB as well. Could provide decent value where he's being drafted this year if he gets to play full time.

Also he's tearing it up so far in ST. Hitting .480/.480/.960 with 3 HR. Small sample obv, but I believe there is a correlation between spring training slugging and regular season breakouts. He's also getting close to the magical 800 major league PA mark. Really though, the only reason a good spring training matters is because Bochy thinks it matters and it could lead to him playing everyday.
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Re: Post Hype Sleepers

Postby jeffmerk » Thu Mar 07, 2013 9:31 am

Ender wrote:Brown still looks lost against breaking stuff and early spring training is still all about the fastball. I'm not convinced at all he plays every day. He is probably draft-able but I'm not targeting him early.

Hell play every day until Delmon Young is healthy so hell have a reasonable chance to prove himself.
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Re: Post Hype Sleepers

Postby bigh0rt » Thu Mar 07, 2013 12:55 pm

I'm giving Jhoulys Chacin a late look this year. Just picked him up with the last spot on my squad in a FA Draft for free, after our auction concluded, in my 14-teamer. His career 3.05 Road ERA is enough for me to look at him as a platoon candidate (we have weekly lineups). If you start him on the Road, and a few Home spots against light hitting opponents, he could give you a nice return for what he'll cost you (MDP of 448).
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