Ian Kennedy

[americanleagueroto]

We all knew his 2011 season wasn't going to be repeated, but his numbers took a dive this year. His underlying numbers (K/9 & BB/9) actually stayed perfectly inline with his 2011 season, it was the long ball that gave him fits (1.21 HR/9)

It's interesting when you look at his pitch selection he basically stopped using his slider in 2012 - 0.7% as compared to 2.8% in 2011. While his slider wasn't very effective in 2011 it was another pitch the hitter had to think about, which I believe had a huge effect on his fastball which was very good last year. In 2012, while his slider was "more effective" this year the little he threw it, his fastball effectiveness crashed hard. Again, I believe his fastball is more hittable when hitters don't have to worry about the slider coming.

If he can normalize the homers a little a 3.65-3.75 ERA should be obtainable next year. I love pitchers that don't walk an insane number of hitters and Kennedy fits the bill. His K rate should keep him at the 180+ mark, making him a solid buy that shouldn't cost an arm and a leg.

2013 Projection:
12W, 187K, 3.69, 1.21

Dave

[Element]

How many of those 'lost' sliders were actually cutters though? His cutter percentage is up about the same percentage that the slider is down (according to Fangraphs).

He's always going to be someone that gets hampered by the long ball ... especially in that park. I like him as a comeback player also, to some degree. He has a great changeup & should be someone to sport a decent WHIP, but I'm still thinking ERA in the upper 3's. That's not bad, but I would be more apt to gamble on someone with better pure stuff at that point.