He is one of my favorite targets this year. However, the hype train might make him a very risky purchase if you are one those people that like to wait until the end of March to do your draft. By that time, there is a very good chance that he will be the #4 1B off the board behind Votto, Pujols, and Fielder. While I do believe he will be a top 4 1B by the end of the year, taking him there leaves no little room for profit and a big risk of overpaying if he doesn't pan out.
Even though I am somewhat cautiously optimistic, I have big hopes for him in a very solid D-Backs lineup (with J-Up still in town) in a hitter-friendly park. After doing a lot of research on him last year, and seeing his statistical growth in the BB/SO area, I am pretty confident that he is the next Votto. I would not be surprised to see a big 95-30-100-15-.285, or better, type year. I love loading up on guys that can produce in all 5 cats.