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Josh Hamilton goes to LA for 5 years

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Re: Josh Hamilton goes to LA for 5 years

Postby GiantsFan14 » Sat Dec 15, 2012 2:06 am

Urban Cohorts wrote:
GiantsFan14 wrote:
Urban Cohorts wrote:
Oh I would too, but having Trout for an extra month instead of Peter Bourjos is a big upgrade.


how is it an upgrade if he has a worse season?


Check out Bourjos' numbers as a starter last April/early May. Even if Trout regresses somewhat, the improvement in April is enough to come close to a breaking even IMO.


What Bourjos did at the beginning of the year is irrelevant as long as he didn't put up negative value (which he didn't).

You just said that you'd take the under on Trout having a better season next year even with the extra games played. If he does not put up more than 10 WAR over the course of the season it's a downgrade. It's not a knock against Trout, it's just incredibly hard to have a season as good as he had last year.
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Re: Josh Hamilton goes to LA for 5 years

Postby BitterDodgerFan » Sat Dec 15, 2012 3:25 am

correction, anaheim is not LA
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Re: Josh Hamilton goes to LA for 5 years

Postby bayside » Tue Dec 18, 2012 2:58 am

kab21 wrote:
mweir145 wrote:Yeah, I figured that one was coming. Do you have some other, better measure of value for last year than both rWAR and fWAR that tells you that Hamilton was the better player in 2012? Or is it simply the fact that Hamilton is the bigger name and current talent, so he intuitively "should" be more valuable?


Better analysis tool than WAR = a brain that doesn't shut off simply because an equation spits out a magic number


"Magic number" or not, the fact is that Hunter had almost the same offensive impact as Hamilton last year. Thats based on real world numbers. And by nearly all accounts he was far superior defensively as well. So what exactly are you disagreeing with?

Im pretty sure nobody is arguing that Hunter is more talented btw.
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Re: Josh Hamilton goes to LA for 5 years

Postby MaudDib » Tue Dec 18, 2012 10:50 am

bayside wrote:
kab21 wrote:
mweir145 wrote:Yeah, I figured that one was coming. Do you have some other, better measure of value for last year than both rWAR and fWAR that tells you that Hamilton was the better player in 2012? Or is it simply the fact that Hamilton is the bigger name and current talent, so he intuitively "should" be more valuable?


Better analysis tool than WAR = a brain that doesn't shut off simply because an equation spits out a magic number


"Magic number" or not, the fact is that Hunter had almost the same offensive impact as Hamilton last year. Thats based on real world numbers. And by nearly all accounts he was far superior defensively as well. So what exactly are you disagreeing with?

Im pretty sure nobody is arguing that Hunter is more talented btw.


Are we really looking at Torii Hunters season just from last year and forgetting what he was before that. Yes Hunter had a very nice year with a 5+ WAR season. Something he has never done before and at the age of 37 is extremely unlikely to repeat. Last three season were a 3.9, 3.7 and a 2.6. In other words he was trending down not up. Add in that his BB% was down, K% was up (3rd year of an increase) and his BA was above .300 for the first time in his career.

Hamilton will likely be a 4+ WAR player next year even if he gets hurt. If he stays healthy all year then you can be reasonably assured that he will get close or surpass 5 WAR.

Can't really see an argument that makes Hunter the better player. For one year, yes he was better but why would you look at only one year?
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Re: Josh Hamilton goes to LA for 5 years

Postby GiantsFan14 » Tue Dec 18, 2012 1:54 pm

Nobody is arguing that Hunter is the better player going forward. Only that the Angels spent a lot of money and really didn't get any better than they were last year with this signing. The drop off in talent between Hamilton and hunter probably didn't warrant the difference in money and years.
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Re: Josh Hamilton goes to LA for 5 years

Postby Skin Blues » Tue Dec 18, 2012 2:01 pm

MaudDib wrote:
bayside wrote:
kab21 wrote:
Better analysis tool than WAR = a brain that doesn't shut off simply because an equation spits out a magic number


"Magic number" or not, the fact is that Hunter had almost the same offensive impact as Hamilton last year. Thats based on real world numbers. And by nearly all accounts he was far superior defensively as well. So what exactly are you disagreeing with?

Im pretty sure nobody is arguing that Hunter is more talented btw.


Are we really looking at Torii Hunters season just from last year and forgetting what he was before that. Yes Hunter had a very nice year with a 5+ WAR season. Something he has never done before and at the age of 37 is extremely unlikely to repeat. Last three season were a 3.9, 3.7 and a 2.6. In other words he was trending down not up. Add in that his BB% was down, K% was up (3rd year of an increase) and his BA was above .300 for the first time in his career.

Hamilton will likely be a 4+ WAR player next year even if he gets hurt. If he stays healthy all year then you can be reasonably assured that he will get close or surpass 5 WAR.

Can't really see an argument that makes Hunter the better player. For one year, yes he was better but why would you look at only one year?

I think you're missing the point. Nobody is saying Hunter will be better than Hamilton this year (although he could be, quite easily). They're saying Hunter was better last season. And he was, and it's fairly indisputable. Hamilton hit a ton of HR, but was barely better with the bat, and Hunter was better at pretty much everything else. The point of all this is to say that the Angels aren't improving over last year's team because they're only replacing a huge season by their RF with another player that will likely put up similar value in 2013.
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Re: Josh Hamilton goes to LA for 5 years

Postby bayside » Tue Dec 18, 2012 3:13 pm

MaudDib wrote:Are we really looking at Torii Hunters season just from last year and forgetting what he was before that.

bayside wrote:Im pretty sure nobody is arguing that Hunter is more talented btw.


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Re: Josh Hamilton goes to LA for 5 years

Postby MaudDib » Tue Dec 18, 2012 3:57 pm

Skin Blues wrote:
MaudDib wrote:
bayside wrote:
"Magic number" or not, the fact is that Hunter had almost the same offensive impact as Hamilton last year. Thats based on real world numbers. And by nearly all accounts he was far superior defensively as well. So what exactly are you disagreeing with?

Im pretty sure nobody is arguing that Hunter is more talented btw.


Are we really looking at Torii Hunters season just from last year and forgetting what he was before that. Yes Hunter had a very nice year with a 5+ WAR season. Something he has never done before and at the age of 37 is extremely unlikely to repeat. Last three season were a 3.9, 3.7 and a 2.6. In other words he was trending down not up. Add in that his BB% was down, K% was up (3rd year of an increase) and his BA was above .300 for the first time in his career.

Hamilton will likely be a 4+ WAR player next year even if he gets hurt. If he stays healthy all year then you can be reasonably assured that he will get close or surpass 5 WAR.

Can't really see an argument that makes Hunter the better player. For one year, yes he was better but why would you look at only one year?

I think you're missing the point. Nobody is saying Hunter will be better than Hamilton this year (although he could be, quite easily). They're saying Hunter was better last season. And he was, and it's fairly indisputable. Hamilton hit a ton of HR, but was barely better with the bat, and Hunter was better at pretty much everything else. The point of all this is to say that the Angels aren't improving over last year's team because they're only replacing a huge season by their RF with another player that will likely put up similar value in 2013.


And you are missing my point. Hunter had a career year at age 37. Why are you then automatically assuming that he will reproduce something that he has never done before in 2013. So yes for one year he was better than Hamilton but that doesn't mean that Hunter will continue to be better than Hamilton going forward. It would be great if you could take one career year and extrapolate it out for many years, that is just not how it works and we all know that. Hunter is well into an age group that where it is nothing but down hill. Hamilton isn't quite into that age group yet. While he has many issues as well, he is a better bet to put up a better season than Hunter will be. Again Hunter had ONE year with a 5+ WAR and before last year he hadn't been above 4 WAR since 2002 with the Twins.

So Hamilton isn't replacing a similar valued player in 2013. He is replacing a guy who had a career year in 2012 but has been just OK but not great for quite a while. Which is an improvement for the Angels future because that is all that really matters to them in this deal.
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Re: Josh Hamilton goes to LA for 5 years

Postby MaudDib » Tue Dec 18, 2012 4:04 pm

GiantsFan14 wrote:Nobody is arguing that Hunter is the better player going forward. Only that the Angels spent a lot of money and really didn't get any better than they were last year with this signing. The drop off in talent between Hamilton and hunter probably didn't warrant the difference in money and years.

Only if you look at last years numbers and assume that Hunter can continue to be that kind of player at age 37. I am guessing that since Hunter has never had a season like he had last year that the Angels weren't going to take that gamble. Odds are a lot better that Hunter becomes the guy he was which is a 3 WAR player (2005-2011 average). Hamilton has had two years under a 4 WAR, one with the Reds in 2007 where he only played 90 games and the other was in 2009 where he only played 89 games. In 2007 he might have gotten over 4 if he played the full year. In 2009 he wouldn't have because of all the injuries.

The Angels are taking a gamble that Hamilton will be able to stay healthy and earn this kind of money but Hunter can not replaced what Hamilton brings to this team.
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Re: Josh Hamilton goes to LA for 5 years

Postby J35J » Tue Dec 18, 2012 4:16 pm

I think everyone is missing everyones point....or arguing two different things.


1) Having Hamilton this year does not make them a better team than they were last year because he's likely to be as productive as what Hunter was last year...so to expect improvement over last years win total because of having Hamilton this year is wrong.

2) The other side of that coin is that Hunter is likely to regress down closer to a 2 WAR player than remain a 5 WAR player, while Hamilton should stay at 4-5 WAR level for another year or two. This means that the team is "likely" better THIS year having Hamilton than hoping a 37 year old player can remain a 5 WAR player.


So to sum up the arguements...the team did not improve over LAST year because of now having Hamilton, but they might have improved THIS year because of the potential decline of Hunter and potential ability of Hamilton staying the same or even improving(due to a terrible defensive rating)...but this is all projection/prediction...so we'll see at the end of the year how it turns out.
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