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Josh Hamilton goes to LA for 5 years

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Re: Josh Hamilton goes to LA for 5 years

Postby mweir145 » Fri Dec 14, 2012 7:31 pm

kab21 wrote:
mweir145 wrote:Yeah, I figured that one was coming. Do you have some other, better measure of value for last year than both rWAR and fWAR that tells you that Hamilton was the better player in 2012? Or is it simply the fact that Hamilton is the bigger name and current talent, so he intuitively "should" be more valuable?


Better analysis tool than WAR = a brain that doesn't shut off simply because an equation spits out a magic number


Ah, so it's "the fact that Hamilton is the bigger name and current talent, so he intuitively 'should' be more valuable," or in other words, exactly nothing. As I figured.

Unfortunately, that is no accurate way to evaluate players. Looking at a combination of offense, defense, and baserunning is better.
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Re: Josh Hamilton goes to LA for 5 years

Postby GiantsFan14 » Fri Dec 14, 2012 8:05 pm

kab21 wrote:
mweir145 wrote:Yeah, I figured that one was coming. Do you have some other, better measure of value for last year than both rWAR and fWAR that tells you that Hamilton was the better player in 2012? Or is it simply the fact that Hamilton is the bigger name and current talent, so he intuitively "should" be more valuable?


Better analysis tool than WAR = a brain that doesn't shut off simply because an equation spits out a magic number


So he's wrong because you think he's wrong?
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Re: Josh Hamilton goes to LA for 5 years

Postby Izenhart » Fri Dec 14, 2012 8:56 pm

this smells very much like sabermetrics vs scouts.

War may not be a perfect tool for real evaluation, but it's the best one I can make sense of. It puts values on the importance of the player's talent in which he saves runs on defense and creates runs on offense. Maybe the way it's weighted or judged isn't quite perfect but I do believe it is the best mathematical way we have when determining who is worth what. Real teams understand this, but they end up overpaying for the same reasons we will all be drafting Josh Hamilton ahead of Torii Hunter every year - raw talent and potential.
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Re: Josh Hamilton goes to LA for 5 years

Postby AussieDodger » Fri Dec 14, 2012 11:05 pm

kab21 wrote:
AussieDodger wrote:
bigh0rt wrote:If I was a recovering drug addict, Los Angeles would be firmly resting atop the places I want to be. How long does it take for a guy to put $125 million up his nose and in his veins?


Yep this was my first reaction.

If I had to risk $100mil on a player, it wouldn't be Josh Hamilton. It might not look like it at the moment (if you're blinded by all the extra-base hits), but this contract has the whiff of Zito/Vernon Wells to me. Lucky it's only 5 years.


I'm okay being blinded by all of those HR's.

Zito and Wells were never among the best players in the game and salary inflation has occurred since they signed contracts. The reason not to like this contract is that he's a former drug addict, he's injury prone and he'll be 37 when the contract is finished.


Not just that, the reason I don't like the contract is some of his skills in 2012 were not even above-average.
0.37 BB/K is pretty bad for a so-called "awesome" hitter, and Hamilton does have a 0.30 season under his belt as well.
He was a complete train wreck when they put him in CF (-26 UZR/150), he won't have to play many innings there for the Angels but in LF (which is supposedly the easy OF position) he couldn't even break even (-0.1 UZR/150).

For my $25mil per I want someone a bit more rounded then this. Now if it was $15mil, sure go for it, but paying elite money for someone who isn't currently elite and a HUGE risk.........pass.
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Re: Josh Hamilton goes to LA for 5 years

Postby Urban Cohorts » Fri Dec 14, 2012 11:53 pm

mweir145 wrote:As it stands, the Angels are a worse team than they were last season in a division that they didn't even win. Beyond the hype of this Hamilton move, I'm struggling to understand how that makes them the consensus favorites for the AL West. They could very well win the division, but both the Rangers and A's are also very good teams (and the Rangers, in particular, will make more additions).


How are the Angels a worse team?

They replaced Hunter with Hamilton, which should be a win for 2013. Haren, who was garbage for half a season, is being replaced by Tommy Hanson (a break even at the least). And Ervin Satana, who was garbage for more than half a season, won't be wearing an Angels uniform. The pen should be better with the additions of Madson and Burnett. And lets not forget they will have a full season of Trout and a full season of Pujols not batting .220 with terrible stats across the board.

The only major downgrade they have is trying to replace Greinke for the 13 games he pitched there.

They finished 4 games out of a playoff spot after beginning the season 8-15! This includes losing separate series to the Indians, Twins, and Royals! Goes to show how awful they were when Trout wasn't on the roster and Pujols wasn't hitting. If they had gone .500 in April they would have made the playoffs and potentially won the division.

The Rangers and As are good teams too, but the Rangers lost some big pieces and I won't be buying the As until I see them play at that level for more than one season.
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Re: Josh Hamilton goes to LA for 5 years

Postby GiantsFan14 » Sat Dec 15, 2012 12:17 am

Urban Cohorts wrote:And lets not forget they will have a full season of Trout


I'd take the under on Trout having a better season next year even with the extra games played. It's not easy to put up 10 WAR.
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Re: Josh Hamilton goes to LA for 5 years

Postby mweir145 » Sat Dec 15, 2012 12:39 am

I notice you didn't answer my question about the Jays. If you're using that betting site to claim that the Angels are the favorites in the West, does that mean the Jays are the favorites in the East? I think most people would agree that realistically isn't the case.

Urban Cohorts wrote:They replaced Hunter with Hamilton, which should be a win for 2013.

If it is one at all, it's not much of one. Hunter had a great season in 2012.

Haren, who was garbage for half a season, is being replaced by Tommy Hanson (a break even at the least). And Ervin Satana, who was garbage for more than half a season, won't be wearing an Angels uniform.

Hanson has been bad for two years in a row (and worse than even Haren was during his bad stretch in 2012). That's a downgrade. And Santana seems to have been replaced by Joe Blanton.

And lets not forget they will have a full season of Trout and a full season of Pujols not batting .220 with terrible stats across the board.

As good as he is, it's unlikely that Trout has a 2nd straight historic season in a row and Pujols will be another year older (and his skills/stats have been declining for a few years now).


They finished 4 games out of a playoff spot after beginning the season 8-15! This includes losing separate series to the Indians, Twins, and Royals! Goes to show how awful they were when Trout wasn't on the roster and Pujols wasn't hitting. If they had gone .500 in April they would have made the playoffs and potentially won the division.

The Rangers and As are good teams too, but the Rangers lost some big pieces and I won't be buying the As until I see them play at that level for more than one season.

I'm not saying they're not a very good team or not in the conversation in the AL West. They clearly are. But I don't think they've separated themselves at all from the Rangers and A's based on what they've done this offseason.
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Re: Josh Hamilton goes to LA for 5 years

Postby Urban Cohorts » Sat Dec 15, 2012 1:28 am

GiantsFan14 wrote:I'd take the under on Trout having a better season next year even with the extra games played. It's not easy to put up 10 WAR.


Oh I would too, but having Trout for an extra month instead of Peter Bourjos is a big upgrade.

mweir145 wrote:If it is one at all, it's not much of one. Hunter had a great season in 2012.


Hunter did have a great 2012. And Hamilton fell off during the second half of the season. I still think Hamilton is the better hitter though, especially over the last 3 years. So Josh should be an upgrade. I don't know how much of one or if it is going to be significant. We just have to wait and see. The bottom is that the move doesn't make the Angels any worse in 2013. And neither Hamilton nor Hunter are on the Rangers.

mweir145 wrote:Hanson has been bad for two years in a row (and worse than even Haren was during his bad stretch in 2012). That's a downgrade. And Santana seems to have been replaced by Joe Blanton.


Hanson was pitching quite well in 2011 before he got injured. And in 2012, coming back from injury, he was more successful than Haren for half of the months. Hanson being one year removed from injury while being 6 years younger than Haren gives him the nod in my book. Joe Blanton isn't good, but Santana was awful in 2012. Expecting Blanton to pitch that bad is even a stretch for him. I'd imagine if he was doing that poorly he would end up being replaced. And truth be told, I'm a big fan of Garrett Richards.

mweir145 wrote:As good as he is, it's unlikely that Trout has a 2nd straight historic season in a row and Pujols will be another year older (and his skills/stats have been declining for a few years now).


If Trout plays 80% as good as he did this year than that is a win. Sure, Pujols is declining, but to think he will hit like his did last April would be a big assumption. He turned things around dramatically. Through his whole career he had never hit as badly as he did last April.

mweir145 wrote:I'm not saying they're not a very good team or not in the conversation in the AL West. They clearly are. But I don't think they've separated themselves at all from the Rangers and A's based on what they've done this offseason.


Then I think we are in near agreement. I don't view the Angels as the clear cut best team in the AL West, but I have more faith in them than the Rangers or the As. With the Rangers completely choking away the division and the losses of Hamilton and Dempster, I don't see them being the front runners. And I don't trust the As until they can be competitive for more than a season.

mweir145 wrote:I notice you didn't answer my question about the Jays. If you're using that betting site to claim that the Angels are the favorites in the West, does that mean the Jays are the favorites in the East? I think most people would agree that realistically isn't the case.


I didn't want to derail the topic and start talking about the Jays. I wouldn't call the Jays the favorites, but they are certainly in the conversation. For me, the Orioles fall into the same category as the As- I want to see them be competitive for more than one season before I call them the real deal. The Rays are good, but the loss of Shields bumped them down for me. The Yankees, as much as I hate them, are always in the conversation. And maybe I am biased since I'm a Sox fan, but I think the AL East is still tougher than any other division in baseball.

I wouldn't take those odds on the Jays, but I wouldn't be surprised if they won the division. If Morrow can come back successfully (and pitch consistently well) from injury and if Romero can live up to his talent, then the Jays will win. It all rests on their pitching IMO. The hitting is solid- Bautista will rebound. The rotation could have 4 good #2 guys if they can live up to their talent.
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Re: Josh Hamilton goes to LA for 5 years

Postby GiantsFan14 » Sat Dec 15, 2012 1:39 am

Urban Cohorts wrote:
GiantsFan14 wrote:I'd take the under on Trout having a better season next year even with the extra games played. It's not easy to put up 10 WAR.


Oh I would too, but having Trout for an extra month instead of Peter Bourjos is a big upgrade.


how is it an upgrade if he has a worse season?
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Re: Josh Hamilton goes to LA for 5 years

Postby Urban Cohorts » Sat Dec 15, 2012 1:49 am

GiantsFan14 wrote:
Urban Cohorts wrote:
GiantsFan14 wrote:I'd take the under on Trout having a better season next year even with the extra games played. It's not easy to put up 10 WAR.


Oh I would too, but having Trout for an extra month instead of Peter Bourjos is a big upgrade.


how is it an upgrade if he has a worse season?


Check out Bourjos' numbers as a starter last April/early May. Even if Trout regresses somewhat, the improvement in April is enough to come close to a breaking even IMO.
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