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Josh Hamilton goes to LA for 5 years

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Re: Josh Hamilton goes to LA for 5 years

Postby kab21 » Fri Dec 14, 2012 10:10 am

AussieDodger wrote:
bigh0rt wrote:If I was a recovering drug addict, Los Angeles would be firmly resting atop the places I want to be. How long does it take for a guy to put $125 million up his nose and in his veins?


Yep this was my first reaction.

If I had to risk $100mil on a player, it wouldn't be Josh Hamilton. It might not look like it at the moment (if you're blinded by all the extra-base hits), but this contract has the whiff of Zito/Vernon Wells to me. Lucky it's only 5 years.


I'm okay being blinded by all of those HR's.

Zito and Wells were never among the best players in the game and salary inflation has occurred since they signed contracts. The reason not to like this contract is that he's a former drug addict, he's injury prone and he'll be 37 when the contract is finished. Reasons to like this contract is a lineup of Trout, Hamilton, Pujols, Trumbo, Morales and a few other average hitters. The pitching drops off fast after Weaver and Wilson though.
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Re: Josh Hamilton goes to LA for 5 years

Postby mweir145 » Fri Dec 14, 2012 10:22 am

kab21 wrote:
mweir145 wrote:I would have just signed Swisher rather than overpay for Hamilton, I think. A lot of risk in giving a long-term contract like this.

As for how good this makes the Angels, don't forget that Torri Hunter was more valuable than Hamilton last season. He's basically just going to be replacing that production. Greinke and Haren are also gone now. I'd expect them to be a playoff team, of course, but I'm not sure I'd call them WS favorites or anything.


I don't care what WAR says. This isn't true.

Yeah, I figured that one was coming. Do you have some other, better measure of value for last year than both rWAR and fWAR that tells you that Hamilton was the better player in 2012? Or is it simply the fact that Hamilton is the bigger name and current talent, so he intuitively "should" be more valuable?

Offensively, they weren't nearly as far as apart as their slash lines made it appear due to the difference in ballparks (139 OPS+ for Hamilton vs. 132 OPS+ for Hunter). And Hunter's defense was superb under both UZR and DRS (while Hamilton's was the opposite, especially with his butchering in CF all season).

Regardless, whether Hunter was more valuable or not really wasn't the point of the post. It's that they are basically replacing Hunter's very good production from 2012 for a far more costly and risky alternative. The upgrade with Hamilton on Hunter's 2012, if you even believe there is one, is negligible at best. And they've still taken a step back on the pitching side. They're not AL favorites or even AL West favorites yet.


there might be a lot of risk in the contract but Hamilton is a difference maker and there is every indication that inflation is going to go crazy in the next few years in baseball.

You're right about the crazy inflation coming, I suspect. But I wonder how much of a difference maker Hamilton will be in a offense suppressing park that saps power as both his contact skills and defense continue to erode.

Hamilton's career slash line at Rangers Ball Park: .315/.373/.592
Hamilton's career slash line at Angels Stadium: .260/.325/.440
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Re: Josh Hamilton goes to LA for 5 years

Postby mweir145 » Fri Dec 14, 2012 10:33 am

GiantsFan14 wrote:A lot of money for a guy who swung at pitches out of the zone 45.4% of the time last year and only made contact 52.1% of the time on those pitches. That's some terrible plate discipline and a lot of swinging and missing.

Hamilton just doesn't have a good plate approach, he's never had one. Another issue that could hurt him as he ages.
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Josh Hamilton goes to LA for 5 years

Postby lastingsgriller » Fri Dec 14, 2012 10:41 am

When he is hot, he is the best hitter in baseball though. I don't think pitchers are more terrified of anything in the world than a hot josh Hamilton.
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Re: Josh Hamilton goes to LA for 5 years

Postby Skin Blues » Fri Dec 14, 2012 10:49 am

Yeah Hamilton does not look like he will age well, either skills wise or health wise. It's hard to say it's a bad move for the Angels considering they're in win-now mode and have the cash to make deals like this, but it's weird that they chose not to go after Hunter for a 2 year deal rather than 5 years on Hamilton. They're similar players in that they both sacrifice contact for power with similar results and Hamilton with obviously more power, but Hunter has superior defense, durability, and it seems like the fans loved him. And his 2 years would have cost as much as each one of the years for Hamilton, meaning they probably could have been in on Anibal Sanchez as well, for about the same overall cost. Strange.
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Re: Josh Hamilton goes to LA for 5 years

Postby Tavish » Fri Dec 14, 2012 1:53 pm

When you are battling for local market attention with the Dodgers this offseason, all bets are off. Getting Hamilton out of CF will be a blessing for him defensively and possibly health-wise.
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Re: Josh Hamilton goes to LA for 5 years

Postby Art Vandelay » Fri Dec 14, 2012 4:16 pm

I'm really pumped for the next CBA negotiations when the same owners who are giving out these contracts cry about salary inflation and complain about how the players union has to be reined in and how exploding salaries are threatening the very fabric of the game.
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Re: Josh Hamilton goes to LA for 5 years

Postby Urban Cohorts » Fri Dec 14, 2012 6:27 pm

mweir145 wrote:They're not AL favorites or even AL West favorites yet.


I know its still early, but the Angels are the favorites to win the World Series...

http://sports.bovada.lv/sports-betting/ ... utures.jsp

I know the Angels aren't the best team in baseball and I agree with your post on Hamilton, but to say the Angels aren't the team to beat in the AL West is inaccurate. Even with the loss of Haren, the Angels will have a decent 2013 from Hamilton, a full season of Trout, and a Pujols who won't bat under .225 for a whole month. The Rangers got worse and the As haven't made any moves that I'm aware of.
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Re: Josh Hamilton goes to LA for 5 years

Postby mweir145 » Fri Dec 14, 2012 6:42 pm

Urban Cohorts wrote:
mweir145 wrote:They're not AL favorites or even AL West favorites yet.


I know its still early, but the Angels are the favorites to win the World Series...

http://sports.bovada.lv/sports-betting/ ... utures.jsp

I know the Angels aren't the best team in baseball and I agree with your post on Hamilton, but to say the Angels aren't the team to beat in the AL West is inaccurate. Even with the loss of Haren, the Angels will have a decent 2013 from Hamilton, a full season of Trout, and a Pujols who won't bat under .225 for a whole month. The Rangers got worse and the As haven't made any moves that I'm aware of.

And it seems that bettors also currently see the Jays as the favorites in the AL East, which is based largely on a few player moves and something that I don't agree with either. Do you?

As it stands, the Angels are a worse team than they were last season in a division that they didn't even win. Beyond the hype of this Hamilton move, I'm struggling to understand how that makes them the consensus favorites for the AL West. They could very well win the division, but both the Rangers and A's are also very good teams (and the Rangers, in particular, will make more additions).
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Re: Josh Hamilton goes to LA for 5 years

Postby kab21 » Fri Dec 14, 2012 7:12 pm

mweir145 wrote:Yeah, I figured that one was coming. Do you have some other, better measure of value for last year than both rWAR and fWAR that tells you that Hamilton was the better player in 2012? Or is it simply the fact that Hamilton is the bigger name and current talent, so he intuitively "should" be more valuable?


Better analysis tool than WAR = a brain that doesn't shut off simply because an equation spits out a magic number
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