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James Shields to KC?

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Re: James Shields to KC?

Postby kab21 » Tue Dec 11, 2012 11:00 pm

Urban Cohorts wrote:
In all seriousness, I still don't see how this benefits the Rays this year. Shields is a top MLB SP workhorse. The Rays rotation outside of Price is still questionable. Hellickson posts numbers that aren't even remotely sustainable if you look at his peripherals. Moore, Archer, and Odorizzi all have talent, but none of them have posted stellar seasons. There is no guarantee that any of those guys will come close performing like Shields did over the last couple of years.

And Myers has how many major league at bats? I don't get why everyone assumes he is going to be an immediate impact hitter. Plenty of *top* prospects get called up and take a few years to put everything together. What makes Myers the exception?


I think most teams would still be happy to have a rotation with Price, Hellickson, Moore, Niemann, Cobb, Archer and Odorizzi. They barely have any decent hitters. Their lineup consists of Longoria, Zobrist, Joyce, Jennings, Yunel and a bunch of scrub hitters. they needed to add offense and this move gives them a chance to add a FA hitter like Swisher and a potential middle of the order bat in Myers. Of course Myers could disappoint but this brings me to the bigger picture.

The Rays aren't only playing for 2013. They are a financially constrained team with limited resources. shields was going to be traded this year or next. And they had the 18th best offense last year before they lost Upton. they needed to find a way to strengthen their offense using the one extra resource that they have (starting pitching).
Last edited by kab21 on Thu Dec 13, 2012 10:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: James Shields to KC?

Postby MaudDib » Wed Dec 12, 2012 11:31 am

Skin Blues wrote:
MaudDib wrote:That is assuming that you think Wieters and Gordon are impact players. Neither one has lived up to the hype they had and most fan bases would label them as failures. Both still have upside but they aren't what I would call impact players. Even Heyward is still somewhat of a question mark. He has 2 very solid years with one not so good year in between. If he stays healthy this year then it answers the question but if he has another injury filled year then he doesn't get to be considered an impact player just yet.

There also has to be some question marks from the 90's and the steroid era. While we will never know how much steroids effects the game, we know it does effect the game and there are too many players that fell off right around 2002 when the steroid era changed. So if you go back just 10 years, it is 60/40 on who Myers will be. If you break that down even further you have 2 busts, 4 good but not great players and 2 MVP caliber players. As long as he doesn't become an MVP caliber player then this deal is fine. You can replace everyone else.

You don't have to assume that Wieters and Gordon are impact players, you just have to look at the results. Their careers to this point have been worth $57M and $79M, respectively. Wieters hasn't even burned an arbitration year yet. If Myers turns into either of those failures, as you call them, the Rays won this deal in a landslide. If he's anything other than Delmon Young, essentially, then they made out like bandits.


If you swap what Gordon has been so far with Myers, there is no way the Rays make this trade. I like Gordon and I am very happy that he has become a productive player but teams don't trade guys like Gordon for the kind of pitcher Shields has been.

If the Royals make the playoffs the next two years, then it will be hard to argue with what the Royals did here. They don't have any pitching and they feel that the Royals are ready to start winning now. As a Royals fan it is nice to see them being progressive rather than reactionary or conservative like they usually are. If the hitters come around like many expected them to do last year but we still rolled out the same sad bunch of SP we had last year, this team would have little chance at making the playoffs. Now the Royals have an actual major league rotation and should benefit from whatever improvement the hitters should have.
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Re: James Shields to KC?

Postby Tavish » Thu Dec 13, 2012 2:40 am

As much as I hate to see Myers go, two years of Shields is a way better return than I had expected for him.
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Re: James Shields to KC?

Postby Skin Blues » Thu Dec 13, 2012 1:07 pm

kab21 wrote:The Rays aren't only playing for 2013. They are a financially constrained team with limited resources. shields was going to be traded this year or next. And they had the 18th best offense last year before they lost Upton. they needed to find a way to strengthen their offense using the one extra resource that they have (starting pitching).

Yep, they improved their offense, which wasn't even that bad last season. For the same reason that their pitchers have better numbers than they would in a neutral environment, their hitters conversely have worse numbers. Despite being 18th in runs scored in 2012, they were 8th in wRC+. They also finished 7th in wRC+ in 2011, and 5th in wRC+ in 2010 (AL Ranks: 5th, 4th, 2nd). Adding Myers will definitely help offset the loss of BJ Upton and keep them an above average offense. With Cobb/Archer/Odorizzi all fighting for the spot to replace Shields in the rotation, they aren't exactly suffering on the pitching side, either.
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Re: James Shields to KC?

Postby Skin Blues » Sun Jan 13, 2013 4:32 pm

The Royals ZiPS projections are out publicly now by Dan Szymborski. Shields projected to have a 4.11 ERA after the move to KC. These are by no means definitive, as ZiPS is typically better at hitting projections than pitching. It'll be interesting to see what Steamer thinks, as last year they got Shields' ERA almost bang-on. He was also projected for a 3.76 with ZiPS last year which was pretty close to what he ended up with. You've been warned!
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Re: James Shields to KC?

Postby Ender » Sun Jan 13, 2013 10:39 pm

They are actually pretty good at predicting pitching, just not ERA which is largely random over just 200 IP. If you look at a component ERA vs predicted you usually see pretty darn good results.
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Re: James Shields to KC?

Postby mweir145 » Sat Sep 28, 2013 5:20 pm

Just updating this thread now that the results are in:

As should have been a surprise to no one, James Shields' ERA in 2013 improved in KC to 3.15 (from 3.52 in 2012 with Tampa).The move to the easier division and a different pitcher's ballpark proved to be no problem at all for him as he finished 8th among AL starters (and 14th in MLB) in fWAR. And despite allowing a greater share of fly balls overall, his HR/FB% dropped significantly in 2013 which allowed him to reduce his overall HR rate as well.

Unlike the other big SP trade acquisition of last offseason (Dickey), Shields was everything the Royals could have wanted or expected. It wasn't enough to make the playoffs, but that certainly wasn't his fault.
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Re: James Shields to KC?

Postby OBPlover » Sat Sep 28, 2013 6:08 pm

mweir145 wrote:Just updating this thread now that the results are in:

As should have been a surprise to no one, James Shields' ERA in 2013 improved in KC to 3.15 (from 3.52 in 2012 with Tampa).The move to the easier division and a different pitcher's ballpark proved to be no problem at all for him as he finished 8th among AL starters (and 14th in MLB) in fWAR. And despite allowing a greater share of fly balls overall, his HR/FB% dropped significantly in 2013 which allowed him to reduce his overall HR rate as well.

Unlike the other big SP trade acquisition of last offseason (Dickey), Shields was everything the Royals could have wanted or expected. It wasn't enough to make the playoffs, but that certainly wasn't his fault.



It came as a surprise to me as it should to anyone else who took him. A pleasant surprise but that's baseball.

He was a disaster in Kauffman stadium (which hasn't been a pitcher's park in the past two years). His K/BB dropped and his BAA increased. His ERA should have climbed this year but he got lucky. He's a good sell high in a keeper league.
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Re: James Shields to KC?

Postby mweir145 » Sat Sep 28, 2013 6:48 pm

OBPlover wrote:It came as a surprise to me as it should to anyone else who took him. A pleasant surprise but that's baseball.

Perhaps if you had read this article last December (http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/james- ... d-divisio/) or any of my posts in this thread you wouldn't have been so surprised.

He was a disaster in Kauffman stadium (which hasn't been a pitcher's park in the past two years).

Calling what he did this year at home a disaster is laughable (3.92 FIP/3.98 xFIP), but if you believe that's the case, it surely would have been even more of a disaster in a home park that doesn't suppress HRs like Kauffman. The key for him in 2013, of course, was getting out of a division where he had to pitch frequently on the road in hitter's parks against top hitting teams (BOS, BAL, NY, TOR) to face teams like the White Sox and Twins.

His K/BB dropped and his BAA increased.

The K/BB drop was more than made up by the significant improvement in his HR rate (which has always been his only real weakness as a pitcher).

His ERA should have climbed this year but he got lucky. He's a good sell high in a keeper league.

Lucky? His FIP (3.47) was identical to what it was in 2012 and only .05 off of what it was in 2011 (3.42). His fWAR (4.5) was the best of his career yet (tied with 2011). He also led the AL in innings pitched (228.2) and made it now 7 straight years of 200+ IP (3rd in the majors in IP over that time).

Sell high if you want, but he hasn't given any good reason to doubt him yet (in fact, the HR issue that plagued him at the beginning of his career has only been improving since 2011). Shields is a picture of consistency. One of only a few pitchers in this sport you can say that about at the moment.
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Re: James Shields to KC?

Postby Skin Blues » Sat Sep 28, 2013 10:45 pm

Meh. His xFIP jumped up half a run, SIERA went up 2/3 of a run, and he got lucky with his road HR/FB%. I'm not surprised to see your new found faith in a single season's worth of ERA over the advanced statistics in light of the results, haha.
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