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James Shields to KC?

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Re: James Shields to KC?

Postby mweir145 » Tue Dec 11, 2012 3:33 pm

Skin Blues wrote:Defensive metrics I used take 3 eyars to stabilize, and are also much more about team structure and strategy/positioning (Madden vs Yost) than hitting which is a series of individual events that stabilize after one season. We could play that game though, and go back to 2010/2011 to compare the offense. It really doesn't change much (.320 wOBA/98 wRC+ vs .330 wOBA/103 wRC+ which still pales in comparison to the effect of defense and park factors). If that's your only criticism, I'm pretty disappointed. Come on, support your argument! You can do better than that!

No, you showed a bit of intellectual dishonesty in choosing one year (2012) to compare offenses because it fit your argument. The Red Sox and Jays had terrible down years compared to what is normal for them. For that reason, the AL East was less of an offensive behemoth that is usually is. That isn't the norm, though. The AL East is a far superior offensive division to the AL Central and should continue to be in the future.
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Re: James Shields to KC?

Postby mweir145 » Tue Dec 11, 2012 3:37 pm

Skin Blues wrote:And sure, make a bet. I already said I think he'll end up with a 3.80 ERA (I had 3.50 before the trade). Come up with something. It's funny to see somebody so keen on making statistical arguments simply choose to make a bet instead of actually proving his point.

But you just said based on a very suspect and flimsy calculation that he'll end up with a 4.10+ ERA. Why go back on that now?

The reason for the bet is to make sure you actually believe what you're posting (that moving away from the AL East to a pitcher's park in Kansas City of all places will result in James Shields' ERA skyrocketing) and that you aren't just going against the more rational argument for the sake of it.
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Re: James Shields to KC?

Postby Skin Blues » Tue Dec 11, 2012 3:48 pm

mweir145 wrote:
Skin Blues wrote:And sure, make a bet. I already said I think he'll end up with a 3.80 ERA (I had 3.50 before the trade). Come up with something. It's funny to see somebody so keen on making statistical arguments simply choose to make a bet instead of actually proving his point.

But you just said based on a very suspect and flimsy calculation that he'll end up with a 4.10+ ERA. Why go back on that now?

The reason for the bet is to make sure you actually believe what you're posting (that moving away from the AL East to Kansas City of all places will result in James Shields' ERA skyrocketing) and that you aren't just going against the more rational argument for the sake of it.

No, I said if you adjust his 2012 season then he gets a 4.10 ERA. I didn't say I expect that for 2013. I wouldn't just take a pitcher's 2012 output and assume it will remain unchanged for 2013.

My point is that James Shields is not the superstar you're making him out to be just because he was in the AL East. You overstate how good the offense has been in the East and for some reason have your head in the sand with regards to park factors and defense. Make no mistake, pitching for Tampa is very beneficial to a pitcher's ERA, more so than in KC. Shields has had a few very good years, and if his ground ball tendencies remain, he should still be a very good pitcher, but he's not an ace.
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Re: James Shields to KC?

Postby mweir145 » Tue Dec 11, 2012 4:08 pm

Skin Blues wrote:No, I said if you adjust his 2012 season then he gets a 4.10 ERA. I didn't say I expect that for 2013. I wouldn't just take a pitcher's 2012 output and assume it will remain unchanged for 2013.

Except you just made the claim (as ridiculous as it was) that if he was pitching in Kansas City in 2012 that he would have had a 4.10+ ERA considering competition, park factors, defense, etc. What's supposed to be the difference next year that will bring him down to a 3.80 ERA? Are you suddenly banking on him pitching better than he did in 2012? Something does not follow here.


My point is that James Shields is not the superstar you're making him out to be just because he was in the AL East.

He's an excellent pitcher. Has been for two seasons now. I don't believe where I've called him an "ace" or a "superstar," and I'm not entirely sure what those terms mean to you (or even to me). I would take him over every pitcher in the AL next season except Verlander, Felix, Price, and CC, though.

You overstate how good the offense has been in the East and for some reason have your head in the sand with regards to park factors and defense.

The offense in the East is regularly far better than in the Central (which isn't debatable unless you rather dishonestly take a one year sample size like 2012). And he'll almost certainly get a boost from having to pitch in a bunch of parks that limit HRs, his main issue, instead of the opposite (see Sarris' post).

The only question remains team defense and how much that will hurt him. I believe you've completely overstated just how bad KC is in that area, though. They have three excellent defensive players in Gordon, Moustakas, and Cain that they didn't have just a few years ago (well Gordon was there, just playing a bad 3B), a SS in Escobar who looks like he could be fantastic defensively at the position, and a catcher who is arguably among the best in the game defensively already in Perez. This isn't a team with a bunch of butchers in the field, they project to be quite good in this area going forward. Will Shields miss Zobrist, Longoria, and Tampa's defensive schemes? Sure. But the rest of the advantages that he's going to gain should more than make up for it especially if KC's team defense is as good as it appears it could be.
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Re: James Shields to KC?

Postby Skin Blues » Tue Dec 11, 2012 4:32 pm

mweir145 wrote:
Skin Blues wrote:No, I said if you adjust his 2012 season then he gets a 4.10 ERA. I didn't say I expect that for 2013. I wouldn't just take a pitcher's 2012 output and assume it will remain unchanged for 2013.

Except you just made the claim (as ridiculous as it was) that if he was pitching in Kansas City in 2012 that he would have had a 4.10+ ERA considering competition, park factors, defense, etc. What's supposed to be the difference next year that will bring him down to a 3.80 ERA? Are you suddenly banking on him pitching better than he did in 2012? Something does not follow here.

I think he will be slightly better than he was in 2012, but not as good as 2011. Every pitcher is either better or worse than they were the year before. Why is that hard to follow?

mweir145 wrote:
My point is that James Shields is not the superstar you're making him out to be just because he was in the AL East.

He's an excellent pitcher. Has been for two seasons now. I don't believe where I've called him an "ace" or a "superstar," and I'm not entirely sure what those terms mean to you (or even to me). I would take him over every pitcher in the AL next season except Verlander, Felix, Price, and CC, though.

You said he was one of the top 10-15 pitchers in the majors. To me, he's not even close to that. Difference of opinion I guess.

mweir145 wrote:
You overstate how good the offense has been in the East and for some reason have your head in the sand with regards to park factors and defense.

The offense in the East is regularly far better than in the Central (which isn't debatable unless you rather dishonestly take a one year sample size like 2012). And he'll almost certainly get a boost from having to pitch in a bunch of parks that limit HRs, his main issue, instead of the opposite (see Sarris' post).

HR Park factors, from 2010-2012, weighted for 50% of games at home and 6% in each division rival's park: 97 for Tampa, 95 for KC. And you are still ignoring all other Park Factor Components which add up to 94 for Tampa and 101 for KC. These are not small differences.

mweir145 wrote:The only question remains team defense and how much that will hurt him. I believe you've completely overstated just how bad KC is in that area, though. They have three excellent defensive players in Gordon, Moustakas, and Cain that they didn't have just a few years ago (well Gordon was there, just playing a bad 3B), a SS in Escobar who looks like he could be fantastic defensively at the position, and a catcher who is arguably among the best in the game defensively already in Perez. This isn't a team with a bunch of butchers in the field, they project to be quite good in this area going forward. Will Shields miss Zobrist, Longoria, and Tampa's defensive schemes? Sure. But the rest of the advantages that he's going to gain should more than make up for it especially if KC's team defense is as good as it appears it could be.

It's entirely possible that KC gets much better at defense. The team on the field is really not all that different from last year or the year before, though. The Greinke trade that netted them Cain and Alcides was after the 2010 season. This is largely the same defense as they had in 2011 and 2012, with the same manager.
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Re: James Shields to KC?

Postby mweir145 » Tue Dec 11, 2012 4:52 pm

Skin Blues wrote:I think he will be slightly better than he was in 2012, but not as good as 2011. Every pitcher is either better or worse than they were the year before. Why is that hard to follow?

It's hard to follow because you've spent the last few pages telling me how Shields' ERA is going to skyrocket, but now you're telling me that he's going to pitch "slightly better" in 2013 despite that. Why not just admit that you're not entirely confident in your assertion that he's a "4.10 ERA+ pitcher" in Kansas City? If you were confident, you'd likely take that bet with the 4.00 ERA.

You said he was one of the top 10-15 pitchers in the majors. To me, he's not even close to that. Difference of opinion I guess.

9th in fWAR over the last two seasons (and 5th in the better offensive league that doesn't have pitchers). I'd have a very hard time naming 10 pitchers that are better bets than him to produce more value in 2013, let alone 15. I think most would.



HR Park factors, from 2010-2012, based on 50% of games at home and 6% in each division rival: 97 for Tampa, 95 for KC. And you are still ignoring all other Park Factor Components which add up to 94 for Tampa and 101 for KC. These are not small differences.

He won't just be pitching in Kansas City more often. The road parks that he'll frequent regularly (outside of US Cellular) will be much better for him than any of the other parks in the AL East, which again, is why his career home/road ERA splits aren't a concern at all to me.

It's entirely possible that KC gets much better at defense. The team on the field is really not all that different from last year or the year before, though. The Greinke trade that netted them Cain and Alcides was after the 2010 season. This is largely the same defense as they had in 2011 and 2012, with the same manager.

Except the Royals have been pretty good defensively since 2011 (8th in the majors in both DRS and UZR/150). They don't have to change much at all. It's before that that they were butchers (in 2010, when they were an entirely different team, they were the worst defensive team in baseball with -95 DRS) and that's holding their numbers back in your analysis. This is not a group that is going to hurt Shields' numbers.
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Re: James Shields to KC?

Postby Skin Blues » Tue Dec 11, 2012 5:27 pm

mweir145 wrote:
Skin Blues wrote:I think he will be slightly better than he was in 2012, but not as good as 2011. Every pitcher is either better or worse than they were the year before. Why is that hard to follow?

It's hard to follow because you've spent the last few pages telling me how Shields' ERA is going to skyrocket, but now you're telling me that he's going to pitch "slightly better" in 2013 despite that. Why not just admit that you're not entirely confident in your assertion that he's a "4.10 ERA+ pitcher" in Kansas City? If you were confident, you'd likely take that bet with the 4.00 ERA.

I don't know why this is so hard to convey... I'm not assuming that he will exactly repeat his 2012. Take a weighted average of his ERA from past few seasons and correct for luck factors, adjust for park/defense/competition, and arrive at 3.80 ERA. it's not rocket science, and nto meant to be accurate to two decimal places. If he exactly repeated 2012, then sure, I'd see a 4+ ERA. But his 2011 was a lot better than his 2012 so I'm finding a middle ground.

mweir145 wrote:
HR Park factors, from 2010-2012, based on 50% of games at home and 6% in each division rival: 97 for Tampa, 95 for KC. And you are still ignoring all other Park Factor Components which add up to 94 for Tampa and 101 for KC. These are not small differences.

He won't just be pitching in Kansas City more often. The road parks that he'll frequent regularly (outside of US Cellular) will be much better for him than any of the other parks in the AL East, which again, is why his career home/road ERA splits aren't a concern at all to me.

I don't think you're reading complete sentences. Those park factors are weighted for every park, not just KC. The road parks that he'll regularly frequent are taken into account. 24% of his games will be in Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, and Minnesota. 50% will be in KC. 26% will be in other divisions/interleague/etc. Overall, the schedule adjusted HR park factor based on three years of park data, is 95 for KC. Doing the exact same thing in TB, it's 97. A very small difference in HR. Doing the same exercise, with the same weighting, for Run Scoring Park Factor, is 101 for KC and 94 for Tampa. This is a much more comprehensive Park Factor that takes everything into account, not just HR. That extra foul territory leads to lots of extra outs.

mweir145 wrote:
It's entirely possible that KC gets much better at defense. The team on the field is really not all that different from last year or the year before, though. The Greinke trade that netted them Cain and Alcides was after the 2010 season. This is largely the same defense as they had in 2011 and 2012, with the same manager.

Except the Royals have been pretty good defensively since 2011 (8th in the majors in both DRS and UZR/150). They don't have to change much at all. It's before that that they were butchers (in 2010, when they were an entirely different team, they were the worst defensive team in baseball with -95 DRS) and that's holding their numbers back in your analysis. This is not a group that is going to hurt Shields' numbers.

OK, use the defense from 2011-2012 instead. The Rays have saved 53.5 runs/season over that period, and 14.5 for the Royals. Works out to 6 additional runs for Shields, or an ERA bump of 0.24, just from defense, using your chosen time frame.
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Re: James Shields to KC?

Postby mweir145 » Tue Dec 11, 2012 5:58 pm

Skin Blues wrote:I don't know why this is so hard to convey... I'm not assuming that he will exactly repeat his 2012. Take a weighted average of his ERA from past few seasons and correct for luck factors, adjust for park/defense/competition, and arrive at 3.80 ERA. it's not rocket science, and nto meant to be accurate to two decimal places. If he exactly repeated 2012, then sure, I'd see a 4+ ERA. But his 2011 was a lot better than his 2012 so I'm finding a middle ground.

And this is where we run into even more logical holes. You've been quoted as saying that James Shields is "not even close" to the top 10-15 pitchers in the game and now you're telling me that you expect him to pitch between the level of his 2011 and his 2012 (which would certainly a level among the top 10-15 pitchers). This anticipated level would also cause his ERA to go back below 4.00 (a number that you claim he wouldn't have gotten under if he pitched in KC last season). Again, I'm only left puzzled and wondering just how good you think this guy actually is.

BTW, if James Shields is better than Jon Lester as you've said and James Shields is "not even close" to a top 10-15 pitcher, then where exactly is Lester? Completely off the map, I can only assume.

I don't think you're reading complete sentences.

And I think you've left reason, common sense, and any semblance of logical consistency behind in the attempt to continue an argument beyond it's point of expiration, but I wasn't going to say anything. It would have been beneficial for you to let it be after Sarris' FanGraphs post. The more you write, the more I wonder what the entire point of all this is.
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Re: James Shields to KC?

Postby Skin Blues » Tue Dec 11, 2012 6:16 pm

I'm not going to keep repeating the same things if you want to ignore them every time. Have a good day sir!
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Re: James Shields to KC?

Postby mweir145 » Tue Dec 11, 2012 7:20 pm

Skin Blues wrote:I'm not going to keep repeating the same things if you want to ignore them every time. Have a good day sir!

Until the next discussion full of logical inconsistencies and questionable claims, then.
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