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James Shields to KC?

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Re: James Shields to KC?

Postby bigh0rt » Tue Dec 11, 2012 10:47 am

When all is said and done here, the happiest team may be the Braves, because the haul they sent for Mark Teixeira won't seem as terrible (spoiler alert: it still will).
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Re: James Shields to KC?

Postby MaudDib » Tue Dec 11, 2012 11:04 am

JRM4833 wrote:
MaudDib wrote:Man do prospects get over-hyped. I want to say that I don't love this deal but I don't think it is fair to call it a horrible deal either. The Royals need pitching but have a ton of hitting. Shields isn't an ace but he is a very solid #2 and there were no aces available. Everybody loves Myers right now because he hasn't done anything in the majors yet but there no one really knows what he will turn into. So many prospects bust out or don't turn into the player everyone is sure they will be. Brandon Wood is an extreme example but Pedro Alvarez is one that is very recent that comes to mind. So the Royals traded their top prospect at the peak of his value for a pitcher with a very solid past two years. Maybe they only get two good but there is no guarantee that Myers would have given them 6 excellent years. Maybe he becomes replaces Francouer and then becomes what Francouer was years ago.

Myers has plenty of question marks (high k rate for one) and maybe the Royals don't see him as anything special. Way to early to call this a bad deal. The last big deal (I believe it was the last big deal anyway) that Moore did was the Greinke deal. And I think the Royals did very well in that trade so it is a little premature to call this a horrible trade by the Royals.


Alright now for everyone that wants to flame me....go ahead.


It's not that Myers is a lock to be a great MLB player. The problem is simply his perceived value, along with that of the other prospects. This deal could certainly work out to be a great deal for the Royals, but people simply think they could get more. Personally, if it were Myers for Shields straight up, then I think it would be easier to justify. But the perception is that they emptied the farm (including a top-3 prospect) for a #2 starter. I'm not foolish enough to think I know more than MLB GMs about baseball talent, but given the hype I think they overpaid for Shields (i.e. they could have gotten more for this particular package or given up less for what they got).


The problem with this is that is what WE think. Not actually what happens. Look at what it takes to get a major league player the caliber of Shields. You usually have to give up a top prospect. History is full of deadline deals where a team gives up a guy for half a season and the team getting him has to give up one of there top talents. Just look at what the Brewers did a few years ago for Greinke and Morrow. I think there is perception that a team should be able to get more for a top prospect but in actuality the prospect is never as valuable as the guy who has proven ML stuff.
"In the beginning the Universe was created. This has made a lot of people very angry and has been widely regarded as a bad move."- Douglas Adams

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Re: James Shields to KC?

Postby MaudDib » Tue Dec 11, 2012 11:20 am

Skin Blues wrote:
MaudDib wrote:Man do prospects get over-hyped. I want to say that I don't love this deal but I don't think it is fair to call it a horrible deal either. The Royals need pitching but have a ton of hitting. Shields isn't an ace but he is a very solid #2 and there were no aces available. Everybody loves Myers right now because he hasn't done anything in the majors yet but there no one really knows what he will turn into. So many prospects bust out or don't turn into the player everyone is sure they will be. Brandon Wood is an extreme example but Pedro Alvarez is one that is very recent that comes to mind. So the Royals traded their top prospect at the peak of his value for a pitcher with a very solid past two years. Maybe they only get two good but there is no guarantee that Myers would have given them 6 excellent years. Maybe he becomes replaces Francouer and then becomes what Francouer was years ago.

Myers has plenty of question marks (high k rate for one) and maybe the Royals don't see him as anything special. Way to early to call this a bad deal. The last big deal (I believe it was the last big deal anyway) that Moore did was the Greinke deal. And I think the Royals did very well in that trade so it is a little premature to call this a horrible trade by the Royals.


Alright now for everyone that wants to flame me....go ahead.

I wont' say anything, I'll just quote from this article:

Wil Myers is not a good prospect. He is not a very good prospect. He is one of the best prospects in baseball, almost certain to be among the top five of every prospect list that is published this offseason. Good prospects fail all the time. Very good prospects fail more often than not. But the very best prospects — especially hitting prospects, whose risk of injury is dramatically lower than their counterparts on the mound — turn into above-average regulars, if not stars, well over 50 percent of the time.

Myers, as mentioned, was named Minor League Player of the Year. In the past 20 years, 14 position players won the same award. Here are their names:

1992: Tim Salmon
1993: Manny Ramirez
1994: Derek Jeter
1995: Andruw Jones
1996: Andruw Jones
1997: Paul Konerko
1998: Eric Chavez
2002: Rocco Baldelli
2003: Joe Mauer
2005: Delmon Young
2006: Alex Gordon
2007: Jay Bruce
2008: Matt Wieters
2009: Jason Heyward
2011: Mike Trout

Yes, Delmon Young was once the Minor League Player of the Year, and if you want to spin this trade for the Royals, you can bring up Young's name as a cautionary tale. And after a promising start to his career, Rocco Baldelli was ravaged by injuries and his career ended at age 28. But every other player on that list has gone on to become a well-above-average player at his position. Most of them became stars. At least a few will go into the Hall of Fame.

Based on the list above, Wil Myers has about an 86 percent chance of becoming a true impact player in the major leagues.


That is assuming that you think Wieters and Gordon are impact players. Neither one has lived up to the hype they had and most fan bases would label them as failures. Both still have upside but they aren't what I would call impact players. Even Heyward is still somewhat of a question mark. He has 2 very solid years with one not so good year in between. If he stays healthy this year then it answers the question but if he has another injury filled year then he doesn't get to be considered an impact player just yet.

There also has to be some question marks from the 90's and the steroid era. While we will never know how much steroids effects the game, we know it does effect the game and there are too many players that fell off right around 2002 when the steroid era changed. So if you go back just 10 years, it is 60/40 on who Myers will be. If you break that down even further you have 2 busts, 4 good but not great players and 2 MVP caliber players. As long as he doesn't become an MVP caliber player then this deal is fine. You can replace everyone else.
"In the beginning the Universe was created. This has made a lot of people very angry and has been widely regarded as a bad move."- Douglas Adams

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Re: James Shields to KC?

Postby MaudDib » Tue Dec 11, 2012 11:28 am

Izenhart wrote:
Urban Cohorts wrote:And Myers has how many major league at bats? I don't get why everyone assumes he is going to be an immediate impact hitter. Plenty of *top* prospects get called up and take a few years to put everything together. What makes Myers the exception?


Because a team like the Royals won't compete this year or next regardless, so giving away a player with Myers' potential also lessens their chances at contending down the road if he does realize his potential. If he doesn't then all the Royals have accomplished is being mediocre at best for a few years while jeopardizing their potential stars/bargains in which to build an actual team around.

As someone said they would have just been better off going for a FA like Lohse and keeping Myers if they are looking to boost next year's team/staff.


Not sure how you see this. The Royals roster is filled with top prospects and two guys that two years ago were as good if not better than Myers. The Royals farm system still has a lot of talent in it so they didn't hurt themselves much in the farm department and the major league system still has probably 4 years left at bargain priced talents. People keep saying they mortgaged their future but I don't see how trading one player from their farm system kills the future. Hosmer, Moustakas, Butler, Perez, Escobar and Gordon will be here for a while.

The problem with going after a free agent is that you generally have to give them a lot more years which the Royals don't want to do. They still have some good young SP like Duffy and Lamb and they don't want to be stuck with a SP for the next 6 years that isn't that good. We constantly talk about how SP is too inconsistent so I think it is a good move by the Royals to trade for someone that won't hurt them in the long run. They don't have the resources to have too much money tied into question marks.
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Re: James Shields to KC?

Postby Skin Blues » Tue Dec 11, 2012 11:53 am

MaudDib wrote:That is assuming that you think Wieters and Gordon are impact players. Neither one has lived up to the hype they had and most fan bases would label them as failures. Both still have upside but they aren't what I would call impact players. Even Heyward is still somewhat of a question mark. He has 2 very solid years with one not so good year in between. If he stays healthy this year then it answers the question but if he has another injury filled year then he doesn't get to be considered an impact player just yet.

There also has to be some question marks from the 90's and the steroid era. While we will never know how much steroids effects the game, we know it does effect the game and there are too many players that fell off right around 2002 when the steroid era changed. So if you go back just 10 years, it is 60/40 on who Myers will be. If you break that down even further you have 2 busts, 4 good but not great players and 2 MVP caliber players. As long as he doesn't become an MVP caliber player then this deal is fine. You can replace everyone else.

You don't have to assume that Wieters and Gordon are impact players, you just have to look at the results. Their careers to this point have been worth $57M and $79M, respectively. Wieters hasn't even burned an arbitration year yet. If Myers turns into either of those failures, as you call them, the Rays won this deal in a landslide. If he's anything other than Delmon Young, essentially, then they made out like bandits.
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Re: James Shields to KC?

Postby Skin Blues » Tue Dec 11, 2012 1:15 pm

I looked into the assumption that the AL Central has much weaker offenses than the East. wRC+ is a good place to start; it's park neutral (we'll look at parks later), and we want to see just how good opposing teams are at creating runs. Turns out that the 4 teams the Rays face in the East had a combined 99 wRC+ last season. The 4 teams the Royals face in the Central also had a 99 wRC+. wOBA are the same between the two sets of opponents as well. Interesting.

Next we should look at park factors from 2010-2012, weighted 50% for home park and 6% for each other park in the division. For TB pitchers it works out to be a factor of 94 in terms of run scoring, and for KC it's 101. Pretty convingly shows it's much easier in terms of ballparks for a Rays pitcher than for the Royals, even when taking into account the band boxes that Tampa plays in on the road. Both KC and TB have parks that suppress HR at about the same level. The difference between the home parks (1.01 and 0.83 Run Scoring Factors) is made up by the huge foul territory in Tampa which destroys BABIP.

Now team defense; over the past 3 seasons TB has averaged 49 Defensive Runs Saved per season. This is by far the highest total in the major leagues. Over the same 3 year span, KC has averaged -19 Defensive Runs Saved. UZR agrees with both of these rankings over the same time period. So 68 defensive runs saved per season; pretty significant difference. For a pitcher throwing 15% of his teams innings that's an extra 10 runs per season, turning a guy with say, a 3.52 ERA in 2012 into an equivalent of a 3.91 ERA based on defense alone. If we add in a 7% bump based on park factors, we're looking at a 4.10+ ERA.

This is all for the average pitcher though. Maybe Shields, he of the 13th highest GB% in the majors last year, is solely affected by HR park factors, and is immune to such things as team defense and all the other components of park factors. I guess we just have no way of knowing.
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Re: James Shields to KC?

Postby thedude » Tue Dec 11, 2012 2:31 pm

Padsin05 wrote:
thedude wrote:The Royals internally are apparently very down on Myers, but this was a terrible trade. Look at other recent trades for starting pitchers: Pineda, Latos, and Gonzalez. This was a vast overpay for Shields. This would have been a fair trade... for Matt Moore.


I think on the surface the trade for Latos is about equal

the Padres got the Reds top 2 prospects (not named Aroldis) in Alonso and Grandal and a couple throw ins. But *mod edit* if I knew the Padres could have gotten this haul for Latos (and I think we made out in that deal with cincy) I woulda waited. Padres have always had a glaring whole in RF.



Mat Latos is cheaper and has longer control. Myers is better than anything the Padres received.
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Re: James Shields to KC?

Postby mweir145 » Tue Dec 11, 2012 3:04 pm

Skin Blues wrote:I looked into the assumption that the AL Central has much weaker offenses than the East. wRC+ is a good place to start; it's park neutral (we'll look at parks later), and we want to see just how good opposing teams are at creating runs. Turns out that the 4 teams the Rays face in the East had a combined 99 wRC+ last season. The 4 teams the Royals face in the Central also had a 99 wRC+. wOBA are the same between the two sets of opponents as well. Interesting.

What's also interesting is that you only looked at one season sample size here when the Jays and Red Sox absolutely sucked (as opposed to using three seasons as you did in the rest of your post). Something tells me there was a reason for that. :-D

There's little left for me to say about Shields moving to a HR suppressing home park against lesser competition that Sarris didn't already in that other post. If you feel so strongly about Shields' ERA climbing to above 4.00 next season due to defense despite moving away from the AL East and all of those HR-hitting ballparks, though, how about a bet?
Last edited by mweir145 on Tue Dec 11, 2012 3:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: James Shields to KC?

Postby Skin Blues » Tue Dec 11, 2012 3:26 pm

Defensive metrics I used take 3 eyars to stabilize, and are also much more about team structure and strategy/positioning (Madden vs Yost) than hitting which is a series of individual events that stabilize after one season. We could play that game though, and go back to 2010/2011 to compare the offense. It really doesn't change much (.320 wOBA/98 wRC+ vs .330 wOBA/103 wRC+ which still pales in comparison to the effect of defense and park factors). If that's your only criticism, I'm pretty disappointed. Come on, support your argument! You can do better than that!
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Re: James Shields to KC?

Postby Skin Blues » Tue Dec 11, 2012 3:30 pm

And sure, make a bet. I already said I think he'll end up with a 3.80 ERA (I had 3.50 before the trade). Come up with something. It's funny to see somebody so keen on making statistical arguments simply choose to make a bet instead of actually proving his point.
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