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James Shields to KC?

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Re: James Shields to KC?

Postby Padsin05 » Mon Dec 10, 2012 10:09 pm

thedude wrote:The Royals internally are apparently very down on Myers, but this was a terrible trade. Look at other recent trades for starting pitchers: Pineda, Latos, and Gonzalez. This was a vast overpay for Shields. This would have been a fair trade... for Matt Moore.


I think on the surface the trade for Latos is about equal

the Padres got the Reds top 2 prospects (not named Aroldis) in Alonso and Grandal and a couple throw ins. But *mod edit* if I knew the Padres could have gotten this haul for Latos (and I think we made out in that deal with cincy) I woulda waited. Padres have always had a glaring whole in RF.
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Re: James Shields to KC?

Postby mweir145 » Mon Dec 10, 2012 10:54 pm

Skin Blues wrote:I didn't say he wasn't pretty damn good. I said he was significantly better at The Trop vs on the road, an advantage that he will be losing.

By going to Kauffman, a park that suppresses home runs/keeps balls in the park? He's just not losing much there.

Again...the home/road splits thing would matter if he was going somewhere like Colorado or if he wasn't leaving the toughest division in baseball with elite offensive teams and HR-inducing ballparks throughout it. But he isn't...he's going to KC in the pitch in the awful AL Central. That will only help him, not hurt him.

They catch up to everybody. Halladay, Sabathia, Haren. He's been great so far and like I said, he gets extra points for being so durable.

Saying Shields could get hurt is like saying any pitcher could get hurt. Except in his case he has a long track record of good health, so he's far less likely to do it than many, many others. Not sure why this is being brought up.

We're evaluating a trade, or at least I was.

I'm just talking about James Shields, how good a pitcher he is (one of the best in the AL) and how he'll do in KC (presumably very well). But if you're evaluating the trade, that means you have to look at it from the perspective of how he will do in Kansas City (as that's what they're bringing him in to be...a pitcher in Kansas City), not this theoretical "true talent level" that doesn't make a bit of difference here.

If this was a debate about where Shields ranked among major league pitchers or even a debate for the Cy Young award, his "true talent level" would enter into it for me. But I don't think that's what is going on here.

The fact that he's facing weaker teams doesn't mean that he's a better pitcher.

No, but facing much lesser competition means there's good reason to think his numbers will improve or at least stay much the same.

And yes HRs are a concern for Shields (although probably not as much as before as he had one of the highest GB% in the majors last year), but he's not immune to other park factors which make Tampa an overwhelming pitcher's park.

HRs are THE concern for Shields. They're what caused his poor seasons in Tampa and they are still really the only thing holding him back from being a true elite in the game. He has a good K rate, exceptional command and control, and as you mentioned, an improving GB rate. Going to the AL Central with easier teams and less offensive, HR suppressing ballparks will not hurt him in this area.
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Re: James Shields to KC?

Postby kellythemick » Mon Dec 10, 2012 11:44 pm

I really liked Sickels' analysis - especially the part concerning the Royals inability to " identify cheap talent" and their expectation for a best case scenario when it comes to 2013 output for the players obtained as well as the players already in place.
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/12/10/3750830/apocalypse-now-royals-rays-dayton-moore-shields-myers-trade
If it's obvious it's probably true.
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Re: James Shields to KC?

Postby Skin Blues » Tue Dec 11, 2012 1:50 am

mweir145 wrote:
Skin Blues wrote:I didn't say he wasn't pretty damn good. I said he was significantly better at The Trop vs on the road, an advantage that he will be losing.

By going to Kauffman, a park that suppresses home runs/keeps balls in the park? He's just not losing much there.

Again...the home/road splits thing would matter if he was going somewhere like Colorado or if he wasn't leaving the toughest division in baseball with elite offensive teams and HR-inducing ballparks throughout it. But he isn't...he's going to KC in the pitch in the awful AL Central. That will only help him, not hurt him.

He is as susceptible to park effects as anybody else and the Trop is the most extreme pitcher's park in the league. Kauffman is neutral. We can break that down into all different categories like HR and hits and walks etc, but it adds up to quite a a huge difference in home parks. There's no difference in HR, sure, but there's a huge difference in all the other components.

There's also a difference in offensive talent. Those are mutually exclusive. Being a pitcher in Tampa is pretty much neutral with respect to the park and the opposition; great park and great offenses. Same net result in KC, but with bad competition and a neutral home park. What is not neutral is team defense where he takes a big hit with the team change. KC has a young and evolving team so it's hard to nail down how well they'll do, but Tampa paces the league in that department, and has for years. To me, that's enough to bump his ERA (3.89 career, 3.52 last season) up to the high-3s. If he was still in Tampa I'd probably assume low-mid 3's.
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Re: James Shields to KC?

Postby Urban Cohorts » Tue Dec 11, 2012 3:55 am

kab21 wrote:
Urban Cohorts wrote:And the Rays trade an above average, reliable, innings eater for prospects. The prospects are good but none of them look major league ready. Why make this move when the AL East is wide open to everyone but Boston? Worst case scenario for the Rays is they are out of contention and Shields gets moved at the All-Star break for similar prospects (barring injury of course).


This analysis is awful. The Rays still have a deep rotation and they freed up money to pick up an offensive player. I'm not sure how Myers and Odorizzi aren't MLB ready. Imo this is exactly what the Rays needed to balance out their team.


Your face is awful %-6

In all seriousness, I still don't see how this benefits the Rays this year. Shields is a top MLB SP workhorse. The Rays rotation outside of Price is still questionable. Hellickson posts numbers that aren't even remotely sustainable if you look at his peripherals. Moore, Archer, and Odorizzi all have talent, but none of them have posted stellar seasons. There is no guarantee that any of those guys will come close performing like Shields did over the last couple of years.

And Myers has how many major league at bats? I don't get why everyone assumes he is going to be an immediate impact hitter. Plenty of *top* prospects get called up and take a few years to put everything together. What makes Myers the exception?

A Fleshner Fantasy wrote:I agree, and the point you made about freeing up money is really important. Despite the fact that I think this trade is good for the Rays no matter what, you can't look at it in a vacuum. It's definitely possible that this isn't their end game, and that they can now sign someone who would not have otherwise been an option.


If the Rays use the money to sign someone else then okay. But that hasn't happened yet and I doubt that $9/$12 million they save in 2013/2014 is enough to add an impact hitter. Maybe I'm wrong and missing something, but neither Swisher nor LaRoche seem like game changers.

And I'm still wondering why the Rays make this move when the AL East is wide open. I realize the long term upside for the Rays is tremendous, but that doesn't help them win now with a weakened Yankees and uncompetitive Red Sox.
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Re: James Shields to KC?

Postby Izenhart » Tue Dec 11, 2012 4:07 am

Urban Cohorts wrote:And Myers has how many major league at bats? I don't get why everyone assumes he is going to be an immediate impact hitter. Plenty of *top* prospects get called up and take a few years to put everything together. What makes Myers the exception?


Because a team like the Royals won't compete this year or next regardless, so giving away a player with Myers' potential also lessens their chances at contending down the road if he does realize his potential. If he doesn't then all the Royals have accomplished is being mediocre at best for a few years while jeopardizing their potential stars/bargains in which to build an actual team around.

As someone said they would have just been better off going for a FA like Lohse and keeping Myers if they are looking to boost next year's team/staff.
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Re: James Shields to KC?

Postby bigh0rt » Tue Dec 11, 2012 9:31 am

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Re: James Shields to KC?

Postby mweir145 » Tue Dec 11, 2012 10:21 am

It's almost like Eno Sarris has been reading my posts.

What’s more likely the problem was that Shields was pitching in tough parks on the road. His road HR/FB was well above league average (13.9%), and that was over 674.2 innings spent in the same division. The Yankees (111 home run park factor), Orioles (109), and Blue Jays (105) are all in the top five coziest parks for home runs in the league. His new division has the White Sox (112 HR PF, worst in the league), but also the Twins (92), Indians (96), and Tigers (102) playing friendlier to Shields.

It’s tough to predict offenses for a whole division, but the added games against those teams should reduce the competition level some for Shields, too. Last year, the Orioles, Blue Jays, Yankees and Red Sox scored 2,966 runs. The Tigers, White Sox, Indians, Twins scored 2,842 runs. The weighted runs created tell the same story, too. It looks like the lineups he’ll face will play friendlier, too.

In the end, moving to a home park that suppresses home runs 5% more than your old home park can’t be a bad thing. And moving out of the division will be obviously be helpful.
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Re: James Shields to KC?

Postby Pogotheostrich » Tue Dec 11, 2012 10:38 am

Urban Cohorts wrote:And I'm still wondering why the Rays make this move when the AL East is wide open. I realize the long term upside for the Rays is tremendous, but that doesn't help them win now with a weakened Yankees and uncompetitive Red Sox.

Because it is almost certainly a long term win. If Myers isn't the hitter they think he is then they are worse in 2013 but there is a chance they are just as good and made theyselves much better for the future.
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Re: James Shields to KC?

Postby bigh0rt » Tue Dec 11, 2012 10:45 am

mweir145 wrote:It's almost like Eno Sarris has been reading my posts.

What’s more likely the problem was that Shields was pitching in tough parks on the road. His road HR/FB was well above league average (13.9%), and that was over 674.2 innings spent in the same division. The Yankees (111 home run park factor), Orioles (109), and Blue Jays (105) are all in the top five coziest parks for home runs in the league. His new division has the White Sox (112 HR PF, worst in the league), but also the Twins (92), Indians (96), and Tigers (102) playing friendlier to Shields.

It’s tough to predict offenses for a whole division, but the added games against those teams should reduce the competition level some for Shields, too. Last year, the Orioles, Blue Jays, Yankees and Red Sox scored 2,966 runs. The Tigers, White Sox, Indians, Twins scored 2,842 runs. The weighted runs created tell the same story, too. It looks like the lineups he’ll face will play friendlier, too.

In the end, moving to a home park that suppresses home runs 5% more than your old home park can’t be a bad thing. And moving out of the division will be obviously be helpful.
While reading it, I figured it was the other way around. B-) Seriously though, I think at worst, Shields breaks even here in terms of fantasy value. The park factors and division change could help him quite a bit, or be offset some by some potential awful defense and potential decrease in Wins. I still see him as a 8+ K/9 guy who could now bring huge value on draft/auction day if people think the move hurts his value that much.
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