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James Shields to KC?

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Re: James Shields to KC?

Postby Pogotheostrich » Mon Dec 10, 2012 5:51 pm

mweir145 wrote:
Skin Blues wrote:James Shields' career ERA at Tropicana Field: 3.33
James Shields' career ERA everywhere else...: 4.54

Except this doesn't mean much of anything. First, because he's done very well on the road since the beginning of the 2011 season (when he took the step to becoming the pitcher he is today). And second, he's going to just as big of a pitcher's park as Tampa and now he doesn't have to face New York, Boston, Toronto, or Baltimore as often on the road (or pitch in all of those hitter's parks as often either) which caused that high road ERA in the first place.

James Shields will do more than fine in KC. In fact, I would probably expect him to have the best year of his career in 2013 considering the much easier competition. It isn't necessary to denigrate his impressive ability/performance to call this trade a bad one for them.


Easier division and I'm not worried about the home/road splits because he is going to a pretty pitcher friendly home park. I am worried about the drop in the defense that is going to be behind him though.

Plus the fact that playing for the Royals seems to suck the life out of anyone after a while. :-D
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Re: James Shields to KC?

Postby A Fleshner Fantasy » Mon Dec 10, 2012 6:01 pm

kab21 wrote:
A Fleshner Fantasy wrote:I agree, and the point you made about freeing up money is really important. Despite the fact that I think this trade is good for the Rays no matter what, you can't look at it in a vacuum. It's definitely possible that this isn't their end game, and that they can now sign someone who would not have otherwise been an option.


I think they have been planning on trading Shields for awhile this offseason. Do they go after Swisher or LaRoche with this extra money?


I would say more likely Swisher, but that's mostly just a hunch. The Nats also seem to want to keep LaRoche, meaning trading for Morse could be an option.
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Re: James Shields to KC?

Postby MaudDib » Mon Dec 10, 2012 6:35 pm

Man do prospects get over-hyped. I want to say that I don't love this deal but I don't think it is fair to call it a horrible deal either. The Royals need pitching but have a ton of hitting. Shields isn't an ace but he is a very solid #2 and there were no aces available. Everybody loves Myers right now because he hasn't done anything in the majors yet but there no one really knows what he will turn into. So many prospects bust out or don't turn into the player everyone is sure they will be. Brandon Wood is an extreme example but Pedro Alvarez is one that is very recent that comes to mind. So the Royals traded their top prospect at the peak of his value for a pitcher with a very solid past two years. Maybe they only get two good but there is no guarantee that Myers would have given them 6 excellent years. Maybe he becomes replaces Francouer and then becomes what Francouer was years ago.

Myers has plenty of question marks (high k rate for one) and maybe the Royals don't see him as anything special. Way to early to call this a bad deal. The last big deal (I believe it was the last big deal anyway) that Moore did was the Greinke deal. And I think the Royals did very well in that trade so it is a little premature to call this a horrible trade by the Royals.


Alright now for everyone that wants to flame me....go ahead.
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Re: James Shields to KC?

Postby Skin Blues » Mon Dec 10, 2012 6:42 pm

mweir145 wrote:
Skin Blues wrote:James Shields' career ERA at Tropicana Field: 3.33
James Shields' career ERA everywhere else...: 4.54

Except this doesn't mean much of anything. First, because he's done very well on the road since the beginning of the 2011 season (when he took the step to becoming the pitcher he is today)

Home ERA since start of 2011: 2.78
Road ERA since start of 2011: 3.58

Still pretty extreme. The ballparks he pitched in do not explain that big of a gap in home vs road ERA. The ballpark and defense did a lot to cover up the fact that this is not an ace. In a neutral environment with a neutral defense (which is how we should assess a pitcher's true value) he's probably a 3.75 true talent ERA pitcher. He gets extra points for being so durable, but those innings will catch up to him, just like they do to everybody.

mweir145 wrote:And second, he's going to just as big of a pitcher's park as Tampa and now he doesn't have to face New York, Boston, Toronto, or Baltimore as often on the road (or pitch in all of those hitter's parks as often either) which caused that high road ERA in the first place.

We're talking about his true talent, and external factors like facing worse hitting does not mean that he's a better pitcher. But yes, he will be facing worse teams while with KC, both on the road and at home. But Kauffman has been a neutral hitter/pitcher park for the past 3 seasons, while the Trop has been an extreme pitcher's park in 2010/2011/2012. Don't know what numbers you're looking at that show they're equal.

mweir145 wrote:James Shields will do more than fine in KC. In fact, I would probably expect him to have the best year of his career in 2013 considering the much easier competition. It isn't necessary to denigrate his impressive ability/performance to call this trade a bad one for them.

Maybe he'll be good, maybe not. personally I'd look for an ERA closer to 4. And yes, regardless of how good he is this year and next, it does nothing to lessen the blow of this terrible decision by the Royals.
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Re: James Shields to KC?

Postby Skin Blues » Mon Dec 10, 2012 6:48 pm

MaudDib wrote:Man do prospects get over-hyped. I want to say that I don't love this deal but I don't think it is fair to call it a horrible deal either. The Royals need pitching but have a ton of hitting. Shields isn't an ace but he is a very solid #2 and there were no aces available. Everybody loves Myers right now because he hasn't done anything in the majors yet but there no one really knows what he will turn into. So many prospects bust out or don't turn into the player everyone is sure they will be. Brandon Wood is an extreme example but Pedro Alvarez is one that is very recent that comes to mind. So the Royals traded their top prospect at the peak of his value for a pitcher with a very solid past two years. Maybe they only get two good but there is no guarantee that Myers would have given them 6 excellent years. Maybe he becomes replaces Francouer and then becomes what Francouer was years ago.

Myers has plenty of question marks (high k rate for one) and maybe the Royals don't see him as anything special. Way to early to call this a bad deal. The last big deal (I believe it was the last big deal anyway) that Moore did was the Greinke deal. And I think the Royals did very well in that trade so it is a little premature to call this a horrible trade by the Royals.


Alright now for everyone that wants to flame me....go ahead.

I wont' say anything, I'll just quote from this article:

Wil Myers is not a good prospect. He is not a very good prospect. He is one of the best prospects in baseball, almost certain to be among the top five of every prospect list that is published this offseason. Good prospects fail all the time. Very good prospects fail more often than not. But the very best prospects — especially hitting prospects, whose risk of injury is dramatically lower than their counterparts on the mound — turn into above-average regulars, if not stars, well over 50 percent of the time.

Myers, as mentioned, was named Minor League Player of the Year. In the past 20 years, 14 position players won the same award. Here are their names:

1992: Tim Salmon
1993: Manny Ramirez
1994: Derek Jeter
1995: Andruw Jones
1996: Andruw Jones
1997: Paul Konerko
1998: Eric Chavez
2002: Rocco Baldelli
2003: Joe Mauer
2005: Delmon Young
2006: Alex Gordon
2007: Jay Bruce
2008: Matt Wieters
2009: Jason Heyward
2011: Mike Trout

Yes, Delmon Young was once the Minor League Player of the Year, and if you want to spin this trade for the Royals, you can bring up Young's name as a cautionary tale. And after a promising start to his career, Rocco Baldelli was ravaged by injuries and his career ended at age 28. But every other player on that list has gone on to become a well-above-average player at his position. Most of them became stars. At least a few will go into the Hall of Fame.

Based on the list above, Wil Myers has about an 86 percent chance of becoming a true impact player in the major leagues.
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Re: James Shields to KC?

Postby J35J » Mon Dec 10, 2012 6:56 pm

GiantsFan14 wrote:
J35J wrote:F my life...


there are never enough giants fans bro. come on over.


;-)


Nah, I'm actually not all that mad....would I have done it different? Sure. 1) This type of deal should go down only when you are already an 80-85 win team. 2) I would rather of just signed an Anibal Sanchez or Shaun Marcum type and kept the prospects. But I like seeing a MLB rotation forming...with as mediocore as it still is...it's potentially the best rotation we've had in 20 years. 8-o Hopefully over the season 5 of these guys can become a solid MLB rotation...

James Shields
Ervin Santana
Jeremy Guthrie
Wade Davis
Bruce Chen
Felipe Paulino
Danny Duffy
John Lamb
Luis Mendoza
Will Smith
Everett Teaford

I don't care either way for Montgomery or Leonard...whatever, take 'em. Odorizzi just wants to be Wade Davis when he gets older, so thats a wash. So then it's Myers for Shields...eh whatever, it'd be nice to get Shields when you are already a contender like I mentioned but it'll be nice to also have a chance to win every time your #1 goes on the mound.
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Re: James Shields to KC?

Postby mweir145 » Mon Dec 10, 2012 7:40 pm

Skin Blues wrote:Home ERA since start of 2011: 2.78
Road ERA since start of 2011: 3.58

That road ERA looks pretty damn good to me, no? I can't imagine too many guys in the AL East would have managed something like that over the last two seasons.

The ballparks he pitched in do not explain that big of a gap in home vs road ERA. The ballpark and defense did a lot to cover up the fact that this is not an ace. In a neutral environment with a neutral defense (which is how we should assess a pitcher's true value) he's probably a 3.75 true talent ERA pitcher.

If you pitch most of your road games in Fenway, Yankee Stadium, Rogers Centre, and Camden Yards (locations where HRs occur very frequently), I think that goes a very long way to explaining why you genrally do worse on the road than at home. Especially for a pitcher like Shields whose only real issue is allowing the home run ball.

He gets extra points for being so durable, but those innings will catch up to him, just like they do to everybody.

There's no reason to think those innings will catch up to him at any point in the next two seasons, if they even do at all.

We're talking about his true talent, and external factors like facing worse hitting does not mean that he's a better pitcher. But yes, he will be facing worse teams while with KC, both on the road and at home. But Kauffman has been a neutral hitter/pitcher park for the past 3 seasons, while the Trop has been an extreme pitcher's park in 2010/2011/2012. Don't know what numbers you're looking at that show they're equal.

True talent? I'm talking about how he'll do in Kansas City. That's the only thing that matters here (to both the Royals and his fantasy owners). It makes little sense to complain about Shields' home/road splits considering he's going to be pitching in a home park that limits home runs and pitching in a division with much easier opponents and ballparks that don't induce home runs at anywhere near the frequency of the AL East parks. If he was traded to Colorado, there might be some reason to worry about him. Not Kansas City.

Maybe he'll be good, maybe not. personally I'd look for an ERA closer to 4. And yes, regardless of how good he is this year and next, it does nothing to lessen the blow of this terrible decision by the Royals.

Shields has managed a 3.15 ERA over the last two seasons in the toughest division to pitch in in baseball. There is little reason believe that's suddenly going to shoot up to 4.00 when he starts facing teams like MIN, CLEV, CHI, and DET with regularity. Shields should do his job effectively for Kansas City. The issue for them will be getting the rest of the roster good enough to contend.
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Re: James Shields to KC?

Postby JRM4833 » Mon Dec 10, 2012 8:58 pm

MaudDib wrote:Man do prospects get over-hyped. I want to say that I don't love this deal but I don't think it is fair to call it a horrible deal either. The Royals need pitching but have a ton of hitting. Shields isn't an ace but he is a very solid #2 and there were no aces available. Everybody loves Myers right now because he hasn't done anything in the majors yet but there no one really knows what he will turn into. So many prospects bust out or don't turn into the player everyone is sure they will be. Brandon Wood is an extreme example but Pedro Alvarez is one that is very recent that comes to mind. So the Royals traded their top prospect at the peak of his value for a pitcher with a very solid past two years. Maybe they only get two good but there is no guarantee that Myers would have given them 6 excellent years. Maybe he becomes replaces Francouer and then becomes what Francouer was years ago.

Myers has plenty of question marks (high k rate for one) and maybe the Royals don't see him as anything special. Way to early to call this a bad deal. The last big deal (I believe it was the last big deal anyway) that Moore did was the Greinke deal. And I think the Royals did very well in that trade so it is a little premature to call this a horrible trade by the Royals.


Alright now for everyone that wants to flame me....go ahead.


It's not that Myers is a lock to be a great MLB player. The problem is simply his perceived value, along with that of the other prospects. This deal could certainly work out to be a great deal for the Royals, but people simply think they could get more. Personally, if it were Myers for Shields straight up, then I think it would be easier to justify. But the perception is that they emptied the farm (including a top-3 prospect) for a #2 starter. I'm not foolish enough to think I know more than MLB GMs about baseball talent, but given the hype I think they overpaid for Shields (i.e. they could have gotten more for this particular package or given up less for what they got).
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Re: James Shields to KC?

Postby Y`s Guy » Mon Dec 10, 2012 9:28 pm

The Rays were going to blow for another couple of years if they waited for those prospects. Kudos to them for pulling the trigger...

Shields
Ervin Santana
Bruce Chen
Wade Davis and
Luke Hochevar just might be formidable come June.

And remember they have Alex Gordon, Billy Butler, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Salvador Perez getting better each season and then...

Bubba freakin' Starling coming!!
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Re: James Shields to KC?

Postby Skin Blues » Mon Dec 10, 2012 9:56 pm

mweir145 wrote:
Skin Blues wrote:Home ERA since start of 2011: 2.78
Road ERA since start of 2011: 3.58

That road ERA looks pretty damn good to me, no? I can't imagine too many guys in the AL East would have managed something like that over the last two seasons.

I didn't say he wasn't pretty damn good. I said he was significantly better at The Trop vs on the road, an advantage that he will be losing.

mweir145 wrote:
The ballparks he pitched in do not explain that big of a gap in home vs road ERA. The ballpark and defense did a lot to cover up the fact that this is not an ace. In a neutral environment with a neutral defense (which is how we should assess a pitcher's true value) he's probably a 3.75 true talent ERA pitcher.

If you pitch most of your road games in Fenway, Yankee Stadium, Rogers Centre, and Camden Yards (locations where HRs occur very frequently), I think that goes a very long way to explaining why you genrally do worse on the road than at home. Especially for a pitcher like Shields whose only real issue is allowing the home run ball.

It explains some of it. The biggest factor is that Tropicana Field has been the best pitcher's park in the AL for the past 3 seasons (0.83) and KC has been neutral (1.01). His weighted park factor, including half home and half road games, is going from 0.97 (pitcher friendly) to 1.02 (hitter friendly). So he'll be in tougher parks in the Central, albeit against weaker teams. And US Cellular is more of a launching pad than any park in the East, so he's not exactly in fly ball paradise. He also does not get the benefit of the #1 defense in baseball, and as Jeremy Hellickson can attest, that cannot be understated.

mweir145 wrote:
He gets extra points for being so durable, but those innings will catch up to him, just like they do to everybody.

There's no reason to think those innings will catch up to him at any point in the next two seasons, if they even do at all.

They catch up to everybody. Halladay, Sabathia, Haren. He's been great so far and like I said, he gets extra points for being so durable.

mweir145 wrote:
We're talking about his true talent, and external factors like facing worse hitting does not mean that he's a better pitcher. But yes, he will be facing worse teams while with KC, both on the road and at home. But Kauffman has been a neutral hitter/pitcher park for the past 3 seasons, while the Trop has been an extreme pitcher's park in 2010/2011/2012. Don't know what numbers you're looking at that show they're equal.

True talent? I'm talking about how he'll do in Kansas City. That's the only thing that matters here (to both the Royals and his fantasy owners). It makes little sense to complain about Shields' home/road splits considering he's going to be pitching in a home park that limits home runs and pitching in a division with much easier opponents and ballparks that don't induce home runs at anywhere near the frequency of the AL East parks. If he was traded to Colorado, there might be some reason to worry about him. Not Kansas City.

We're evaluating a trade, or at least I was. Every pitcher would get the same big boost by pitching for the Rays, so you need to neutralize his stats to see what he's really worth. The fact that he's facing weaker teams doesn't mean that he's a better pitcher. Overall both divisions are above average in terms of allowing home runs, with the East about 10% more than the Central. And yes HRs are a concern for Shields (although probably not as much as before as he had one of the highest GB% in the majors last year), but he's not immune to other park factors which make Tampa an overwhelming pitcher's park.
mweir145 wrote:
Maybe he'll be good, maybe not. personally I'd look for an ERA closer to 4. And yes, regardless of how good he is this year and next, it does nothing to lessen the blow of this terrible decision by the Royals.

Shields has managed a 3.15 ERA over the last two seasons in the toughest division to pitch in in baseball. There is little reason believe that's suddenly going to shoot up to 4.00 when he starts facing teams like MIN, CLEV, CHI, and DET with regularity. Shields should do his job effectively for Kansas City. The issue for them will be getting the rest of the roster good enough to contend.

I didn't say it'd shoot up to 4, I just think it'll be closer to 4 than it was with Tampa. Say, 3.80 or somewhere around there. I guess we'll see how it goes.
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