In my opinion you should basically never trade a starter for a reliever, but this may be the case where it's worth it.
Tommy Hanson is a decent SP, but:
1. He can't stay healthy. Only 130 innings in 2011, and an injury somewhere around July in 2012 (in the 2nd half he took a hammering).
2. His bad HR/FB of 2012 is not an outlier, it has a twin brother in 2011.
3. He doesn't have the large helpings of GBs (45%+) that elite SPs have, so he has to rely on his K/BB to be north of 3 to be above-average.
I can't believe I'm saying this, but I think the Braves will get more value from this trade. Walden is under team control for one season more, and if Hanson really is "2012 Hanson" or continues to be a 13% HR/FB pitcher, the Braves are making out like bandits.
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Meh, it's OK. If they think his shoulder is just going to keep getting worse then it could work out for them. If he stays at the same level then they probably got hosed. 4 seasons of Walden for about the same cost as 3 seasons of Hanson. Hanson has been worth $13M the past 2 seasons even with the injuries and ineffectiveness, while Walden has been worth $10M over the same period. The ceiling is just so much higher for a SP though, as we can see by Hanson's 2009/2010 when he was worth $30M. No matter how good a pitcher is, he'll never give you $15M of value from the bullpen; however dozens of starters do it every year.
Skin Blues wrote:Meh, it's OK. If they think his shoulder is just going to keep getting worse then it could work out for them. If he stays at the same level then they probably got hosed. 4 seasons of Walden for about the same cost as 3 seasons of Hanson. Hanson has been worth $13M the past 2 seasons even with the injuries and ineffectiveness, while Walden has been worth $10M over the same period. The ceiling is just so much higher for a SP though, as we can see by Hanson's 2009/2010 when he was worth $30M. No matter how good a pitcher is, he'll never give you $15M of value from the bullpen; however dozens of starters do it every year.
Low risk, high reward trade for the Angles. Low risk in the fact that they just give up a middle reliever for a SP that has potential to put up No. 1 stats. If Hanson's shoulder blows out, oh well, they hardly gave up anything.
C-Doumit, Lucroy 1B- Fielder 2B-Pedroia SS-Castro 3B-Longoria CI- Lawrie MI- H. Rameriz OF-Cargo Jennings Heyward U-Morneau Markakis Brown
SP-Price Greinke Zimmerman Moore Anderson RP-Nathan McGee Doolittle Grilli