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Need helping picking keepers

Postby irishstephen071 » Thu Nov 29, 2012 5:23 pm

We get to keep 8 players for as long as we want, there keeper round is just dropped down one round each year kept.
We can keep a max of:
2 in rounds 1-5
2 in rounds 6-10
rest have to be kept in later rounds
(the general concept of this was pretty good so no one could keep a boat load of top players and not trade and run tables every year but now we have been in this league so long that pretty much most of the keepers are young talented players in the late rounds so we are trying to figure out a way to make it fair again but until then it is this way)
Our league is a 5x5 H2H league with OBP instead of Avg and QS instead of Wins

With all that said my team from last year goes as follows
C - Buster Posey(21st rd)
1B - Billy Butler(13th rd)
2B - Allen Craig(24th rd)
3B - Edwin Encarnacion(24th rd)
SS - Erick Aybar(15th rd)
OF - Matt Holliday(4th rd)
OF - Mark Trumbo(24th rd)
OF - Jason Kubel(17th rd)
Util - Alex Rodriguez(5th rd)
BN - David Freese(23rd rd)

SP - Jeremy Hellickson(22nd rd), Mat Latos(22nd rd), Stephen Strasburg(16th rd), Madison Bumgarner(22nd rd), Cliff Lee(2nd rd), Josh Johnson(3rd rd), Hiroki Kuroda(12th rd), Zach McAllister(24th rd), Matt Moore(Rookie Keeper), Jered Weaver(1st rd)

RP - Fernando Rodney(24th rd), Steve Cishek(24th rd), Addison Reed(22nd rd), Craig Kimbrel(2nd rd)

I was thinking my keepers would be a follows:
Buster Posey, Edwin Encarnacion, Mark Trumbo, Jeremy Hellickson, Mat Latos, Stephen Strasburg, Madison Bumgarner, and then its between either Allen Craig, Matt Holliday, or Cliff Lee
Matt Moore is a free rookie keeper in our league (because he started the year with less than 50IP) so I don't take him into account for my actual keepers this year.

It is a 10 team league, I will have the 2nd to last pick in the 1st round and it is a snake draft. I went pitching heavy last year and picked up offense later in draft and through FA/Waiver Wire since you can normally find some gem in the rough every year and it seemed to work out pretty good as I ended up losing in the league championship.

What does everyone think? Any help would be appreciated.
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Re: Need helping picking keepers

Postby MaudDib » Fri Nov 30, 2012 11:44 am

C - Buster Posey(21st rd) ;-D
1B - Billy Butler(13th rd) ;-D
2B - Allen Craig(24th rd) ;-D
3B - Edwin Encarnacion(24th rd) ;-D
SS - Erick Aybar(15th rd)
OF - Matt Holliday(4th rd)
OF - Mark Trumbo(24th rd)
OF - Jason Kubel(17th rd)
Util - Alex Rodriguez(5th rd)
BN - David Freese(23rd rd)

SP - Jeremy Hellickson(22nd rd), Mat Latos(22nd rd) ;-D , Stephen Strasburg(16th rd) ;-D , Madison Bumgarner(22nd rd) ;-D , Cliff Lee(2nd rd), Josh Johnson(3rd rd), Hiroki Kuroda(12th rd), Zach McAllister(24th rd), Matt Moore(Rookie Keeper) ;-D , Jered Weaver(1st rd)

RP - Fernando Rodney(24th rd), Steve Cishek(24th rd), Addison Reed(22nd rd), Craig Kimbrel(2nd rd)

The last one is the toughest. I could see taking Trumbo, Hellickson or Holliday. Trumbo and Hellickson are somewhat gambles as both are good but not great. Trumbo had a fantastic first half but I think he is more likely to repeat the second half and not a guy I would likely buy. Good power numbers but his avg could really hurt you. Hellickson is probably who I would take but he has been getting lucky the past few years and at some point I expect that luck to change. Could happen next year if he gets traded so that is something to keep an eye on. Holliday is probably the safest choice and the only guy you would be keeping in the top 10 rounds so it won't hurt you that much to keep him.
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Re: Need helping picking keepers

Postby kaiser » Fri Nov 30, 2012 12:12 pm

irishstephen071 wrote:We get to keep 8 players for as long as we want, there keeper round is just dropped down one round each year kept.
We can keep a max of:
2 in rounds 1-5
2 in rounds 6-10
rest have to be kept in later rounds
(the general concept of this was pretty good so no one could keep a boat load of top players and not trade and run tables every year but now we have been in this league so long that pretty much most of the keepers are young talented players in the late rounds so we are trying to figure out a way to make it fair again but until then it is this way)
Our league is a 5x5 H2H league with OBP instead of Avg and QS instead of Wins

With all that said my team from last year goes as follows
C - Buster Posey(21st rd) ;-D
1B - Billy Butler(13th rd) ;-D
2B - Allen Craig(24th rd)
3B - Edwin Encarnacion(24th rd) ;-D
SS - Erick Aybar(15th rd)
OF - Matt Holliday(4th rd)
OF - Mark Trumbo(24th rd) ;-D
OF - Jason Kubel(17th rd)
Util - Alex Rodriguez(5th rd)
BN - David Freese(23rd rd)

SP - Jeremy Hellickson(22nd rd) ;-D , Mat Latos(22nd rd), Stephen Strasburg(16th rd) ;-D , Madison Bumgarner(22nd rd) ;-D , Cliff Lee(2nd rd) ;-D , Josh Johnson(3rd rd), Hiroki Kuroda(12th rd), Zach McAllister(24th rd), Matt Moore(Rookie Keeper), Jered Weaver(1st rd) ;-D

RP - Fernando Rodney(24th rd), Steve Cishek(24th rd), Addison Reed(22nd rd), Craig Kimbrel(2nd rd)

I was thinking my keepers would be a follows:
Buster Posey, Edwin Encarnacion, Mark Trumbo, Jeremy Hellickson, Mat Latos, Stephen Strasburg, Madison Bumgarner, and then its between either Allen Craig, Matt Holliday, or Cliff Lee
Matt Moore is a free rookie keeper in our league (because he started the year with less than 50IP) so I don't take him into account for my actual keepers this year.

It is a 10 team league, I will have the 2nd to last pick in the 1st round and it is a snake draft. I went pitching heavy last year and picked up offense later in draft and through FA/Waiver Wire since you can normally find some gem in the rough every year and it seemed to work out pretty good as I ended up losing in the league championship.

What does everyone think? Any help would be appreciated.


Go heavy on the SP. You'll do well.
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Re: Need helping picking keepers

Postby luckygehrig » Fri Nov 30, 2012 12:35 pm

irishstephen071 wrote:We get to keep 8 players for as long as we want, there keeper round is just dropped down one round each year kept.
We can keep a max of:
2 in rounds 1-5
2 in rounds 6-10
rest have to be kept in later rounds

With all that said my team from last year goes as follows
C - Buster Posey(21st rd) ;-D
1B - Billy Butler(13th rd) ;-D
2B - Allen Craig(24th rd)
3B - Edwin Encarnacion(24th rd) ;-D
SS - Erick Aybar(15th rd)
OF - Matt Holliday(4th rd) ;-D
OF - Mark Trumbo(24th rd)
OF - Jason Kubel(17th rd)
Util - Alex Rodriguez(5th rd)
BN - David Freese(23rd rd)

SP - Jeremy Hellickson(22nd rd), Mat Latos(22nd rd), Stephen Strasburg(16th rd) ;-D , Madison Bumgarner(22nd rd) ;-D , Cliff Lee(2nd rd) ;-D , Josh Johnson(3rd rd), Hiroki Kuroda(12th rd), Zach McAllister(24th rd), Matt Moore(Rookie Keeper), Jered Weaver(1st rd)

RP - Fernando Rodney(24th rd), Steve Cishek(24th rd), Addison Reed(22nd rd), Craig Kimbrel(2nd rd) ;-D


The way I see it, the no-brainers are: Posey, Butler, Encarnacion, Strasburg, and Bumgarner. I think a strong case can be made for Cliff Lee too, especially since your league uses QS and not wins.

After that, I went with Holliday because you weren't maxed out of 1-5 keepers yet and he's still a very nice bat to have. The last pick went to Kimbrel just because I think you can repeat your SP strategy and be successful, but dominant closers aren't easy to find.
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Re: Need helping picking keepers

Postby Element » Fri Nov 30, 2012 2:40 pm

MaudDib wrote:C - Buster Posey(21st rd) ;-D
1B - Billy Butler(13th rd) ;-D
2B - Allen Craig(24th rd) ;-D
3B - Edwin Encarnacion(24th rd) ;-D
SS - Erick Aybar(15th rd)
OF - Matt Holliday(4th rd)
OF - Mark Trumbo(24th rd)
OF - Jason Kubel(17th rd)
Util - Alex Rodriguez(5th rd)
BN - David Freese(23rd rd)

SP - Jeremy Hellickson(22nd rd), Mat Latos(22nd rd) ;-D , Stephen Strasburg(16th rd) ;-D , Madison Bumgarner(22nd rd) ;-D , Cliff Lee(2nd rd), Josh Johnson(3rd rd), Hiroki Kuroda(12th rd), Zach McAllister(24th rd), Matt Moore(Rookie Keeper) ;-D , Jered Weaver(1st rd)

RP - Fernando Rodney(24th rd), Steve Cishek(24th rd), Addison Reed(22nd rd), Craig Kimbrel(2nd rd)

The last one is the toughest. I could see taking Trumbo, Hellickson or Holliday. Trumbo and Hellickson are somewhat gambles as both are good but not great. Trumbo had a fantastic first half but I think he is more likely to repeat the second half and not a guy I would likely buy. Good power numbers but his avg could really hurt you. Hellickson is probably who I would take but he has been getting lucky the past few years and at some point I expect that luck to change. Could happen next year if he gets traded so that is something to keep an eye on. Holliday is probably the safest choice and the only guy you would be keeping in the top 10 rounds so it won't hurt you that much to keep him.


Holliday is my last choice as well.
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Re: Need helping picking keepers

Postby MaudDib » Fri Nov 30, 2012 6:22 pm

Surprised so many people would use their 1st round pick to keep Weaver and a 2nd on Lee or Kimbrel. In redraft league you would never even consider using your first or second pick on any of those guys so why keep them at that price. Let Weaver, Lee and Kimbrel back into the draft and see what is available. I am going to assume that even with this crazy draft pick stuff, guys like Braun and Cabrera cost a 1st round pick to keep so there will only be a couple of teams that have a first round pick at all. If that is the case then you probably can get Weaver back or you can get a better player in return if one team has too many 5th round or better keepers. Same goes for the 2nd round pick as well.

Let me know if this assumption is incorrect though. In a 10 team league, I would assume that about 7 owners would NOT have their 1st round pick and about the same for the 2nd round pick. Either that or they are letting a lot of talent hit the draft board which means you would want to have that 1st round pick anyway.
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Re: Need helping picking keepers

Postby NY Knights » Sat Dec 01, 2012 10:10 am

I'm in a deep league with a similar set-up, except we drop players down THREE rounds each year, which accelerates the turnover process, and returns more guys into the annual draft. Taken to extremes to make the point, say you dropped a guy by five rounds each year, someone like a Bryce Harper, even if he went in the 25th or 30th round as a minor leaguer, would end up back in the draft in 5 or 6 seasons, and all of the guys who went anywhere in the first five rounds would automatically get thrown back into the following year's draft. Which gives the guys who finished in the lower spots a much better chance to recover. It creates sort of a middle ground between a long term keeper league and an annual redraft league.

You're right, it's an interesting league structure, and it helps to prevent the same teams winning year after year because they are stacked and can't be broken up. But if it's not working fast enough, maybe it's something to mention to your commish, suggest moving to a faster drop-down structure.
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Re: Need helping picking keepers

Postby irishstephen071 » Sat Dec 01, 2012 11:45 am

NY Knights wrote:I'm in a deep league with a similar set-up, except we drop players down THREE rounds each year, which accelerates the turnover process, and returns more guys into the annual draft. Taken to extremes to make the point, say you dropped a guy by five rounds each year, someone like a Bryce Harper, even if he went in the 25th or 30th round as a minor leaguer, would end up back in the draft in 5 or 6 seasons, and all of the guys who went anywhere in the first five rounds would automatically get thrown back into the following year's draft. Which gives the guys who finished in the lower spots a much better chance to recover. It creates sort of a middle ground between a long term keeper league and an annual redraft league.

You're right, it's an interesting league structure, and it helps to prevent the same teams winning year after year because they are stacked and can't be broken up. But if it's not working fast enough, maybe it's something to mention to your commish, suggest moving to a faster drop-down structure.


Never thought about that, that is a great idea. I know we were looking at like trying to figure out something like depending on the players year could go up or down. Your leagues rule is an interesting one and something I will bring up, I actually kinda like it cause we have such a problem with people keeping great talent in lower rounds. We have had good years every year cause its almost always a different person winning it or at least different people in the playoffs.
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Re: Need helping picking keepers

Postby irishstephen071 » Sat Dec 01, 2012 11:58 am

MaudDib wrote:Surprised so many people would use their 1st round pick to keep Weaver and a 2nd on Lee or Kimbrel. In redraft league you would never even consider using your first or second pick on any of those guys so why keep them at that price. Let Weaver, Lee and Kimbrel back into the draft and see what is available. I am going to assume that even with this crazy draft pick stuff, guys like Braun and Cabrera cost a 1st round pick to keep so there will only be a couple of teams that have a first round pick at all. If that is the case then you probably can get Weaver back or you can get a better player in return if one team has too many 5th round or better keepers. Same goes for the 2nd round pick as well.

Let me know if this assumption is incorrect though. In a 10 team league, I would assume that about 7 owners would NOT have their 1st round pick and about the same for the 2nd round pick. Either that or they are letting a lot of talent hit the draft board which means you would want to have that 1st round pick anyway.


I had to go back and look but last year only 5 of the 10 teams didn't have a 1st rd pick and 9 of 10 had there 2nd rd pick. You asked about guys like Braun and Cabrera, Cabrera is a 1st but Braun is a 19th, McCutchen is a 21st, Bautista is a 20th, Stanton is a 19th, Hanley is a 18th, Verlander is a 15th, Greinke is a 13th, Strasburg is a 17th, Adrian Gonzalez is a 12th, Cueto is a 11th, Fielder is a 8th, Hamilton is a 7th, Kemp is a 6th. Theres more those are just a few to show you, we have been doing this league for quite awhile I wanna say atleast 8+ years if not longer. I think the best thing for us is to up the keeper round jump instead of one round a year maybe two or three something like NY Knights said.
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Re: Need helping picking keepers

Postby irishstephen071 » Sat Dec 01, 2012 12:15 pm

Wanna to say I appreciate every ones in put and everyone has given me plenty to think about cause honestly I've never thought about keeping Billy Butler with 1st base so populated but he always has a high OBP and the Royals are getting better. I'm surprised people aren't higher on Trumbo, I have followed him pretty well and after the allstar break he was dealing with some pretty good injuries like broken rib, sore wrist, sore elbow, etc. so I'm more inclined to think his first half is closer to what he could be not quite as much but closer then his 2nd half. I got him projected out to be a .280/.335/90/35/100 player, he needs to walk a bit more but if you watch him he is almost a Vlad clone( can hit outside the zone with power, most of his HR came from down out of the zone almost in the dirt) but maybe I'm just too high on him, I guess time will tell.
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