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BJ Upton signs with Braves

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BJ Upton signs with Braves

Postby MaudDib » Thu Nov 29, 2012 10:16 am

Free-agent outfielder B.J. Upton has agreed to a five-year deal worth $75.25 million with the Atlanta Braves, a baseball source told ESPN.
The deal is expected to be announced Thursday once Upton passes his physical. It would be the biggest free-agent contract of the offseason so far and the largest in Braves history.


Could be interesting to see him play in a better hitters park.
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Re: BJ Upton signs with Braves

Postby MashinSpuds » Thu Nov 29, 2012 4:02 pm

True, but only if he's a better hitter. He'll be a tricky keeper decision in the offseason given his history, his 2012 season, and his new park.
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Re: BJ Upton signs with Braves

Postby luckygehrig » Thu Nov 29, 2012 4:07 pm

His home/road splits have actually been pretty even over the course of his career.

BA: .252(H)/.255(A)
OBP: .336/.335
SLG: .422/.422
OPS: .758/.757

His BABIP looks like the rate stat with the widest difference with .309 at home and .336 on the road. Even that difference isn't very big.

I think it was a good signing for the Braves, but I wouldn't expect a huge increase in Upton's value. He seems to have settled into a ~.240 hitter with 30/30 potential.
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Re: BJ Upton signs with Braves

Postby GiantsFan14 » Thu Nov 29, 2012 7:26 pm

Seems reasonable for both sides. He's a player who is much more valuable in real baseball than in fantasy baseball imo.
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Re: BJ Upton signs with Braves

Postby Saltydog » Fri Nov 30, 2012 12:09 am

A few things to consider as I move Upton up the draft board:

-The pressure of playing for the organization that drafted you #2 overall is gone. The Rays may have rushed him to the big leagues (before their current philosophy of being patient) without a true position or spot in the batting order. His rookie year he played 3B, SS, LF and DH.

-The maturity of the franchise that he's joining. ATL has an incredibly poised core with McCann, Freeman, Prado, Heyward, where TB has been a refuse for discarded talent (Pena, Rodney) with little impact from homegrown talent (Longoria, maybe Zobrist?)

-Lastly, he's only 28. Don't underestimate the power of motivation. He's closer to where he grew up, and in a market that will appreciate his talent. I'd expect good things for the next 2-3 years.
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Re: BJ Upton signs with Braves

Postby HOOTIE » Fri Nov 30, 2012 9:43 am

GiantsFan14 wrote:Seems reasonable for both sides. He's a player who is much more valuable in real baseball than in fantasy baseball imo.


I think he's much more valuable in fantasy, where sb carries him.
I think 15 mil a year for 5 years, is too much for a 2 WAR player.
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Re: BJ Upton signs with Braves

Postby luckygehrig » Fri Nov 30, 2012 12:20 pm

Saltydog wrote:-The maturity of the franchise that he's joining. ATL has an incredibly poised core with McCann, Freeman, Prado, Heyward, where TB has been a refuse for discarded talent (Pena, Rodney) with little impact from homegrown talent (Longoria, maybe Zobrist?)


I don't know that Tampa's been a discarded talent wasteland. They've done alright with bringing their pitchers along (Price, Shields, Hellickson) and before Longoria there was Crawford. Ever since the new management team took over, they seem to be doing better. They still make some bonehead moves (Damon and Manny), but most organizations make mistakes that look even worse in hindsight.

HOOTIE wrote:I think he's much more valuable in fantasy, where sb carries him.
I think 15 mil a year for 5 years, is too much for a 2 WAR player.


I think his real world and fantasy value is pretty close. His SB and recent power is nice for fantasy, but the low batting average kills. And his defense can carry him and help his value in real life even when he's not hitting.

I agree that it was probably an overpay, but that looks like its going to become the new normal in MLB. With the huge influx of TV money coming into the game, I think player salaries are about to go through the roof.
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Re: BJ Upton signs with Braves

Postby Skin Blues » Fri Nov 30, 2012 12:54 pm

HOOTIE wrote:
GiantsFan14 wrote:Seems reasonable for both sides. He's a player who is much more valuable in real baseball than in fantasy baseball imo.


I think he's much more valuable in fantasy, where sb carries him.
I think 15 mil a year for 5 years, is too much for a 2 WAR player.

He's averaged 3.9 fWAR per season over his 6 years in the majors, estimating his value over that period as over $100M. That is certainly worth $15M/year over 5 years considering he is only 28 years old. If anything it's a bargain, considering the inflated rate that free agents have been signing at.
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Re: BJ Upton signs with Braves

Postby GiantsFan14 » Fri Nov 30, 2012 4:39 pm

Ya I'm not sure where you're getting a 2 win player from, he's a 4 win player with potential to be better.

he has pretty good on base skills which make up for his low BA in real life but not in fantasy. he also plays good defense and his bat plays well for a centerfielder, things which are widely ignored in fantasy.
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Re: BJ Upton signs with Braves

Postby pjalst » Fri Nov 30, 2012 9:34 pm

Saltydog wrote:A few things to consider as I move Upton up the draft board:

-The pressure of playing for the organization that drafted you #2 overall is gone...


He now has the pressure of being the highest paid player to wear the braves uniform.
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