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Izenhart's 5x5 Standard Auction Values 2013 (hitting)

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Re: Izenhart's 5x5 Standard Auction Values 2013 (hitting)

Postby Skin Blues » Mon Nov 26, 2012 4:40 pm

I didn't mention anything about inflation so I don't really know what that comment is referring to. I never said that we should ignore inflation, either. But that's a separate issue than position scarcity. Inflation tends not to be applied uniformly throughout a draft with respect to a single position. For SS/2B it's high early in a draft, but there is a lot of value to be had for middle tier 2B when they go cheap. There are pockets of inflation for each position, which are hard to identify, but in most cases those pockets should be avoided when possible (exception being closers). 1B/OF tend to be undervalued early in a draft/auction and to exploit that, you want to scoop those guys up. 1B especially.

And in a non-competitive league there's nothing wrong with having a $21 player as your big bat, as long as you can get 5-6 of those guys undervalued after the other teams blow their wads on the superstars. I've done this very successfully in the past. The last thing you want to do is overspend early in an auction simply because everybody else is, and then have no money left when the 2nd/3rd tier talent flies off the board at a huge discount. The early overspending is very common in AL/NL only leagues because there are so few great players and teams panic thinking they won't be able to get any of them.
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Re: Izenhart's 5x5 Standard Auction Values 2013 (hitting)

Postby americanleagueroto » Mon Nov 26, 2012 5:11 pm

In my opinion, looking at "strength index" or comparing a player's stats to those of the median player at each position (as Izenhart has done) does much more harm than good when determining value. There's no reason to bump a player's value due to how much better he is compared to those directly below him. This fallacy has been around for a long time, though, and will continue to be an area to be exploited on draft day.


To not use a tier system is a huge draft day mistake in my opnion. (which is all a strength index is) In a 10-14 team mixed league, I agree, it's LESS important, but when you're dealing with an ONLY type league, you can't use principles (or fallacies as opine) that work in certain formats. When you're dealing with 15 starting 2B 15 starting SS in real baseball and have to fil a 2B, SS and MI spot, to not tier the players out, and identify the drop offs of talent at each position, as compared to the drop offs at other positions and how they vary, you're going to fall on your face in an Only league.

And despite showing that Trout is better based on RotoChamp's projections (172 to 140), and still better even when diminishing Trout's RotoChamps projections and leaving Cano's the same (148 to 140), you still say you'd take Cano over Trout. That's fine, but you don't provide any reasoning. Aside from comparing him to Jacoby Ellsbury. I don't see the correlation between a powerful rookie that hit a HR every 18.6 AB in his rookie season to an established slap hitting skinny veteran that dislocated his shoulder a year after he put up a HR every 20.6 AB in his 4th MLB season


First off, that's quite the description of Cano... We'll let opinions differ there. Secondly, you're intro paragraph into this off-review of my article states a lot of the reasoning I would still take Cano over Trout in an AL only Auction draft.

Skin Blues wrote:dealing with position scarcity, to the volatility of a young player's performance, to the overpricing that happens in auction leagues.


Here's another reason in my article

You can find steals later in the draft filling out your cheaper MI and 4th or 5th OF spots

A lot of Trouts value is his incredible SB totals. Not that they're not valuable, I just don't value them as high due to where I can find them, and the price point on that category later in the draft.

Lastly, when I draft in an ONLY league, I might not even roster a player as expensive as Cano or Trout, as it's very risky in this type of format. The point of the article was, if you ARE going to spend that big, why not get similiar production, at a position with a bigger drop off, with spending less money, (exposing yourself to less risk)

If you'd like me to go further into the subject, talk draft strategy for AL Only, tiering, etc, as you felt the need to belittle a post that has a word count, feel free to send me an email and we can chat.

;-D
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Re: Izenhart's 5x5 Standard Auction Values 2013 (hitting)

Postby Skin Blues » Mon Nov 26, 2012 5:44 pm

Wasn't belittling at all, just questioning it. Discussion is good. I won't be offended if you think my opinions are ridiculous. The part I had the biggest issue with was this:

"The point of the article was, if you ARE going to spend that big, why not get similiar production, at a position with a bigger drop off"

I would counter that with: why is it important to target positions with a bigger drop off? If the value is otherwise a wash then sure, pick a reason why to choose one guy or another. But the split in this case wasn't even close; it was 172 to 140 by your own (or Tango's) calculation. And 148 to 140 when you chopped off some of Trout's stats. The reliability of Trout repeating last year's monster season - or even coming close to it - is another concern. And a valid one. But lets just focus on one thing at a time. Is there any evidence that this talent drop off affects a player's value? What is the theory behind it?

There's also the fallacy that "I can get SB late, so I will discount them early on". This is a very questionable theory; the guys you're referring to are one dimensional and will drag you down in 3-4 other categories. That's why they're available so late. Just like Carlos Pena or Mark Reynolds. Nobody would say "I'm not gonna draft Miggy because I can get Carlos Pena late in the draft".

So I guess it was just because you used a couple of the big myths in fantasy baseball in position scarcity and devaluing SBs that caught my eye. I understand that a word count can limit how deep you get into the subject but that's why we have message boards. I'm actually interested in discussing these things; I'm not dead-set in my ways as my beliefs have changed many times before. I just need to see evidence behind the theories.
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Re: Izenhart's 5x5 Standard Auction Values 2013 (hitting)

Postby americanleagueroto » Mon Nov 26, 2012 6:30 pm

I appreciate the clarification.

I would counter that with: why is it important to target positions with a bigger drop off? If the value is otherwise a wash then sure, pick a reason why to choose one guy or another. But the split in this case wasn't even close; it was 172 to 140 by your own (or Tango's) calculation. And 148 to 140 when you chopped off some of Trout's stats. The reliability of Trout repeating last year's monster season - or even coming close to it - is another concern. And a valid one. But lets just focus on one thing at a time. Is there any evidence that this talent drop off affects a player's value? What is the theory behind it?


To me there is no question it affects a players value. In a "normal sized" mixed league, I am not concerned with value in the first round, or in your "big purchase", as you just want the stats and paying full price for Cabrera, Braun etc, (or even a buck or two more) is fine, as the replacement level options are much greater in these league set ups. You'll probably roster a viable replacement, and the wire will have a replacement for that replacement (granted all fractions of what these top guys provide).

In an ONLY league, the replacement level is 0 and typically a league will already be deploying a player at this level before injury or poor performance strikes, making that injury or poor performance much more difficult/impossible to replace.

If you convert projections for both Trout and Cano into auction dollar figures (which is the basis of my article) Trouts converted auction price is already going to start off higher than Cano's for good reason, his projected stat line is more valuable all things being even. Then you add on the inflation that a player with Trouts reputation is going to bring (think about the $50 Albert Pujols of previous years etc) and you're already upside down on your investment. Again, in mixers, fine, in AL only, hold on now.

Back to the talent drop off at certain positions, if you're going to pay big money (debatable as to how smart that is already in ONLY leagues) I'd rather pay that money where a player is going to earn substainally better stats than everyone elses 2B. The inflated price as well as lack of track record for Trout, on top of other OF options being more comparable are just icing to me.

Then there's

The reliability of Trout repeating last year's monster season - or even coming close to it - is another concern. And a valid one.


Which we've already discussed and really is individual to every fantasy player.

For all anyone knows (especially before we get some mock ADP/Auction Values, Cano may be priced way above his converted auction figures as well, making both risky options in AL Only play.

There's also the fallacy that "I can get SB late, so I will discount them early on". This is a very questionable theory; the guys you're referring to are one dimensional and will drag you down in 3-4 other categories. That's why they're available so late. Just like Carlos Pena or Mark Reynolds. Nobody would say "I'm not gonna draft Miggy because I can get Carlos Pena late in the draft".


I completely agree with you until the Pena/Reynolds, HR only crowd.

These guys aren't completely 1 dimensional first off, as they'll provide to runs to a degree and not kill you in BA.

The cost of these players, and the cost of the specific category we're looking for (SB's) is reduced to such a point, you're other targets are already covered by drafting solid mid level bats, which provide pop, runs, rbi's and maintain BA. Also, while I don't target the Trouts (5 tool) or Bourns of the world (3 tool) due to the "inflated" cost of SB's with these players, ultimately the power/run/RBI guys I've spent a significant portion of my budget on will also provide me with X SB's as a base. If I've already met my targets in R, RBI, HR and BA with MI, and an OF spot or two to fill (a position known for players who can swipe bags and maintain a decent BA) I'm not dragging a catergory down at all.

Every draft plays out differently, which is why you need to keep track of your targets as your draft, because you might need to acquire SB's before you get to these late guys, but 8 times out of 10 it works, and the other 2, try to switch plans (sucks, but happens) or get ready to work the wire and make a trade.

The beauty of fantasy is there isn't one way to do it as you know. This has worked for me for the better part of 5 seasons, after trying other ways the 8 years before that. In a couple years, I am sure I'll have to change as the landscape of baseball changes.

Waiting on power to get guys like Pena and Reynolds is a completely different story and does hurt you in other areas, but that's a discussion for another time.

This is fun though! Is it baseball season yet? ;-D
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Re: Izenhart's 5x5 Standard Auction Values 2013 (hitting)

Postby Skin Blues » Tue Nov 27, 2012 2:41 pm

americanleagueroto wrote:If you convert projections for both Trout and Cano into auction dollar figures (which is the basis of my article) Trouts converted auction price is already going to start off higher than Cano's for good reason, his projected stat line is more valuable all things being even. Then you add on the inflation that a player with Trouts reputation is going to bring (think about the $50 Albert Pujols of previous years etc) and you're already upside down on your investment. Again, in mixers, fine, in AL only, hold on now.

OK well if you're saying you'd take Cano at $30 over Trout at an inflated $50, then your argument makes sense. But you have said two things. 1) "Trouts converted auction price is already going to start off higher than Cano's for good reason, his projected stat line is more valuable all things being even." and 2) you stated in your article "If you have the first overall pick, I’d still grab Cano over Trout". I really don't see any argument that justifies this. That's not to say there isn't one, but what you presented seems contradictory. And "I can get steals later in the draft" is not really an argument; you can get every stat later in the draft.

americanleagueroto wrote:Back to the talent drop off at certain positions, if you're going to pay big money (debatable as to how smart that is already in ONLY leagues) I'd rather pay that money where a player is going to earn substainally better stats than everyone elses 2B.

Why?

americanleagueroto wrote:I don't target the Trouts (5 tool) or Bourns of the world (3 tool) due to the "inflated" cost of SB's with these players

From my experience, the cost of SBs in the top-end talent pool is actually deflated, due to the widespread fallacy that they can be added later for a cheaper cost. Not all the time, there are some people that overvalue it, but in general people hate to think that Michael Bourn can be one of the most valuable fantasy players because he's not a slugger.

americanleagueroto wrote:If I've already met my targets in R, RBI, HR and BA with MI, and an OF spot or two to fill (a position known for players who can swipe bags and maintain a decent BA) I'm not dragging a catergory down at all.

Wrong. Unless you finish first place in R, RBI, HR, and BA then you are indeed dragging those categories down by drafting players that will not help those categories and will solely help in SBs. And I really doubt that you can guarantee, on draft day, that you will finish first in the other 4 categories.

americanleagueroto wrote:Waiting on power to get guys like Pena and Reynolds is a completely different story and does hurt you in other areas, but that's a discussion for another time.

Right, waiting on power and settling on Reynolds and Pena does hurt you in other areas. Just like waiting out on SBs are drafting Jordan Schafer or Rajai Davis hurts you in other areas. There tend to be more of the SB-centric players but pretty much all of them are one-dimensional and almost always carry negative overall value due to how bad they are in the other categories.

americanleagueroto wrote:This is fun though! Is it baseball season yet? ;-D

Oh man, I wish it was baseball season. I usually keep occupied with hockey season but now I'm kinda chomping at the bit waiting for more baseball. And for once, that includes optimism about the Blue Jays!
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Re: Izenhart's 5x5 Standard Auction Values 2013 (hitting)

Postby americanleagueroto » Tue Nov 27, 2012 4:39 pm

Not going to beat my head against this one. My targets have nothing to do with placing 1st in any category on draft day. To believe that a player that brings you 25-30 SB, with a .270-.290 BA, will also bring you NEGATIVE counting stats, is foolish. I get that you're not truely believing it's a negative number, but you're completely missing the point, and are stuck in a one track mind. I'll let my success speak for itself, and go our separate ways.

It was a fun discussion, but the fact you continue to call proven ways of playin the game, fallacy, shows your limited, one size fits all approach to fantasy sports. If it works for you that's awesome, but when one wheel slips I feel sorry that you must abandon the team because options 2, 3 & 4 are all fallacy in your fantasy background.

I appreciate the discussion, best of luck this season.
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Re: Izenhart's 5x5 Standard Auction Values 2013 (hitting)

Postby Skin Blues » Tue Nov 27, 2012 5:06 pm

americanleagueroto wrote:To believe that a player that brings you 25-30 SB, with a .270-.290 BA, will also bring you NEGATIVE counting stats, is foolish. I get that you're not truely believing it's a negative number, but you're completely missing the point, and are stuck in a one track mind.

The stats themselves aren't negative, but the value that they bring is most certainly negative. This is hardly an abstract notion; it's pretty much the universal basis for player valuation.

americanleagueroto wrote:the fact you continue to call proven ways of playin the game, fallacy, shows your limited, one size fits all approach to fantasy sports. If it works for you that's awesome, but when one wheel slips I feel sorry that you must abandon the team because options 2, 3 & 4 are all fallacy in your fantasy background.

I'm simply looking for some reasoning behind the old-school assumptions. Maybe they work, maybe they don't. From what I've seen, they don't make logical sense. People can still win in spite of their beliefs in these things, rather than because of them. I'd love to be proven wrong with evidence rather than "I did it and it works". It took major league managers over a hundred years to figure out that batting average was far less important than on-base percentage. You really think that conventional wisdom in fantasy sports is infallible?

americanleagueroto wrote:I appreciate the discussion, best of luck this season.

It's not really a discussion if we both just present our sides and call it a day.
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Re: Izenhart's 5x5 Standard Auction Values 2013 (hitting)

Postby jfg » Thu Nov 29, 2012 9:55 pm

I also think Upton is too high, I'd pay around $22. That said, he probably will go for around what you quote him at, maybe a few dollars less.
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Re: Izenhart's 5x5 Standard Auction Values 2013 (hitting)

Postby OBPlover » Sat Dec 01, 2012 12:01 am

I am high on Ruggiano and low on some others, I expect my list to differ from the norm. I want it to. I'll be one of few people who value Justin Upton over McCutchen. But I'm not looking for last year's stats, I'm trying to guess what next years stats will be. I think Upton has all the tools McCutchen has and hits in a better lineup. One is coming off a down year and I think he will pick it up, while I think I gave McCutchen a .284 BA projection (lower than most) with lower R/RBI totals.



I like the fact that you aren't falling upon standard "regression to the mean" modelling. However, there should be some methodology behind your predictions.
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