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Izenhart's 5x5 Standard Auction Values 2013 (hitting)

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Izenhart's 5x5 Standard Auction Values 2013 (hitting)

Postby Izenhart » Sun Nov 18, 2012 6:04 am

Using a spreadsheet formula that determines player value after inputting player projections I have come up with a rough draft for hitting values. My projections for each player were done very loosely and are probably full of bias. Either way, this is my starting point looking forward. Everyone listed below I am expecting a minimum of 400 at bats. Anyone not listed I either forgot about or don't think they are worth a rank. Enjoy ;-D

1 OF $51 Ryan Braun
2 2B $44 Robinson Cano
3 1B $41 Joey Votto
4 OF $41 Mike Trout
5 3B $40 Miguel Cabrera
6 1B $38 Albert Pujols
7 1B $33 Prince Fielder
8 OF $33 Matt Kemp
9 OF $33 Justin Upton
10 OF $33 Josh Hamilton
11 OF $32 Carlos Gonzalez
12 OF $31 Jose Bautista
13 3B $29 Adrian Beltre
14 3B $28 Hanley Ramirez
15 OF $28 Adam Jones
16 OF $28 Giancarlo Stanton
17 C $27 Buster Posey
18 OF $27 Curtis Granderson
19 1B $26 Edwin Encarnacion
20 3B $26 David Wright
21 SS $26 Troy Tulowitzki
22 1B $25 Billy Butler
23 2B $25 Dustin Pedroia
24 OF $25 Jason Heyward
25 SS $24 Jose Reyes
26 3B $23 Evan Longoria
27 3B $22 Aramis Ramirez
28 C $22 Joe Mauer
29 OF $22 Adrian Gonzalez
30 OF $22 Andrew McCutchen
31 OF $21 Yoenis Cespedes
32 OF $21 Bryce Harper
33 SS $21 Starlin Castro
34 DH $21 David Ortiz
35 1B $20 Paul Goldschmidt
36 2B $20 Ian Kinsler
37 3B $20 Brett Lawrie
38 1B $19 Allen Craig
39 3B $19 Ryan Zimmerman
40 1B $18 Freddie Freeman
41 OF $18 Melky Cabrera
42 OF $18 Jay Bruce
43 3B $17 Pablo Sandoval
44 3B $17 Chase Headley
45 OF $17 Jacoby Ellsbury
46 1B $16 Mark Teixeira
47 C $16 Carlos Santana
48 OF $16 Andre Ethier
49 2B $15 Jason Kipnis
50 3B $15 Will Middlebrooks
51 OF $15 Matt Holliday
52 OF $15 Josh Willingham
53 OF $15 Hunter Pence
54 OF $15 BJ Upton
55 SS $15 Asdrubal Cabrera
56 1B $14 Eric Hosmer
57 1B $14 Anthony Rizzo
58 OF $14 Michael Bourn
59 OF $14 Carl Crawford
60 SS $14 Jimmy Rollins
61 1B $13 Adam LaRoche
62 2B $13 Brandon Phillips
63 2B $13 Jose Altuve
64 3B $13 Manny Machado
65 3B $13 Alex Rodriguez
66 OF $13 Shin-Soo Choo
67 OF $13 Desmond Jennings
68 1B $12 Ryan Howard
69 2B $12 Aaron Hill
70 3B $12 David Freese
71 OF $12 Carlos Beltran
72 OF $12 Justin Ruggiano
73 OF $12 Ichiro Suzuki
74 SS $12 Ian Desmond
75 C $11 Yadier Molina
76 SS $11 Derek Jeter
77 1B $10 Paul Konerko
78 1B $10 Ike Davis
79 OF $10 Alex Gordon
80 1B $9 Corey Hart
81 1B $9 Adam Dunn
82 2B $9 Chase Utley
83 C $9 Matt Weiters
84 OF $9 Norichika Aoki
85 OF $9 Alex Rios
86 2B $8 Dan Uggla
87 3B $8 Pedro Alvarez
88 OF $8 Alfonso Soriano
89 SS $8 Elvis Andrus
90 1B $7 Kendrys Morales
91 2B $7 Ben Zobrist
92 2B $7 Rickie Weeks
93 3B $7 Martin Prado
94 3B $7 Todd Frazier
95 OF $7 Austin Jackson
96 OF $7 Michael Morse
97 1B $6 Chris Davis
98 1B $6 Mark Trumbo
99 C $6 Mike Napoli
100 OF $6 Brett Gardner
101 OF $6 Josh Reddick
102 OF $6 Torii Hunter
103 1B $5 Mark Reynolds
104 C $5 Wilin Rosario
105 OF $5 Nelson Cruz
106 2B $4 Emilio Bonifacio
107 C $4 Miguel Montero
108 OF $4 Shane Victorino
109 OF $4 Ryan Ludwick
110 OF $4 Jayson Werth
111 OF $4 Jason Kubel
112 OF $4 Dexter Fowler
113 OF $4 Coco Crisp
114 1B $3 Brandon Moss
115 2B $3 Michael Young
116 C $3 Brian McCann
117 C $3 Carlos Ruiz
118 OF $3 Carlos Gomez
119 OF $3 Nick Markakis
120 OF $3 Michael Cuddyer
121 SS $3 Erick Aybar
122 SS $3 Danny Espinosa
123 1B $2 Justin Morneau
124 1B $2 Garrett Jones
125 1B $2 Chris Carter
126 2B $2 Neil Walker
127 2B $2 Kyle Seager
128 2B $2 Josh Rutledge
129 3B $2 Mike Moustakas
130 C $2 A.J. Pierzynski
131 C $2 Salvador Perez
132 OF $2 Carlos Quentin
133 OF $2 Angel Pegan
134 OF $2 Alejandro De Aza
135 OF $2 Lorenzo Cain
136 OF $2 Adam Eaton
137 SS $2 Evereth Cabrera
138 SS $2 Alexei Ramirez
139 SS $2 JJ Hardy
140 1B $1 Brandon Belt
141 2B $1 Marco Scutaro
142 2B $1 Howie Kendrick
143 C $1 Jonathan Lucroy
144 C $1 Jesus Montero
145 OF $1 Logan Morrison
146 OF $1 Chris B Young
147 OF $1 Delmon Young
148 OF $1 Drew Stubbs
149 OF $1 Nick Swisher
150 SS $1 Alcides Escobar
151 1B $0 Yonder Alonso
152 1B $0 Mitch Moreland
153 1B $0 Justin Smoak
154 2B $0 Mike Aviles
155 2B $0 Omar Infante
156 2B $0 Trevor Plouffe
157 2B $0 Kelly Johnson
158 2B $0 Daniel Murphy
159 3B $0 Josh Donaldson
160 C $0 John Jaso
161 C $0 Jarrod Saltalamacchia
162 C $0 Ryan Doumit
163 C $0 Alex Avila
164 OF $0 Lucas Duda
165 OF $0 Jon Jay
166 OF $0 Colby Rasmus
167 OF $0 Matt Joyce
168 SS $0 Johnny Perralta
169 1B ($1) Carlos Pena
170 1B ($1) Adam Lind
171 2B ($1) Dustin Ackley
172 2B ($1) Cliff Pennington
173 3B ($1) Kevin Youkilis
174 3B ($1) Jeff Keppenger
175 C ($1) Yasmani Grandal
176 C ($1) J.P. Arencibia
177 C ($1) Russell Martin
178 OF ($1) Denard Span
179 OF ($1) John Mayberry
180 OF ($1) Jose Tabata
181 SS ($1) Jed Lowrie
182 SS ($1) Zack Cozart
183 SS ($1) Yunel Escobar
184 SS ($1) Rafael Furcal
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Re: Izenhart's 5x5 Standard Auction Values 2013 (hitting)

Postby MashinSpuds » Mon Nov 19, 2012 2:03 pm

Thanks for the preview! I do raise my eyebrow at Youkilis being worth -$1. He's got a solid enough season ahead of him imo. Plus, Mike Aviles is ranked ahead of him at $0!
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Re: Izenhart's 5x5 Standard Auction Values 2013 (hitting)

Postby fast dogs » Mon Nov 19, 2012 3:28 pm

Solid starting point, some quick looks:
Too high Bautista 31 J Upton 33 Ruggiano 12
Too low Holliday 15 McCutchen 22 Trumbo 6 A Jackson 7 Desmond 12 Cruz 5
I can't imagine any league where 3rd base Miggy goes for less than Votto. Again, a ;-D for a good initial list
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Re: Izenhart's 5x5 Standard Auction Values 2013 (hitting)

Postby wrveres » Mon Nov 19, 2012 6:29 pm

I'm assuming this is for a single catcher league, and you are using the MI position, as you have 13 catchers, 14 shortstops and 16 secondbasemen all with positive value. If not you should adjust accordingly. Also, why the cutoff at 150?
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Re: Izenhart's 5x5 Standard Auction Values 2013 (hitting)

Postby Izenhart » Tue Nov 20, 2012 1:54 am

wrveres wrote:I'm assuming this is for a single catcher league, and you are using the MI position, as you have 13 catchers, 14 shortstops and 16 secondbasemen all with positive value. If not you should adjust accordingly. Also, why the cutoff at 150?


150 is just where it happened to end as far as projections go into a formula. The values are for 5x5 12 team leagues that start 1 at every IF, 3 OF, and 2 DH. The 2 DH slots per team help even out the value of lesser players regardless of position and look more specifically at raw stats; 13 positive value C's may mean a guy like Posey would be worth a start at 1B, or his value is higher than that of the average 1B, so 13 positive value C's can make sense. Also realize that a value of $1 doesn't mean that player is worth a starting spot, rather just a roster spot. One more thing to consider, sometimes the 8th best guy's stats are nearly identical to the 13th, and a logjam of decent options at the end of a run pushes the value of each closer to $1, which is sort of how I look at catching.

I determine position scarcity differently than most, a guy like Cano got the largest scarcity bump in value because the dropoff between him and the next guy was the largest, but also because the dropoff between him and the average fantasy 2B was significant. (I used the 7th ranked player at a position to help determine median position value). Conversely, the 24th ranked player at a stacked position would get a negative value bump, albeit slight, with 24 DH slots available to be filled.

I am high on Ruggiano and low on some others, I expect my list to differ from the norm. I want it to. I'll be one of few people who value Justin Upton over McCutchen. But I'm not looking for last year's stats, I'm trying to guess what next years stats will be. I think Upton has all the tools McCutchen has and hits in a better lineup. One is coming off a down year and I think he will pick it up, while I think I gave McCutchen a .284 BA projection (lower than most) with lower R/RBI totals.

fast dogs wrote:I can't imagine any league where 3rd base Miggy goes for less than Votto.


Me either! I think people are going to be expecting more triple crown numbers from MCab, but I feel he just had his best season, while Votto may be about to have his. There's a lot of guesswork in this stuff, so when I stray from expected trends like having Votto ranked above Miggy, I double check the numbers and make sure the math is correct.

As far as Youk/Aviles go, I shamefully admit to being a Red Sox fan so take any current or ex-Sox player's value with a grain of salt :-b
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Re: Izenhart's 5x5 Standard Auction Values 2013 (hitting)

Postby Skin Blues » Tue Nov 20, 2012 2:46 am

The valuation system seems very strange... not so much based on the results (although Cano at the top is puzzling) but from the methodology you described. Do you go through and just pick values for each player? If not, how else is Cano's value adjusted based on not only his value relative to the median 2B, but also to the second best 2B?? Did you incorporate position scarcity adjustment based on your own research, or on an article you read somewhere, or what?
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Re: Izenhart's 5x5 Standard Auction Values 2013 (hitting)

Postby Izenhart » Tue Nov 20, 2012 4:22 am

Skin Blues wrote:The valuation system seems very strange... not so much based on the results (although Cano at the top is puzzling) but from the methodology you described. Do you go through and just pick values for each player? If not, how else is Cano's value adjusted based on not only his value relative to the median 2B, but also to the second best 2B?? Did you incorporate position scarcity adjustment based on your own research, or on an article you read somewhere, or what?


Its a formula that changes based on the numbers and its very complicated to put into words that won't confuse.

The basic concept is to first determine the average fantasy player in the average league using this specific setup. A fair amount of data is used to determine a baseline number. Let's say that number would be something close to a (just an example) .272 average, 83 runs, 17 home runs, 81 rbi, 9 SB. Having a full team of this player would give you 6.5 fantasy points per category and finish you in the middle of the pack.

Once a baseline is determined per player, a value can be given, but not before finding the average contribution per player per position. A second baseman with those numbers is more valuable than an OF. This is where position scarcity comes in. Which players/positions will occupy DH and bench spots factor in. The weight of a position player is then given to the median player and adjusted on a scale up or down from that player's value. So if the average second baseman is worth $13 but the median player at the position only returns $9 in value, the upper tier of that position gains more value. I think Cano ended up with a $3 or $4 bump just for being a 2B.

I am not sure how other sites scale it, but I'm happy with how my way works. I hope this explanation was specific enough and understood without having to go into detailed specifics, which again, gets complicated and messy. But the basic theory is here.
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Re: Izenhart's 5x5 Standard Auction Values 2013 (hitting)

Postby americanleagueroto » Sun Nov 25, 2012 4:23 pm

I recently wrote an article on why I'd take Cano over Trout in an AL Only league here - http://rotoprofessor.com/baseball/?p=16606

That said, in a mixed league, I can't see spending that much on Votto. I run my projections at 5 OF with CI MI and 1 UTIL however.
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Re: Izenhart's 5x5 Standard Auction Values 2013 (hitting)

Postby Skin Blues » Mon Nov 26, 2012 2:33 pm

That article is kind of all over the place going from dealing with position scarcity, to the volatility of a young player's performance, to the overpricing that happens in auction leagues. It touches on each topic but doesn't really get in depth about any of them.

In my opinion, looking at "strength index" or comparing a player's stats to those of the median player at each position (as Izenhart has done) does much more harm than good when determining value. There's no reason to bump a player's value due to how much better he is compared to those directly below him. This fallacy has been around for a long time, though, and will continue to be an area to be exploited on draft day.

And despite showing that Trout is better based on RotoChamp's projections (172 to 140), and still better even when diminishing Trout's RotoChamps projections and leaving Cano's the same (148 to 140), you still say you'd take Cano over Trout. That's fine, but you don't provide any reasoning. Aside from comparing him to Jacoby Ellsbury. I don't see the correlation between a powerful rookie that hit a HR every 18.6 AB in his rookie season to an established slap hitting skinny veteran that dislocated his shoulder a year after he put up a HR every 20.6 AB in his 4th MLB season.
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Re: Izenhart's 5x5 Standard Auction Values 2013 (hitting)

Postby Izenhart » Mon Nov 26, 2012 3:47 pm

Skin Blues wrote:In my opinion, looking at "strength index" or comparing a player's stats to those of the median player at each position (as Izenhart has done) does much more harm than good when determining value. There's no reason to bump a player's value due to how much better he is compared to those directly below him. This fallacy has been around for a long time, though, and will continue to be an area to be exploited on draft day.


I certainly see the logic against inflating a player's value (like Cano) because in the end, that's what it is: inflation. Money not earned or expected to be earned. It's the premium you pay for getting a top player though. In theory, that extra $3 spent on Cano means cheaper options will have a greater return %, (Think of a league where everyone overpays in the beginning, and $7 players start to go for $2)

If you completely discount the inflation to the top tier, you many times end up with money in your pocket at the end of the draft. (For the record Braun got a $3.00 bump in my sheet while Cano got a $3.09 bump). If you simply go for value and never pay a penny more than what they are worth, in a non competitive league you will wind up with a $21 player as your big bat. In more competitive leagues you can safely stick closer to their actual value and not have to pay a premium on top players, and for a league like that I may tweak my formula a bit and use a different list. Knowing your competition is always key.
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