Using a spreadsheet formula that determines player value after inputting player projections I have come up with a rough draft for hitting values. My projections for each player were done very loosely and are probably full of bias. Either way, this is my starting point looking forward. Everyone listed below I am expecting a minimum of 400 at bats. Anyone not listed I either forgot about or don't think they are worth a rank. Enjoy
1 OF $51 Ryan Braun 2 2B $44 Robinson Cano 3 1B $41 Joey Votto 4 OF $41 Mike Trout 5 3B $40 Miguel Cabrera 6 1B $38 Albert Pujols 7 1B $33 Prince Fielder 8 OF $33 Matt Kemp 9 OF $33 Justin Upton 10 OF $33 Josh Hamilton 11 OF $32 Carlos Gonzalez 12 OF $31 Jose Bautista 13 3B $29 Adrian Beltre 14 3B $28 Hanley Ramirez 15 OF $28 Adam Jones 16 OF $28 Giancarlo Stanton 17 C $27 Buster Posey 18 OF $27 Curtis Granderson 19 1B $26 Edwin Encarnacion 20 3B $26 David Wright 21 SS $26 Troy Tulowitzki 22 1B $25 Billy Butler 23 2B $25 Dustin Pedroia 24 OF $25 Jason Heyward 25 SS $24 Jose Reyes 26 3B $23 Evan Longoria 27 3B $22 Aramis Ramirez 28 C $22 Joe Mauer 29 OF $22 Adrian Gonzalez 30 OF $22 Andrew McCutchen 31 OF $21 Yoenis Cespedes 32 OF $21 Bryce Harper 33 SS $21 Starlin Castro 34 DH $21 David Ortiz 35 1B $20 Paul Goldschmidt 36 2B $20 Ian Kinsler 37 3B $20 Brett Lawrie 38 1B $19 Allen Craig 39 3B $19 Ryan Zimmerman 40 1B $18 Freddie Freeman 41 OF $18 Melky Cabrera 42 OF $18 Jay Bruce 43 3B $17 Pablo Sandoval 44 3B $17 Chase Headley 45 OF $17 Jacoby Ellsbury 46 1B $16 Mark Teixeira 47 C $16 Carlos Santana 48 OF $16 Andre Ethier 49 2B $15 Jason Kipnis 50 3B $15 Will Middlebrooks 51 OF $15 Matt Holliday 52 OF $15 Josh Willingham 53 OF $15 Hunter Pence 54 OF $15 BJ Upton 55 SS $15 Asdrubal Cabrera 56 1B $14 Eric Hosmer 57 1B $14 Anthony Rizzo 58 OF $14 Michael Bourn 59 OF $14 Carl Crawford 60 SS $14 Jimmy Rollins 61 1B $13 Adam LaRoche 62 2B $13 Brandon Phillips 63 2B $13 Jose Altuve 64 3B $13 Manny Machado 65 3B $13 Alex Rodriguez 66 OF $13 Shin-Soo Choo 67 OF $13 Desmond Jennings 68 1B $12 Ryan Howard 69 2B $12 Aaron Hill 70 3B $12 David Freese 71 OF $12 Carlos Beltran 72 OF $12 Justin Ruggiano 73 OF $12 Ichiro Suzuki 74 SS $12 Ian Desmond 75 C $11 Yadier Molina 76 SS $11 Derek Jeter 77 1B $10 Paul Konerko 78 1B $10 Ike Davis 79 OF $10 Alex Gordon 80 1B $9 Corey Hart 81 1B $9 Adam Dunn 82 2B $9 Chase Utley 83 C $9 Matt Weiters 84 OF $9 Norichika Aoki 85 OF $9 Alex Rios 86 2B $8 Dan Uggla 87 3B $8 Pedro Alvarez 88 OF $8 Alfonso Soriano 89 SS $8 Elvis Andrus 90 1B $7 Kendrys Morales 91 2B $7 Ben Zobrist 92 2B $7 Rickie Weeks 93 3B $7 Martin Prado 94 3B $7 Todd Frazier 95 OF $7 Austin Jackson 96 OF $7 Michael Morse 97 1B $6 Chris Davis 98 1B $6 Mark Trumbo 99 C $6 Mike Napoli 100 OF $6 Brett Gardner 101 OF $6 Josh Reddick 102 OF $6 Torii Hunter 103 1B $5 Mark Reynolds 104 C $5 Wilin Rosario 105 OF $5 Nelson Cruz 106 2B $4 Emilio Bonifacio 107 C $4 Miguel Montero 108 OF $4 Shane Victorino 109 OF $4 Ryan Ludwick 110 OF $4 Jayson Werth 111 OF $4 Jason Kubel 112 OF $4 Dexter Fowler 113 OF $4 Coco Crisp 114 1B $3 Brandon Moss 115 2B $3 Michael Young 116 C $3 Brian McCann 117 C $3 Carlos Ruiz 118 OF $3 Carlos Gomez 119 OF $3 Nick Markakis 120 OF $3 Michael Cuddyer 121 SS $3 Erick Aybar 122 SS $3 Danny Espinosa 123 1B $2 Justin Morneau 124 1B $2 Garrett Jones 125 1B $2 Chris Carter 126 2B $2 Neil Walker 127 2B $2 Kyle Seager 128 2B $2 Josh Rutledge 129 3B $2 Mike Moustakas 130 C $2 A.J. Pierzynski 131 C $2 Salvador Perez 132 OF $2 Carlos Quentin 133 OF $2 Angel Pegan 134 OF $2 Alejandro De Aza 135 OF $2 Lorenzo Cain 136 OF $2 Adam Eaton 137 SS $2 Evereth Cabrera 138 SS $2 Alexei Ramirez 139 SS $2 JJ Hardy 140 1B $1 Brandon Belt 141 2B $1 Marco Scutaro 142 2B $1 Howie Kendrick 143 C $1 Jonathan Lucroy 144 C $1 Jesus Montero 145 OF $1 Logan Morrison 146 OF $1 Chris B Young 147 OF $1 Delmon Young 148 OF $1 Drew Stubbs 149 OF $1 Nick Swisher 150 SS $1 Alcides Escobar 151 1B $0 Yonder Alonso 152 1B $0 Mitch Moreland 153 1B $0 Justin Smoak 154 2B $0 Mike Aviles 155 2B $0 Omar Infante 156 2B $0 Trevor Plouffe 157 2B $0 Kelly Johnson 158 2B $0 Daniel Murphy 159 3B $0 Josh Donaldson 160 C $0 John Jaso 161 C $0 Jarrod Saltalamacchia 162 C $0 Ryan Doumit 163 C $0 Alex Avila 164 OF $0 Lucas Duda 165 OF $0 Jon Jay 166 OF $0 Colby Rasmus 167 OF $0 Matt Joyce 168 SS $0 Johnny Perralta 169 1B ($1) Carlos Pena 170 1B ($1) Adam Lind 171 2B ($1) Dustin Ackley 172 2B ($1) Cliff Pennington 173 3B ($1) Kevin Youkilis 174 3B ($1) Jeff Keppenger 175 C ($1) Yasmani Grandal 176 C ($1) J.P. Arencibia 177 C ($1) Russell Martin 178 OF ($1) Denard Span 179 OF ($1) John Mayberry 180 OF ($1) Jose Tabata 181 SS ($1) Jed Lowrie 182 SS ($1) Zack Cozart 183 SS ($1) Yunel Escobar 184 SS ($1) Rafael Furcal
Team Izzy C Mauer 1 E5 2 Cano 3 ARam S Rollins CI LaRoche MI Altuve O Melky, Pagan, Morse, Hunter, Ruggiano SP Lee, Fister, Estrada, McCarthy, Lohse RP Chapman, Jansen, Frieri, Fujikawa Bench 1 Hart S Cabrera O Eaton U Ortiz P Marcum P Miller P Fernandez
Thanks for the preview! I do raise my eyebrow at Youkilis being worth -$1. He's got a solid enough season ahead of him imo. Plus, Mike Aviles is ranked ahead of him at $0!
Solid starting point, some quick looks: Too high Bautista 31 J Upton 33 Ruggiano 12 Too low Holliday 15 McCutchen 22 Trumbo 6 A Jackson 7 Desmond 12 Cruz 5 I can't imagine any league where 3rd base Miggy goes for less than Votto. Again, a for a good initial list
I'm assuming this is for a single catcher league, and you are using the MI position, as you have 13 catchers, 14 shortstops and 16 secondbasemen all with positive value. If not you should adjust accordingly. Also, why the cutoff at 150?
wrveres wrote:I'm assuming this is for a single catcher league, and you are using the MI position, as you have 13 catchers, 14 shortstops and 16 secondbasemen all with positive value. If not you should adjust accordingly. Also, why the cutoff at 150?
150 is just where it happened to end as far as projections go into a formula. The values are for 5x5 12 team leagues that start 1 at every IF, 3 OF, and 2 DH. The 2 DH slots per team help even out the value of lesser players regardless of position and look more specifically at raw stats; 13 positive value C's may mean a guy like Posey would be worth a start at 1B, or his value is higher than that of the average 1B, so 13 positive value C's can make sense. Also realize that a value of $1 doesn't mean that player is worth a starting spot, rather just a roster spot. One more thing to consider, sometimes the 8th best guy's stats are nearly identical to the 13th, and a logjam of decent options at the end of a run pushes the value of each closer to $1, which is sort of how I look at catching.
I determine position scarcity differently than most, a guy like Cano got the largest scarcity bump in value because the dropoff between him and the next guy was the largest, but also because the dropoff between him and the average fantasy 2B was significant. (I used the 7th ranked player at a position to help determine median position value). Conversely, the 24th ranked player at a stacked position would get a negative value bump, albeit slight, with 24 DH slots available to be filled.
I am high on Ruggiano and low on some others, I expect my list to differ from the norm. I want it to. I'll be one of few people who value Justin Upton over McCutchen. But I'm not looking for last year's stats, I'm trying to guess what next years stats will be. I think Upton has all the tools McCutchen has and hits in a better lineup. One is coming off a down year and I think he will pick it up, while I think I gave McCutchen a .284 BA projection (lower than most) with lower R/RBI totals.
fast dogs wrote:I can't imagine any league where 3rd base Miggy goes for less than Votto.
Me either! I think people are going to be expecting more triple crown numbers from MCab, but I feel he just had his best season, while Votto may be about to have his. There's a lot of guesswork in this stuff, so when I stray from expected trends like having Votto ranked above Miggy, I double check the numbers and make sure the math is correct.
As far as Youk/Aviles go, I shamefully admit to being a Red Sox fan so take any current or ex-Sox player's value with a grain of salt
Team Izzy C Mauer 1 E5 2 Cano 3 ARam S Rollins CI LaRoche MI Altuve O Melky, Pagan, Morse, Hunter, Ruggiano SP Lee, Fister, Estrada, McCarthy, Lohse RP Chapman, Jansen, Frieri, Fujikawa Bench 1 Hart S Cabrera O Eaton U Ortiz P Marcum P Miller P Fernandez
The valuation system seems very strange... not so much based on the results (although Cano at the top is puzzling) but from the methodology you described. Do you go through and just pick values for each player? If not, how else is Cano's value adjusted based on not only his value relative to the median 2B, but also to the second best 2B?? Did you incorporate position scarcity adjustment based on your own research, or on an article you read somewhere, or what?
Skin Blues wrote:The valuation system seems very strange... not so much based on the results (although Cano at the top is puzzling) but from the methodology you described. Do you go through and just pick values for each player? If not, how else is Cano's value adjusted based on not only his value relative to the median 2B, but also to the second best 2B?? Did you incorporate position scarcity adjustment based on your own research, or on an article you read somewhere, or what?
Its a formula that changes based on the numbers and its very complicated to put into words that won't confuse.
The basic concept is to first determine the average fantasy player in the average league using this specific setup. A fair amount of data is used to determine a baseline number. Let's say that number would be something close to a (just an example) .272 average, 83 runs, 17 home runs, 81 rbi, 9 SB. Having a full team of this player would give you 6.5 fantasy points per category and finish you in the middle of the pack.
Once a baseline is determined per player, a value can be given, but not before finding the average contribution per player per position. A second baseman with those numbers is more valuable than an OF. This is where position scarcity comes in. Which players/positions will occupy DH and bench spots factor in. The weight of a position player is then given to the median player and adjusted on a scale up or down from that player's value. So if the average second baseman is worth $13 but the median player at the position only returns $9 in value, the upper tier of that position gains more value. I think Cano ended up with a $3 or $4 bump just for being a 2B.
I am not sure how other sites scale it, but I'm happy with how my way works. I hope this explanation was specific enough and understood without having to go into detailed specifics, which again, gets complicated and messy. But the basic theory is here.
Team Izzy C Mauer 1 E5 2 Cano 3 ARam S Rollins CI LaRoche MI Altuve O Melky, Pagan, Morse, Hunter, Ruggiano SP Lee, Fister, Estrada, McCarthy, Lohse RP Chapman, Jansen, Frieri, Fujikawa Bench 1 Hart S Cabrera O Eaton U Ortiz P Marcum P Miller P Fernandez
That article is kind of all over the place going from dealing with position scarcity, to the volatility of a young player's performance, to the overpricing that happens in auction leagues. It touches on each topic but doesn't really get in depth about any of them.
In my opinion, looking at "strength index" or comparing a player's stats to those of the median player at each position (as Izenhart has done) does much more harm than good when determining value. There's no reason to bump a player's value due to how much better he is compared to those directly below him. This fallacy has been around for a long time, though, and will continue to be an area to be exploited on draft day.
And despite showing that Trout is better based on RotoChamp's projections (172 to 140), and still better even when diminishing Trout's RotoChamps projections and leaving Cano's the same (148 to 140), you still say you'd take Cano over Trout. That's fine, but you don't provide any reasoning. Aside from comparing him to Jacoby Ellsbury. I don't see the correlation between a powerful rookie that hit a HR every 18.6 AB in his rookie season to an established slap hitting skinny veteran that dislocated his shoulder a year after he put up a HR every 20.6 AB in his 4th MLB season.
Skin Blues wrote:In my opinion, looking at "strength index" or comparing a player's stats to those of the median player at each position (as Izenhart has done) does much more harm than good when determining value. There's no reason to bump a player's value due to how much better he is compared to those directly below him. This fallacy has been around for a long time, though, and will continue to be an area to be exploited on draft day.
I certainly see the logic against inflating a player's value (like Cano) because in the end, that's what it is: inflation. Money not earned or expected to be earned. It's the premium you pay for getting a top player though. In theory, that extra $3 spent on Cano means cheaper options will have a greater return %, (Think of a league where everyone overpays in the beginning, and $7 players start to go for $2)
If you completely discount the inflation to the top tier, you many times end up with money in your pocket at the end of the draft. (For the record Braun got a $3.00 bump in my sheet while Cano got a $3.09 bump). If you simply go for value and never pay a penny more than what they are worth, in a non competitive league you will wind up with a $21 player as your big bat. In more competitive leagues you can safely stick closer to their actual value and not have to pay a premium on top players, and for a league like that I may tweak my formula a bit and use a different list. Knowing your competition is always key.
Team Izzy C Mauer 1 E5 2 Cano 3 ARam S Rollins CI LaRoche MI Altuve O Melky, Pagan, Morse, Hunter, Ruggiano SP Lee, Fister, Estrada, McCarthy, Lohse RP Chapman, Jansen, Frieri, Fujikawa Bench 1 Hart S Cabrera O Eaton U Ortiz P Marcum P Miller P Fernandez
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by Izenhart » Sun Nov 18, 2012 6:04 am 
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