Kimbos Beard wrote:
MaudDib wrote: Medlen had an outstanding second half but we all know that will regress. The question is by just how much and we have very little to base that information on. He has very little track record in the minors, his first half numbers are too small of a sample size to mess with and the second half was too extreme. I think Urban is probably pretty close to right on the numbers. I might go mid 3 ERA and knock his K rate to about 7.5 or 8 per 9 but I could see him any where in the top 50 of SP. Because SP is so deep even a top 50 guy will still have solid numbers. If I gave you a 3.47 ERA and 140 K's, that would be pretty close which is Jarrod Parker numbers from last year but according to ESPN he ranked 42. Of course all of this is depends on your own leagues scoring but a good exercise anyway. You also have to worry about just how many innings the guy can give you. He pitched a career high at 137 last year so expecting him to top 180 would be pretty extreme for most teams to do these days.
I agree with your analysis on Morse.
As far as Medlen, especially in a keeper league I think he is a definite top 20-30 pitcher. Your innings point is legit, but I feel like the Braves know what they are doing. While the Nationals were bumbling around with Strasburg last year, the Braves had a common sense approach to stretching Medlen out which I think probably allowed him to heal longer and also had him pitching his best ball at the end of the year. I agree with the regression analysis that has been stated and the way I look at it as long he is healthy worst case scenario he pitches to a 3.50 ERA and 140k's but his upside is so much higher. The difference between he and Parker (who I happen to like and owned last year) is that Parker's high bar is 3.47 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. Is it possible Parker improves next year, absolutely but its still asking him to do something he hasn't done before, whereas I know Medlen is capable of pitching at a higher level. So if Parker is in the 40-45 range, Medlen has to be much higher.
I am not really going to argue much with what you say. I think Medlen could easily end up being a top 20 SP but I also think he could easily drop out of the top 50. While we can look at his K/9 and BB/9 and all those other stats, he doesn't have enough of a track record to get a good feeling on what his norms are. Even if he stays healthy, there is no guarantee that he keeps his ERA under 4. Every year there are numerous pitchers that have lousy years with no advanced stats telling us of his downfall. I would even say that guys with such small samples are more likely to disappoint then a guy with a long track record. Just looking at the guys he drafted last year in Moore and Hudson, both were solid bets to be top 50 SP with many expecting top 30 numbers out of them. Neither panned out the way people expected even though both had a lot more history to go off of.
Again, I am not really arguing here because I think Medlen can be a top 50 guy, I just want to make sure he isn't being labeled anything more than that just yet. Way too much can happen which includes injury. Another guy people loved last year (including me) was Luebke. I doubt very many people thought he would have arm trouble let alone so quickly. He had a very similar year back in 2011 but even after SD protected him similarly to Medlen, he still got hurt.
I always feel that too many people jump on the new great player only to see him struggle the next year and in doing so look over guys who have a long history of good not great numbers. I would be fine grabbing Medlen if he falls to me but I wouldn't be willing to make him my #3 SP (which would be top 30 in a 12 team league) because there are safer options out there. If he fell to me as a #5 guy, I would then grab him in a heart beat because of the upside but too many question marks to take him much earlier. For the OP, this is a little different because he doesn't have much better to choose from other than Morse but this has turned into more about Medlen then just who he should keep.