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Choosing Keepers

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Choosing Keepers

Postby Kimbos Beard » Wed Nov 14, 2012 4:39 pm

12 Team Keeper League Yahoo Standard 5x5. No limit on how long I can keep these players or at what price.

My Lock Keepers are: Tulo, Longoria and Pedroia.

Choose three from the following

Michael Morse
Carlos Santana
Desmond Jennings
Kris Medlen
Brandon Morrow

I have a feeling that Jennings should be one clearly but I wasn't ready to list him as a lock just yet until I got some other opinions. As always 100% WHIR
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Re: Choosing Keepers

Postby MaudDib » Wed Nov 14, 2012 6:36 pm

Choose three from the following

Michael Morse
Carlos Santana ;-D
Desmond Jennings ;-D
Kris Medlen
Brandon Morrow

These are the easy choices of that group. Too much upside compared the rest of the competition. I think I might go with Morse as the last spot. Medlen is tough because he pitched great but I just don't buy it. Something tells me that he won't repeat or even get close enough that he is worth keeping. Add in that SP is pretty deep and I think I take a flyer that if Morse can stay healthy, he will be well worth owning.
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Re: Choosing Keepers

Postby Urban Cohorts » Wed Nov 14, 2012 9:29 pm

Your locks are fine. For the last spots...

I think I would go with Jennings as the 4th. I think he has the most upside of all the players listed there and provides you some nice speed.

For the 5th keeper, I would go with Medlen. He has a decent pedigree and while he won't retain the insane level of production that he had in 2012, I think he is a safe bet for a top 20-30 SP. He has great control, an excellent GB%, and improved his K/9 dramatically during the second half. His BABIP, LOB%, and HR/FB% will regress, but I think a lot of this will be offset by his improving K/9 and high GB%. Will his ERA be below 2? No. Will his FIP be ~2.5? No. But this is a guy who could post a low 3 ERA with above average K and WHIP numbers.

I love Santana, but in a standard league with 1 catcher, he is not a keeper IMO. He may go crazy at some point in time, but it will be much easier to redraft him compared to Medlen.

Both Morrow and Morse have talent but they have injury and/or performance issues. So I'd pass on them. They'll be easier to redraft as well.
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Re: Choosing Keepers

Postby Element » Wed Nov 14, 2012 11:20 pm

Kimbos Beard wrote:Choose three from the following

Michael Morse
Carlos Santana ;-D
Desmond Jennings ;-D
Kris Medlen ;-D
Brandon Morrow
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Re: Choosing Keepers

Postby Frenchiegangsta9 » Thu Nov 15, 2012 1:57 am

Thanks for your advice on my post.
I would keep the 3 hitters from your list of 5. The 2 pitchers that you would be sending back into the draft pool should be available after the 5th round or much later.
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Re: Choosing Keepers

Postby Urban Cohorts » Thu Nov 15, 2012 7:59 am

I don't think I ever listed the third. Just to clarify- Jennings, Medlen, and Santana.

Frenchiegangsta9 wrote:The 2 pitchers that you would be sending back into the draft pool should be available after the 5th round or much later.


How will Medlen be available after the 5th round or much later? In a 12 team league with (I'm assuming) 6 keepers a piece, that removes 72 players from the draft. I don't think Medlen will be around when the 122 pick comes up (which equates to a 11th round pick).
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Re: Choosing Keepers

Postby Frenchiegangsta9 » Thu Nov 15, 2012 9:16 am

Urban Cohorts wrote:I don't think I ever listed the third. Just to clarify- Jennings, Medlen, and Santana.

Frenchiegangsta9 wrote:The 2 pitchers that you would be sending back into the draft pool should be available after the 5th round or much later.


How will Medlen be available after the 5th round or much later?


There is a very simple answer to your question: We obviously have a difference in opinion. In your mind, you value Medlen much higher than I do. I know its shocking in an open forum such as this where everyone shares their own thoughts.
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Re: Choosing Keepers

Postby Kimbos Beard » Thu Nov 15, 2012 11:45 am

Thanks for all the advice. I guess it boils down to philosophy on Medlen. I usually am one that does not reach for starting pitching but I know I will be drafting at towards the end of the first round which will be around player 80 so I am concerned that if I don't keep a pitcher I will be forcing myself to spend my first or second pick on a pitcher when perhaps a better value might fall.

This is the second year of our keeper (we converted from a redraft) and I think the managers are still feeling it out in terms of how many pitchers to keep etc. Last year I kept all hitters and got forced into drafting pitching a little later and took Matt Moore, Daniel Hudson and Shaun Marcum in rounds 8, 10 and 11, figuring rather than having one stud or upper tier pitcher i would have 3 solid pitchers, one who had the potential to be an ace. Well that didnt really work out so I am a little more hesitant about just going all in without a pitcher again and forcing my self into the same draft strategy.

Not sure if there is a question there or just rambling.
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Re: Choosing Keepers

Postby kaiser » Thu Nov 15, 2012 3:58 pm

Kimbos Beard wrote:12 Team Keeper League Yahoo Standard 5x5. No limit on how long I can keep these players or at what price.

My Lock Keepers are: Tulo, Longoria and Pedroia.

Choose three from the following

Michael Morse
Carlos Santana ;-D
Desmond Jennings ;-D
Kris Medlen ;-D
Brandon Morrow

I have a feeling that Jennings should be one clearly but I wasn't ready to list him as a lock just yet until I got some other opinions. As always 100% WHIR
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Re: Choosing Keepers

Postby Urban Cohorts » Thu Nov 15, 2012 6:05 pm

Frenchiegangsta9 wrote:There is a very simple answer to your question: We obviously have a difference in opinion. In your mind, you value Medlen much higher than I do. I know its shocking in an open forum such as this where everyone shares their own thoughts.


No, what I find shocking is how you can make a statement (see below) with zero evidence to back it up. Aside from gut feeling I guess.

Frenchiegangsta9 wrote:The 2 pitchers that you would be sending back into the draft pool should be available after the 5th round or much later.


In your mind, what makes Medlen a 5th round (or much later) draftee? Elaborating on this would provide some actual input to the original question. And if your reasoning is sound, then maybe the OP (and myself) might re-think where we value Medlen.

I don't mean to be confrontational here, but my answer has some reasoning and thought behind it.

For the 5th keeper, I would go with Medlen. He has a decent pedigree and while he won't retain the insane level of production that he had in 2012, I think he is a safe bet for a top 20-30 SP. He has great control, an excellent GB%, and improved his K/9 dramatically during the second half. His BABIP, LOB%, and HR/FB% will regress, but I think a lot of this will be offset by his improving K/9 and high GB%. Will his ERA be below 2? No. Will his FIP be ~2.5? No. But this is a guy who could post a low 3 ERA with above average K and WHIP numbers.


I'm not saying you haven't thought things out, but please do post why you feel the way you do.
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