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Epic Trade

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Re: Epic Trade

Postby AussieDodger » Wed Nov 14, 2012 1:28 am

In the last few months:

1. Hanley for Nathan Eovaldi blah
2. Heath Bell + $8mil for Yordy Cabrera (i.e nothing)
3. J. Reyes/Josh Johnson/Buerhle for a fistful of lottery tickets and Jeff Mathis

I don't think Loria could attract more snark if he tried. Maybe that's why he's on the big bucks.


Under/over 2 days until people are irrationally high on the Blue Jays?
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Re: Epic Trade

Postby mweir145 » Wed Nov 14, 2012 1:37 am

AussieDodger wrote:Under/over 2 days until people are irrationally high on the Blue Jays?

Probably. They're not good enough to win the East yet in my mind. The hole in LF is significant, Romero is coming off a brutal season, and Adam Lind is a terrible option at DH as long as he's being asked to hit LHP. The Jays still need to add.
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Re: Epic Trade

Postby AussieDodger » Wed Nov 14, 2012 2:22 am

AussieDodger wrote:In the last few months:

1. Hanley for Nathan Eovaldi blah
2. Heath Bell + $8mil for Yordy Cabrera (i.e nothing)
3. J. Reyes/Josh Johnson/Buerhle for a fistful of lottery tickets and Jeff Mathis

I don't think Loria could attract more snark if he tried. Maybe that's why he's on the big bucks


Under/over 2 days until people are irrationally high on the Blue Jays?


Sorry I forgot:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/09/marlins-to-lower-payroll-for-2013.html

Marlins To Lower Payroll For 2013

By Ben Nicholson-Smith [September 24, 2012 at 7:46am CST]

Considerable uncertainty surrounds Miami’s manager and front office with ten days remaining in the regular season, but one thing about the 2013 Marlins is clear: they’re lowering payroll. The Marlins will likely scale payroll back to the $70-80MM range after spending a franchise-record $95MM in 2012, Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald reports.

The team lost money this season, Spencer writes. Miami moved into its new stadium after spending aggressively on free agents including Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle and Heath Bell only to disappoint on the field (66-86 record so far). The Marlins have committed $67.5MM to next year's team, so their financial flexibility will be limited this coming offseason.



The 70-80mil range? Try the 10mil range :-°
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Re: Epic Trade

Postby AussieDodger » Wed Nov 14, 2012 3:03 am

Oh wait, there's more:

http://www.sbnation.com/2012/11/13/3642438/miami-marlins-fire-sale-parking

Andrew Baggarly

@CSNBaggs
#Marlins only team that charges media to park, and you must buy it on their Web site and pay handling fees, too. Cost $78 for 4-game series.


LOL WUT
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Re: Epic Trade

Postby thedude » Wed Nov 14, 2012 5:12 am

[quote="mweir145"][quote="thedude"][quote="Rany Jazayerli"]MIA paid Reyes & Buehrle $16M COMBINED in 2012 and are now trading them for a boatload of prospects. It's brilliant, in a horribly evil way.[/quote]


This is kind of the point. The Marlins basically did an NBA-esque sign and trade. The Jays gave away a huge chunk of the farm for two guys they could have had last year without losing a single prospect.[/quote]
If by huge chunk of their farm, you mean none of their top pitching (Sanchez, Syndegaard) or positional (d'Arnaud) prospects, then yes. You are right that theoretically the Jays could have signed such top players last offseason, but it's a little bit easier said then done to sell a guy on a Toronto team that hasn't been to the playoffs in 20 years.

This deal is a remarkable win for the Blue Jays. They gave up nothing of current value beyond Escobar (Alvarez is a SP without a breaking ball, Hech is a SS without a bat, Marisnick and Nicolino are essentially lottery picks, and Jeff Mathis is Jeff Mathis). It's the kind of deal that I've been hoping to see for about 12 years now. If Rogers is actually ready to spend money on this team like the big market team it is (and I'm not going to say entirely they are yet), this could be the start of a new era.[/quote]

This trade certainly makes the Jays better. But they gave up good propects. Nicolino was rated as Sickles top 20 pitching prospect following the season. Marisnick was rated by baseball America in the 2012 midsesson rankings as the Hays second best propspect, 37th best overall.

Prospects do have current value. They are an asset used to acquire other players. Once used they cannot be spent on other trades (or held onto and groomed into MLB players). Yes they gave up little which will play at the MLB level in 2013, but they all have value.

Yes, your team still has good players in the minors, but those players leaving have value. Yes, you got better. Yes the Marlins are having a fire sale. Nevertheless, why didn't the Jays simply sign these guys last offseason without losing these pieces? I believe that is a point that is getting overlooked by those quick to condemn the Marlins.
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Re: Epic Trade

Postby Urban Cohorts » Wed Nov 14, 2012 5:46 am

Frenchiegangsta9 wrote:This trade reminds me of the Red Sox/Dodgers players/contracts swap.


Except the Dodgers got Adrian Gonzalez. And though he did have a sharp drop in the HR department, he was still a very good hitter.

The players the Jays brought in are certainly good and will definitely help them out over the next couple of seasons. And given the state of the AL East and the Jays' best player (Bautista) aging, this may have been the right move.

Looking at the trade, is Jose Reyes really worth $17.5 million over the next 5 years (ages 30-35)? Logic would say that someone his age with his set of skills is not going to be a sound investment past 2014. And Reyes had a great 2nd half of 2012 when he was hitting in front of Stanton. Now he goes back into the leadoff spot where he struggled. Still a top tier SS but again, once 2015 rolls around, this is going to be a major burden.

Bonifacio could be a decent player, but to expect totals similar to 2011 would be a mistake. That nice season was BABIP induced. And he needs to stay healthy too. Is he an upgrade for the Jays? If he plays 2B, he will be an upgrade with the glove, but how much of a hitting upgrade over Kelly Johnson will he be?

Buehrle will not be worth close to the $15-16 million per year over the next 3 years. He didn't pitch well in the NL East. He was serviceable, but how does a move to the AL East help him? This division is loaded with good hitters and small parks. If his GB% wasn't on such a decline I wouldn't be worried.

Josh Johnson is certainly better than Buehrle and costs less, so that is a huge plus. But how well will he transition to the AL East? Are his injury problems past him?

mweir145 wrote:This deal is a remarkable win for the Blue Jays. They gave up nothing of current value beyond Escobar...


The prospects the Jays gave up weren't nothing of value. They didn't give up their best guys but Marisnick and Nicolino have some trade value and upside.

It is a win in the short term, especially with the AL East being up for grabs (except the Sox). But is this remarkable in the long term? Hell no. Reyes and Buehrle are going to be vastly overpaid in a couple of seasons. And who knows if JJ will resign with them.

If Romero returns to form, Santos comes back healthy, Encarn repeats, Lawrie grows, and Bautista posts MVP like numbers then the Jays should take the division this year or the next. But they tied up a whole lot of money in doing so. And that money is going to come back to bite them in the arse in a couple of years.
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Re: Epic Trade

Postby thedude » Wed Nov 14, 2012 6:36 am

Urban Cohorts wrote:
Frenchiegangsta9 wrote:This trade reminds me of the Red Sox/Dodgers players/contracts swap.


Except the Dodgers got Adrian Gonzalez. And though he did have a sharp drop in the HR department, he was still a very good hitter.

The players the Jays brought in are certainly good and will definitely help them out over the next couple of seasons. And given the state of the AL East and the Jays' best player (Bautista) aging, this may have been the right move.

Looking at the trade, is Jose Reyes really worth $17.5 million over the next 5 years (ages 30-35)? Logic would say that someone his age with his set of skills is not going to be a sound investment past 2014. And Reyes had a great 2nd half of 2012 when he was hitting in front of Stanton. Now he goes back into the leadoff spot where he struggled. Still a top tier SS but again, once 2015 rolls around, this is going to be a major burden.

Bonifacio could be a decent player, but to expect totals similar to 2011 would be a mistake. That nice season was BABIP induced. And he needs to stay healthy too. Is he an upgrade for the Jays? If he plays 2B, he will be an upgrade with the glove, but how much of a hitting upgrade over Kelly Johnson will he be?

Buehrle will not be worth close to the $15-16 million per year over the next 3 years. He didn't pitch well in the NL East. He was serviceable, but how does a move to the AL East help him? This division is loaded with good hitters and small parks. If his GB% wasn't on such a decline I wouldn't be worried.

Josh Johnson is certainly better than Buehrle and costs less, so that is a huge plus. But how well will he transition to the AL East? Are his injury problems past him?

mweir145 wrote:This deal is a remarkable win for the Blue Jays. They gave up nothing of current value beyond Escobar...


The prospects the Jays gave up weren't nothing of value. They didn't give up their best guys but Marisnick and Nicolino have some trade value and upside.

It is a win in the short term, especially with the AL East being up for grabs (except the Sox). But is this remarkable in the long term? Hell no. Reyes and Buehrle are going to be vastly overpaid in a couple of seasons. And who knows if JJ will resign with them.

If Romero returns to form, Santos comes back healthy, Encarn repeats, Lawrie grows, and Bautista posts MVP like numbers then the Jays should take the division this year or the next. But they tied up a whole lot of money in doing so. And that money is going to come back to bite them in the arse in a couple of years.


Exactly. The best asset in this trade was Johnson. This is a win now trade for the Jays. They must look at the Yankees looking to cut payroll and the Red Sox having already cut payroll, and decide that this is their year to make a move.

As for the Marlins, they won 69 games last year with all these players. I doubt they are much worse in 2013, and they got some prospects while shedding players they overpaid for last year. Yup Loria has continued to betray the trust of Florida, but they should have known better than to give the Marlins a publicly financed stadium.
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Re: Epic Trade

Postby Skin Blues » Wed Nov 14, 2012 9:33 am

Now this is a good move. Overpriced, sure. But huge upgrades at SP and SS. Glad to see the uber-efficient focusing on borderline MLB starters gone out the window. Now all we need are a couple big bats for 1B/LF and we're set.

AussieDodger wrote:In the last few months:

1. Hanley for Nathan Eovaldi blah
2. Heath Bell + $8mil for Yordy Cabrera (i.e nothing)
3. J. Reyes/Josh Johnson/Buerhle for a fistful of lottery tickets and Jeff Mathis

I don't think Loria could attract more snark if he tried. Maybe that's why he's on the big bucks.


Under/over 2 days until people are irrationally high on the Blue Jays?

Don't forget Anibal Sanchez and Omar Infante. They're not superstars, but they're better than anything they have left not named Giancarlo.
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Re: Epic Trade

Postby mweir145 » Wed Nov 14, 2012 9:39 am

This money is supposed to come back and bite the richest owner in baseball in the ass? They can handle paying all of this and more with the millions upon millions they make off owning the Jays and their television rights. Due to their incredible failures, it seems people forget that Toronto is one of the biggest markets in professional sports (and that all their teams are run by a massive and incredibly profitable media corporation). And if the team fails over the next few years and they end up having to try to dump those two contracts, whatever, at least they're finally trying to win for the first time (outside of perhaps 2006) since they bought this franchise. That's a tremendous step in itself for Rogers and the Jays...actually trying to win instead of just going along their meaningless treadmill of mediocrity while BS'ing the fans into buying their tickets every year through unjustified hype.

Reyes, Buerhle, and Johnson all have their own issues and question marks, but overall they all represent major upgrades on what the Jays had (probably about 10 wins worth). For what they gave up (Escobar and some lottery tickets), it's a huge coup for this team going forward.

The Jays had to make a decision about what to do with this Bautista window they had. Their choices were to go all-in, trade Bautista away and start rebuilding again to try to win at some indefinite point down the road, or to keep meandering along the same mediocre path that they have for most of the last 12 years. They chose the only option that even has a chance of making the Jays a winning team any time soon and I will take that. I suspect every other Jays fan will too.
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Re: Epic Trade

Postby thedude » Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:29 am

mweir145 wrote:This money is supposed to come back and bite the richest owner in baseball in the ass? They can handle paying all of this and more with the millions upon millions they make off owning the Jays and their television rights. Due to their incredible failures, it seems people forget that Toronto is one of the biggest markets in professional sports (and that all their teams are run by a massive and incredibly profitable media corporation).



Well Guggenheim Partners (the owners of the Dodgers) arguably have more financial riches than Rogers, but that is besides the point. How much money is put into a team is dependent entirely on how much profit the baseball team is likely to make.
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