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John Farrell & DCarpenter to Red Sox, Mike Aviles to Jays

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Re: John Farrell & DCarpenter to Red Sox, Mike Aviles to Jay

Postby SpecialFNK » Thu Oct 25, 2012 10:40 pm


Joe Frisaro of MLB.com reports that Mike Redmond "hit it out of the park" during his interview for the Marlins' managerial vacancy Wednesday.
Frisaro thinks that the fact the Marlins reached out immediately to Redmond is "another sign that he was at the top of the team’s list," and it sounds like the former catcher didn't do anything but enhance his chances with his interview. Reds pitching coach Bryan Price is also in the mix for the job, but it sounds like Redmond, who is currently the manager for the Blue Jays' High-A affiliate in Dunedin, is the clear favorite for the job.

with Redmond working this past season in the Jays minor league system, do they get a first shot to hire him as a manager?
why aren't the Jays getting things going with interviewing people, like this guy.
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Re: John Farrell & DCarpenter to Red Sox, Mike Aviles to Jay

Postby mweir145 » Thu Oct 25, 2012 11:05 pm

SpecialFNK wrote:

Joe Frisaro of MLB.com reports that Mike Redmond "hit it out of the park" during his interview for the Marlins' managerial vacancy Wednesday.
Frisaro thinks that the fact the Marlins reached out immediately to Redmond is "another sign that he was at the top of the team’s list," and it sounds like the former catcher didn't do anything but enhance his chances with his interview. Reds pitching coach Bryan Price is also in the mix for the job, but it sounds like Redmond, who is currently the manager for the Blue Jays' High-A affiliate in Dunedin, is the clear favorite for the job.

with Redmond working this past season in the Jays minor league system, do they get a first shot to hire him as a manager?
why aren't the Jays getting things going with interviewing people, like this guy.

As far as I know, they don't want Richmond.
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Re: John Farrell & DCarpenter to Red Sox, Mike Aviles to Jay

Postby kab21 » Fri Oct 26, 2012 12:31 am

thedude wrote:Aviles showed a great glove this past season. He does not have the bat to be a regular though.


He has plenty bat to be a regular especially if he bumps his avg up to his KC days.
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Re: John Farrell & DCarpenter to Red Sox, Mike Aviles to Jay

Postby thedude » Fri Oct 26, 2012 8:20 am

kab21 wrote:
thedude wrote:Aviles showed a great glove this past season. He does not have the bat to be a regular though.


He has plenty bat to be a regular especially if he bumps his avg up to his KC days.



The last two years he has hit in the 250s with an OBP under .290.
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Re: John Farrell & DCarpenter to Red Sox, Mike Aviles to Jay

Postby bigh0rt » Fri Oct 26, 2012 9:03 am

thedude wrote:
kab21 wrote:
thedude wrote:Aviles showed a great glove this past season. He does not have the bat to be a regular though.


He has plenty bat to be a regular especially if he bumps his avg up to his KC days.



The last two years he has hit in the 250s with an OBP under .290.
With BABIPs of .276 and .269, respectively. With KC he was batting .325 and .304 in his two full seasons with BABIPs of .357 and .327, respectively. So really, yeah, if he's able to get his AVG closer to .300 than .250, a lot of which appears to be BABIP driven, he'll be a reasonable regular bat, who hits lefties well, and provides some flexibility in the field. He's walking at the same clip as he was when his AVG was high.
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Re: John Farrell & DCarpenter to Red Sox, Mike Aviles to Jay

Postby Skin Blues » Fri Oct 26, 2012 10:08 am

Career .308 OBA. The past 2 years he's put up .282 and .289 OBAs. Yeah his BABIP stinks, but that's true of most crappy hitters. People think BABIP regresses to .300 for hitters like it does for pitchers, which is not the case. He's lost a step now that he's in his early 30s and has declined pretty badly since his decent 2010 season (in which he was still barely above the league average OBA). As a defensive replacement that's not a huge issue, but he's not an MLB regular. He's in the Ryan Theriot/Yuni Betancourt/Cliff Pennington camp as far as offense goes. There's about a 1% chance he's a starter in 2013, and the Jays don't even have a 2B.
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Re: John Farrell & DCarpenter to Red Sox, Mike Aviles to Jay

Postby kab21 » Fri Oct 26, 2012 11:32 am

thedude wrote:The last two years he has hit in the 250s with an OBP under .290.


You do realize that you're talking about roughly 220 games?

People think BABIP regresses to .300 for hitters like it does for pitchers, which is not the case. He's lost a step now that he's in his early 30s and has declined pretty badly since his decent 2010 season (in which he was still barely above the league average OBA)


I certainly don't think that BAPIP regresses. I think you're projecting based on not much more than a full season's worth of games. He has a career BAPIP of .300 which is way above the .260 that he's put up in the last 220 games. How is that he's lost a step but people are claiming that he's gotten better on defense.

I also don't think people really have any idea just how bad MI's are as hitters. Aviles could easily be an average hitter and defender.
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Re: John Farrell & DCarpenter to Red Sox, Mike Aviles to Jay

Postby Skin Blues » Fri Oct 26, 2012 11:56 am

It's not just 220 games, it's his most recent 220 games. Projection systems typically use 50-33-17 weighting for previous 3 seasons, and that's not arbitrary. That's weighted 83% towards the prior two seasons, so I'd say his terrible 2011 and 2012 numbers are much more relevant that his merely average 2008 and 2010 numbers. It's not like he was a superstar to begin with. Adam Lind cleared irrevocable waivers as a 28 year old that was only a few years removed from a .400 wOBA.
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Re: John Farrell & DCarpenter to Red Sox, Mike Aviles to Jay

Postby kab21 » Tue Oct 30, 2012 12:34 pm

Skin Blues wrote:It's not just 220 games, it's his most recent 220 games. Projection systems typically use 50-33-17 weighting for previous 3 seasons, and that's not arbitrary. That's weighted 83% towards the prior two seasons, so I'd say his terrible 2011 and 2012 numbers are much more relevant that his merely average 2008 and 2010 numbers. It's not like he was a superstar to begin with. Adam Lind cleared irrevocable waivers as a 28 year old that was only a few years removed from a .400 wOBA.


I don't think you really understand what most teams get out of the SS position. He wasn't terrible in 2011/2012. He was actually average offensively.
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Re: John Farrell & DCarpenter to Red Sox, Mike Aviles to Jay

Postby Skin Blues » Tue Oct 30, 2012 4:05 pm

Oh, I fully understand how bad shorstops typically are at hitting. However, last year Aviles was 17th out of 19 qualifying shortstops in wOBA. However you slice it, that is not "average". Overall the past 2 seasons he's 20th out of 24 shortstops in wOBA with at least 850 PAs. The only ones worse are Brendan Ryan (a defensive wizard), Clint Barmes, Ryan Theriot, and Cliff Pennington. At a position where nothing is expected of the bat, he's still damn near the bottom. He's played good SS defense but somehow at 2B and 3B he's been below average over his career. Considering Toronto already has two of the best defensive shortstops in the league, they will probably get no value out of his glove, anyway. There aren't many MLB players that would have been more useless to the Blue Jays than Mike Aviles.
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